Just four tankers and six bulk carriers have passed through the strait from the start of the ceasefire. Only one of those tankers is not Iranian
Just 10 vessels have passed through Strait of Hormuz since
the Middle East war ceasefire took effect, according to maritime tracking data,
amid lingering fears about using the strategic waterway.
Iran and the United States said the 167 kilometre (104
mile) strait between the Gulf and the Indian Ocean would reopen after the
two-week truce was announced on Wednesday.
But statements by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and
Israel’s attacks on Lebanon despite the ceasefire have cast a shadow over the
strait, which in normal times handles about a fifth of global crude oil and
liquefied natural gas.
More than five weeks after the war erupted with U.S. and
Israeli strikes on Iran, hundreds of ships with thousands of crew remain stuck
either side of the strait. The International Energy Agency says the war has
caused the most severe supply disruption ever to the global
oil market.
Here is what we know about shipping in the Strait:
Dire strait for tankers
Just four tankers and six bulk carriers have passed through
the strait from the start of the ceasefire up to Thursday, according to
maritime data provider Kpler.
Only one of those tankers, the “MSG,” is not Iranian.
The Gabon-flagged ship went through Thursday with around
7,000 tonnes of Emirati fuel oil, and is headed to India, according to the
MarineTraffic monitor.
A dozen other vessels appeared to be on course to pass
through the waterway, and all were either coming from or going to Iran, or
displayed ties with countries not hostile to Iran. That signals little real
change from traffic before the ceasefire.
“The Strait remains as open or closed as it was” before the
ceasefire plan emerged, shipping journal Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard
Meade told a briefing.
Traffic in the past week was “90 per cent below normal
levels and it was almost entirely being driven by Iranian trade,” said Bridget
Diakun, a Lloyd’s List Intelligence analyst.
Traffic is expected to remain at a maximum 10-15 passages a
day “if the ceasefire holds”, according to Kpler analyst Ana Subasic.
Of the 315 passages by commodity carriers from March 1 to
April 8, 202 were by oil and gas tankers, and most were heading east towards
the Gulf of Oman, Kpler data showed. A majority involved ships coming from or
heading to Iran.
Anger over tolls
Iran’s possible imposition of a toll for ships to pass
through the strait looks set to be a key point of contention at peace talks
opening in Pakistan Friday.
While Iran agreed to reopen the thoroughfare during the
two-week truce with the United States, it has also spoken of a toll system to
fund reconstruction following punishing U.S.-Israeli attacks.
The U.S. and European Union were quick to denounce the idea
Thursday.
“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers
going through the Hormuz Strait,” Trump wrote Thursday on social media. “They
better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”
In a later post, Trump said Iran was doing a “very poor”
job of allowing oil to pass through the waterway.
“That is not the agreement we have!” he wrote.
Iran-approved route
Iran announced alternative routes through the strait on
Thursday, citing the risk of sea mines in the waterway’s main zone. The IRGC
set out routes that go near Iran’s Larak Island.
The IRGC said ships could only use the strait in
collaboration with the Iranian navy, according to intelligence firm Vanguard
Tech.
Apart from three Omani tankers that passed through last
week near Oman’s coast, recent transits have used the Iranian-approved route,
with some ships reportedly paying a fee.
Shipping industry representatives told AFP that other
rumours indicated ships had to be on an approved list, or that countries would
be ranked, with ships from countries friendly to Iran receiving better
conditions.
800 ships stuck
Many shipowners and shipping associations are unsure
whether ships would be able to safely pass from the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman,
even if the ceasefire holds.
Leaving the Gulf now “would not be advisable” without
coordinating with the United States and Iran, Jakob Larsen, chief safety and
security officer for the international shipping association BIMCO told AFP on
Wednesday.
Around 800 ships have been stuck in the Gulf since the war
started on February 28, according to Lloyd’s List. German shipping giant
Hapag-Lloyd has said it will not resume traffic on the route.
Some 172 million barrels of crude and refined products on
187 tankers were at sea in the region as of Tuesday, according to Kpler.
Thirty vessels targeted
No new attacks on ships have been reported since the
ceasefire started.
The IRGC claimed three attacks on ships between Saturday
and Tuesday, and one has been confirmed by the International Maritime
Organization (IMO).
Thirty commercial ships, including 13 tankers, have been
attacked or have reported incidents in the region since March 1, according to
the IMO, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre and Vanguard Tech.
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