Battleground Georgia is a must-win state for Donald Trump -- having carried it in 2016, then losing it in excruciatingly narrow fashion four years later. The electoral math for a 2024 Trump victory is really hard to fathom without Georgia in his column. The state has been volatile and competitive for multiple cycles. In 2018, Brian Kemp barely held off Stacey Abrams in the gubernatorial election, about which she proceeded to lie incessantly (her election lies were excused, celebrated, and even rewarded by many of the same Democrats and journalists who claim to abhor such things). Trump lost to Biden there in 2020, then a collapse in GOP turnout allowed both US Senate seats to fall to the Democrats in early 2021 runoffs. By 2022, Kemp dramatically expanded his victory margin in a rematch against Abrams, thumping her by almost eight points. The GOP swept every statewide, state-level office and performed well in the legislative elections that same year, but again lost the US Senate race.
Suffice it to say that Georgia has been decidedly purple lately. Given the stakes, and how badly Trump needs the Peach State to topple in his direction, political observers have been anticipating the final poll from the Atlanta Journal Constitution and the University of Georgia. It dropped today. And here's what it found:
That four-point margin for Trump is roughly double the RealClearPolitics average in Georgia, in which he leads by about two points. For reference, the AJC/UGA poll nailed Biden's (+1) victory margin in 2020, but underestimated Trump's victory margin there in 2016. They had Trump ahead by two points, but he won it by five. Delving too deeply into the crosstabs is sometimes a fool's errand when it comes to polling, but these observations from Georgia-based commentator Erick Erickson are worth flagging:
It seems to me that if Trump wins younger voters, and there's a double-digit gender gap in his favor, and black turnout is relatively weak, the survey's (+4) topline will understate Trump's victory margin. Meanwhile, it looks like Democrats are starting to sound the alarm about the Harris campaign's standing in some other critical swing states. NBC News reports:
The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the path to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents. But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris’ campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states. Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy... “There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan...While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said. “Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
Perhaps they're worried about Michigan because of voters like this man:
This also isn't very bullish talk from a top Harris advisor, who seems to be raising Trump's supposed 'ceiling,' while telegraphing her campaign's new focus on winning a "narrow" victory:
Maybe Plouffe is managing expectations on his side. Maybe these sorts of quotes and reports are meant to lull Republicans into a false sense of confidence. Polls continue to point to a very close election. Anything can happen.