As the Republican convention kicks off this week in Milwaukee, the program will sound very different, not only from its originally planned content, but from every political convention that has yet preceded it. Democrats had hoped just a month or two ago that former President Trump would trundle onto the convention stage hobbled by legal convictions and poor favorability, or perhaps even join it remotely from prison after one or more humiliating sentencings. Instead, the stage will now feature an entirely different candidate: Trump risen from the ashes, a fist-pumping, rough-riding Teddy Roosevelt with a bandaged ear and a fresh orange glow.
The former President will rightfully savor his moment of survival before being smothered with his new vice-presidential pick by an avalanche of colored balloons and well-wishes. Before that happens, however, in another notable reversal of the program prior to the shooting, it was announced this weekend that the stage will now also be welcoming Trump’s most recent challenger for the nomination, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
While true that the days of delegate swaps and coalition forging over cigars and handshakes are long since over, there are still deals to be made on a convention floor. In the modern era, these deals are more about exchanging patronage for promotion and forgiveness for support, helping unite attendees and viewers behind a single candidate that will bear its message in the fall. For the winner of the primary contests, it’s an opportunity to shore up support from potential voters disgruntled that their candidate did not win. For the second-place finisher, it’s an opportunity to be welcomed back into the fold of the party’s majority, restore standing for future campaigns, and bask briefly in the light that could someday be theirs.
If there was ever a moment to soar above intra-party conflicts, this week is it. The sharpness of the criticism between these two candidates during the months of Haley’s campaign is a good reason on its own to use the convention floor as a time for reunification. But this is all the more true after the horrific scene this past weekend, at a time when everyone in our country, at some core part of their being whether they realize it or not, is craving an element of amity and a soft voice or two.
It now appears that both Trump and Haley have chosen to seize this moment as an opportunity for reconciliation. In addition to dusting off her own bitterness and endorsing Trump, Haley announced last week that she was also releasing her small but symbolic pool of pledged delegates to support him. It was a gracious gesture by someone who has come to a decision that the importance of the party’s agenda supersedes her own personal misgivings about the man at the top of the ticket. This is a choice that many moderate Republicans are still grappling with.
Haley may help them with that choice. Her support from party moderates and favorability with independents continues to be substantial. Before she dropped out of the race in March, she won several small primaries in D.C. and Vermont but also garnered significant support in major contests including New Hampshire and Virginia as a stark alternative to Trump. Perhaps even more importantly, she continued to garner substantial support even after announcing an end to her campaign, winning, for example, a remarkable 17 percent of a protest vote in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Arizona and 21 percent in Indiana.
These performances are critical evidence of an enduring reluctance by certain corners of the Republican voter bloc and the increasingly vocal “double haters” — those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump — to cast a ballot for the Republican nominee.
Compared to the 2016 election results, Trump and the Republicans have lost sizable ground with independents, suburban women, and college-educated voters in subsequent elections as well as polling for the current cycle, even while they have shown promising signs of gaining ground with other demographics. The same factions where Trump has lost ground have been Haley’s core strengths. At least one poll during the primary campaign showed her 17 percentage points over President Biden at a time when Trump was running even, underlining the weight she carries with the middle of the political spectrum.
After Biden’s disastrous debate performance at the end of June and in the glow of Trump’s triumphant moment of defiance and survival this past weekend, these voters are now more up for grabs than they have ever been. Polls now show an increasing reluctance by independents to support Biden in November, even among those who voted for Biden in 2020, given growing concerns about his ability to fulfill the duties of office. Critically, however, it is noted that these same voters have largely not yet moved into the Trump column. A recent Cook Political Report survey showed a recent 4 percentage point drop in independents favoring Biden following the debate, with no increase for Trump.
Then there’s the opportunity specific to the abortion issue, which remains of critical importance to many voters. Last week, a simplified Republican platform was released, with one of its key updates being a softer position on abortion, dropping any objective for national limits in favor of states’ decisions. Haley is the perfect speaker to deliver this message given its moderation and compatibility with her own stump speech on the topic.
As Nikki Haley herself said upon exiting the race: “At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people.”
Indeed, it still does. In the wake of a tumultuous month for Democrats, there may be a premature sense among Trump’s team that President Biden’s current troubles are so severe that the race is already won. But as weak as President Biden may be in July, the media narrative will inevitably shift back to Trump and his weaknesses over the next few months. Trump will undoubtedly receive an additional bump in the polling in the weeks to come as he rides a wave of both sympathy and admiration for his show of resilience under fire. But it’s unclear how long that will last.
Regardless of whether the Democrat nominee is ultimately Biden or someone else, polls are likely to tighten as the focus is turned back on Trump’s legal troubles and upcoming sentencing for his controversial felony convictions.
Becoming president whether for the first or second time is about appearing big in the face of adversity and against the canvas of America’s most important challenges. Trump is currently having a rare moment of appearing to be putting himself above an ugly fray. He now needs to pivot that moment into a message of unity and inclusiveness that will draw that last handful of swing voters to his cause. Including the voice of his former rival is a step in the right direction. Let us hope that spirit permeates the rest of the convention and the campaign.