Three weeks and change until the presidential election, and things aren't looking good for the Harris/Walz ticket. Donald Trump and JD Vance have narrowed the gap in most of the national polls, and in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages, the Republican candidates are leading in all but one of the swing state polls. The current breakdown as of this writing, on Sunday, October 13th, presents a picture that should have the Republicans cautiously optimistic.
- Arizona: Trump +1.0
- Nevada: Trump +0.2
- Wisconsin: Harris +0.3
- Michigan: Trump +0.9
- Pennsylvania: Trump +0.1
- North Carolina: Trump +0.5
- Georgia: Trump +0.5
Very cautiously optimistic.
None of these, mind you, are numbers that should have either campaign resting on their laurels. The same razor-thin margin that Harris has in Wisconsin applies as well to Donald Trump in Nevada and Pennsylvania, and he only has very slightly better odds in North Carolina and Georgia. Even so, it's better to have a razor-thin lead in six states than one - and as always, the trends tell the tale.
Since the first of October, Trump has been opening the gap up in Pennsylvania, barring one NY Times/Sienna poll that has Kamala Harris up by three points; I'm skeptical of outliers like that when they go against the trend. The other October polls show a clear trend; AmGreatness/Tipp (10/7-10/9) has Trump up by one, Insider Advantage (10/7-10/8) has Trump up by two, The Hill/Emerson (10/5-10/8) has Trump up by one, while Quinnipiac (10/3-10/7) has Harris leading by two. It's a slight trend, but it's there.
We can make the same observation about Nevada, where there are two polls in October, with a Wall Street Journal (9/28-10/8) poll showing Trump up by six, while The Hill/Emerson (10/5-10/8) shows Harris up by one.
Yes, these are still very, very close numbers. Yes, in the last two cycles, the polls have underestimated the Republican vote. Yes, things in this election still look very tight. But on balance, I'd much rather have the Trump team's polling than the Harris team's numbers.
So, about Wisconsin.
Four polls have been done in the Badger state that, either in whole or in part, took place in October. Let's have a look:
- Quinnipiac (10/3-10/7): Trump +2
- The Hill/Emerson (10/5-10/8): Tie
- Wall Street Journal (9/28-10/8): Tie
- InsiderAdvantage (10/8-10/9): Tie
That's not great news for either ticket, but the trendline - see the page linked above - is narrowing, and it's important to note that Harris had a pretty constant 1-2 point lead through the summer.
Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes are still a must-win for both tickets. Barring a couple of rather unlikely scenarios, whoever wins Pennsylvania will almost certainly win the election, and at present, it's within the margin of error, although the trend is moving towards Trump/Vance. If we apply the polls for the seven battleground states at face value, it looks like a 302-236 win for Trump. If we toss in Wisconsin, the tally becomes 312-226 - that's mandate territory. And here's what's changed in the last month or so: If we, again, apply the polls for the battleground states as they stand, Trump can lose Pennsylvania and still win, 283-255. But the Trump campaign losing Pennsylvania makes Michigan look doubtful, and if Trump/Vance lose both, that's a narrow Harris/Walz win, 270-268.
I won't go into national surveys because they don't really matter. That's not how we elect presidents.
This election will still be decided by a few states. Wisconsin is the only one where Harris/Walz still hold any lead at all - but all of them are very, very close. On election night, watch Pennsylvania and Michigan. They will tell the tale. And as far as the polling averages go, yes, it's tight, but I'd rather be in Trump's shoes than Harris'.