Fears of election-related unrest are prompting many Americans to reconsider their travel plans in November. This development comes amid polling showing that most Americans believe there will be violence after the election.
Travelers like Emily Reeve and her husband, of Portland, Oregon, usually travel for Thanksgiving. But this year, they are staying home. “I’m worried about being in a potentially volatile situation,” Reeve told NBC News. Leaders in the airline industry have chimed in on the matter, affirming that many people are concerned about the possibility of unrest:
Anxiety around the 2024 vote is causing some consumers to rethink where, when and with whom to travel, industry experts and travel agents say. Federal authorities, meanwhile, say their security procedures are sound heading into Election Day, Nov. 5.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian recently told CNBC he expected consumers to take “a little bit of a pause” in the weeks around the election, as the carrier has seen in the past. “People like to be home during the election period. They don’t want to be out traveling,” he said. “I don’t think they want to be spending money until they understand what’s going to happen.”
While the pandemic upended travel during the 2020 vote, Delta also saw demand flag in the run-up to the 2016 ballot before bookings rebounded in subsequent weeks. United Airlines executives said this month that they expect a similar pattern and “don’t think there’s anything to be surprised by.”
Still, 64% of U.S. adults said they would avoid traveling in the U.S. out of concerns about unrest, depending on who wins, according to a recent poll by the travel site the Vacationer. About a quarter said they’d stay home only if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, while just 16% said they’d hold off only if former President Donald Trump wins; 24% said they’re staying put no matter the outcome, and nearly 36% said the outcome wouldn’t affect their plans.
Businesses are also on alert, said Kelly Soderlund, a spokesperson for the online business travel management company Navan. Its domestic flight bookings are down 19% for the week of the election compared with the same week last year. Bookings for the following week, though, are 42% higher than the preceding seven days and 82% higher than the equivalent week a year ago.
Heightened security at airports and polling places seems to confirm people’s fears about election-related violence. Jeffrey Price, an aviation security consultant, told NBC News that there would probably be increased airport security measures, with both uniformed and plainclothes officers being present to act if necessary.
A recent Scripps/Ipsos poll showed that Americans of all political stripes are worried about post-election unrest. About 62 percent of respondents said they believe violence is “somewhat” or “very likely” – especially among battleground state residents.
While most expect some form of violence after the election, respondents still indicated confidence that their votes will be counted accurately.
Economic uncertainty also adds another dimension to worries about violence. “The driving factor is the uncertainty around what the economy may be like after the election,” travel agent Sonia Bhagwan told NBC News.
These worries have translated into decreased bookings for flights. Domestic flight bookings for the week of the election have dropped by a whopping 19 percent compared to the same period last year. Bookings for the following week showed a strong rebound, however.
Further compounding fears about election-related violence is the likelihood that it will be a close race. The current Real Clear Polling average shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.1 percent.
If these numbers hold, it is likely that, regardless of who wins, the results will be contested in some fashion. This could further indicate the possibility of violence after the election’s outcome is determined. No matter who wins, there will be a sizeable chunk of the population that is dissatisfied with the results – which could inspire some to take violent action.