That’s brutal. No matter how you cut it, the fact that Democrats have lost significant ground with black and Latino male voters must embarrass the Democrats. For many, I’m sure they dismissed the polls as outliers. It can't be ignored in the two-week stretch here. Trump looks like he will have the best performance with black voters since Nixon (via Politico):
A new poll that includes large oversamples of young voters of color shows Donald Trump has massively increased his support among groups that he previously performed poorly with in 2020.
[…]
The GenForward survey, which ran from Sept. 26 to Oct. 6 by the University of Chicago and included 2,359 eligible voters 18 to 40 years old, included some fascinating findings:
- A quarter of young Black men are supporting Trump. (Black men overall backed President Joe Biden nearly nine to one in 2020.)
- 44 percent of young Latino men said they'd back Trump, an improvement over the roughly 38 percent who backed him in 2020.
- For her part, Harris is at 58 percent with Black men, 37 percent with Latinos and 57 percent with Asian American and Pacific Islander men.
- Kamala Harris is doing incredibly well among women of color. A majority of Black (63 percent), Asian American and Pacific Islander (60 percent) and Latina (55 percent) women say they will vote for Harris.
- White women are nearly evenly split between Harris (44 percent) and Trump (40 percent).
Yet, Harris remains underwater with black women compared to Biden’s 2020 numbers.
Nate Cohn at The New York Times offered five reasons why we’re seeing a shift with these key Democratic voter groups:
- They don’t mind the alleged dog whistles
- Hope and Change is dead
- They’re concerned about the economy
- They’re not offended; they’re entertained
- Trump is ‘normal’ to these voters now