This week, President Vladimir Putin announced a significant development: Russia has lowered its threshold for deploying its nuclear arsenals. This decision was a direct response to President Joe Biden’s approval for Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with America-supplied long-range missiles. The rapid and drastic escalation of what was once a regional conflict now places us on the brink of a potential world war, with grave implications for global security.
Russia has long warned that it regarded the U.S. providing Ukraine with long-range missiles as a red line. “It would substantially change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” Putin said in September. “This will mean that NATO countries, the USA and European states, are fighting with Russia.”
In the past, driven by the desire to avoid provoking Putin and not to escalate the Russia-Ukraine war into a wider conflict, the Biden administration denied the Ukrainian government’s repeated requests for long-range missiles or the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). There were also concerns that the U.S. lacked sufficient ATACMS supply to replenish what Ukraine would use.
However, the Biden administration recently made a significant shift in its approach, driven by two key factors. The administration’s perspective on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine changed as Russia expanded its involvement by reportedly bringing in an estimated 10,000 North Korean soldiers to fight Ukrainian troops. North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un likely sacrifices the lives of his soldiers in exchange for made-in-Russa weaponry and cash (Russia reportedly pays about $2,000 a month for each North Korean soldier.) The introduction of North Korean soldiers underscores the evolving and complex nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Another factor behind the Biden administration’s decision was Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the recent election. One of Trump’s campaign promises was to find a peaceful solution to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signaled that the Biden administration is now working to send as much military aid as possible to Ukraine before Trump takes office next January. During a recent European meeting, Blinken declared, “President Biden is committed to make sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door between now and Jan. 20.”
On Sunday evening, Biden announced his approval of Ukrainian forces to use America-supplied long-range missiles to strike inside Russia. Each rocket costs around $1.5 million. Biden and his staff, who were concerned for months that such a move would provoke Putin, are now suddenly dismissing that concern and insisting it does not amount to an escalation. Donald Trump Jr. responded on X, “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives.”
On Tuesday this week, Ukraine fired eight US-supplied longer-range missiles at Russian territory. U.S. officials estimated that Russia intercepted two out of the eight. But Russia’s military declared that it shot down five missiles, and only one caused some damage at one of its military facilities.
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, denounced “That Atacms was used repeatedly overnight against Bryansk Region is of course a signal that they [the US] want escalation … We will be taking this as a renewed face of the Western war against Russia and we will react accordingly.” Russia President Putin followed Lavrov’s remark by lowering the threshold for Russia’s use of its nuclear weapon, allowing “for a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power.”
While the Biden administration officials are downplaying Russia’s response, some countries took Russia’s announcement seriously. The Swedish government sent five million pamphlets titled, “If Crisis or War Comes” to residents this week. The pamphlet warned that “the global security situation increases the risks that nuclear weapons could be used,” and provided residents with instructions on how to stockpile food and seek shelter in the event of a nuclear attack.
Gen. Mike Flynn, former national security adviser during Trump’s firm term, sounded the alarm on X, accusing Biden of “sleepwalking us into WWIII,” and calling for his removal. In his Substack post, Flynn provided more detailed analysis. He called ATACMS offensive weapons that “can cause a multitude of civilian casualties.” He asked, “If Russia had announced it had provided missiles to Mexico and authorized their use to attack Americans living in San Diego, Los Angeles, Tucson, Phoenix, El Paso, and Corpus Christi, what would you expect the U.S. Government would do?” It seems no one from the Biden administration is either willing or capable of answering this important question.
Flynn provided a list of recommendations, including calling on Congress to impeach Biden and urging Trump to “make contact with President Putin and his staff to de-escalate the situation as best as can be done.” Congress and the Trump team ought to take General Flynn’s warning and recommendations seriously. The previous two World Wars also began with small regional conflicts, and they rapidly grew into global crises.
While the world is focused on Russia and Ukraine, we should also be aware of another potential complication in this intricate situation: North Korea’s boots on the ground. Even though North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-Un doesn’t care about the loss of lives of North Korean soldiers, he may seek to use any casualty suffered by the North Korean troops as a pretense for a drastic response. North Korea possesses not only nuclear weapons but also the capability to deliver these weapons through its land-based missile systems. North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) can reach parts of the continental U.S.
Kim has also demonstrated in recent years that despite the small size of his nation and the economic challenges the country faces, he likes to write his own playbook most brazenly and doesn’t take orders from other superpowers, be it China, Russia, or the U.S. What makes him even more dangerous than Putin is that he is the most unpredictable X factor in any scenario.
By authorizing Ukraine to use America-supplied long-range weapons to attack Russia, Biden escalated the war between Russia and Ukraine. It endangers the U.S. and its European allies. Even if we are not at the brink of WWIII, the Biden administration is leaving behind a terrible situation for the incoming Trump administration, making it harder to seek a peaceful resolution.
We are still two months away from Trump’s inauguration, which is a long time for an active war, as the situation on the ground can quickly shift from bad to worse. We must pray that we can all make it to Jan. 20, 2025, without setting the world on fire.