I'm trying really hard not to count my chickens before they hatch, but with so many eggs, it's hard not to say I won't wind up with a lot of chickens regardless of how many make it.
Kamala Harris is not doing well. Try as they might, every day brings a new embarrassment, usually born from an issue the Biden-Harris administration caused. On Monday, news hit the X feeds that Haitian migrants were eating ducks, geese, and house pets in Springfield, Ohio. With immigration being such a massive issue with the Biden-Harris administration, this naturally became another argument to vote for Trump. Memes rained down from the sky like manna from Heaven, doing more damage to the Harris campaign than a thousand stuffy political speeches.
Protect our ducks and kittens in Ohio! pic.twitter.com/YnTZStPnsg
— House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) September 9, 2024
Save the geese. Vote Trump. pic.twitter.com/qzPBm5SWmW
— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) September 9, 2024
But on top of that was the issue that came with the Harris campaign's strategy to avoid the media. It's likely that the media would be able to do what it does, and simply fabricate a candidate that was confident, competent, and charismatic. It was all they could do, since appearing in front of a camera only seemed to make people dislike her.
Maybe this would have worked in a time before the internet, but information gets around too fast now. Narratives are collapsed too fast. Clips and facts they don't want you to see are freely distributed to screens across the nation. You can't stop the signal, Mal.
It didn't help that Harris didn't have any official policies until literally Monday, 50 days after she became the presumptive nominee. It should have been an exciting moment, but the story is J.D. Vance tearing it apart on X.
(JD Vance Lights a Match to the Tinder That Is Kamala Harris' 'Policies')
Normally, a candidate could look forward to a great debate performance to save them, but this is Kamala Harris. The idea of putting Harris in front of cameras without a solid script to follow gives Democrats the shivers. They can put on a brave face all day, but it's pretty obvious that they're dreading this. If they fear her being in front of friendly press, how much more do they fear putting her in front of Trump, who already has a debate strategy laid out.
While I'm not taking any poll as gospel, I think it's interesting that polls that even have Harris leading show her stalling out as Trump climbs. The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows her even with Trump, with Trump +1 in the NYT poll.
General Election Poll - National
— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 9, 2024
🟥 Trump 50%
🟦 Harris 50%
Harvard-Harris - 2,350 RV 9/4-9/5
Harris is now crashing. NYT Trump +1 & Harvard-Harris EVEN.
There is now a lot of pressure in Harris for tomorrow's debate.
An EVEN popular vote is a Trump blowout in the EC.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver's forecast has Harris at 36 percent likely to win, while Trump is at 63.8 percent. I couldn't help but notice the same look on Harris's popularity in the 2020 primary polls between her and Biden.
Right now, @KamalaHarris is having her Nam flashback moment. pic.twitter.com/tp2R5o5ivN
— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) September 8, 2024
As I write this, Polymarket has Trump at a 52 percent likelihood to win, while Harris is at 46 percent.
Again, none of this means Harris is too far behind to catch up. Dark miracles have happened. The red wave we expected in 2022 never came. Sometimes things go wrong unexpectedly. Sometimes a blue line mysteriously hikes up over a red one.
I'm just not seeing a path to victory for Harris here unless it involves some serious cheating or goat sacrifices.
Don't get cocky. If the Democrats are going to cheat, we need to make it so obvious that they cheated that certification is impossible. However, I feel like Harris is going to sink so far that it's going to be hard to even try to cheat. Especially after the debates.
It's not over till it's over... but man does it look increasingly like it's over.