If you’re a sports fan and you’ve ever tried to beat the Vegas bookies with your bets against the spread, you’ll know that it’s a pretty tough game indeed. You should consider yourself lucky if you break even or even walk away with some of your wallet’s contents intact. Why? Because these people are experts who throw money, computer programming, and countless hours of advanced statistical analysis into determining who is likely to win a game and by exactly how much.
Those multi-billion dollar Las Vegas complexes didn't build themselves.
So when oddsmakers opine on the chances of a certain outcome, you'd be wise to listen—but if you’re President Joe Biden, the news is not good, not good at all. Following his epic debate meltdown Thursday night, Old Joe has seen his chances for remaining in the Oval Office after January 2025 plummet into a sinkhole:
On Thursday, before the debate, Bet365 gave Biden a 13/8 (38.1 percent) chance of winning November's election but this slumped to 10/3 (23.1 percent) as of 3 a.m. ET on Friday, according to betting website Oddschecker.
Over the same period, Biden's odds of victory slumped from 13/8 (38.1 percent) to 3/1 (25 percent) with Sky Bet, 15/8 (34.8 percent) to 3/1 (25 percent) with William Hill and 13/8 (38.1 percent) to 7/2 (22.2 percent) with Betfair.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek: "Biden's disastrous head-to-head with Trump has seen punters rapidly lose faith that the incumbent president has another five years in him." [Emphasis mine.]
Trump is now sitting pretty, according to bettors:
The two men were neck-and-neck back in April; now, despite Trump's varying legal and financial headaches, he has the punters' firm backing to be the next U.S. president.
As you might be able to tell by the above language, those quotes are from English betting sites, and “punter” is a British term for speculator. But it’s not just Brits who are picking up on the trend:
While Donald Trump is the obvious beneficiary of Biden’s freefall, another name is also in the mix: California-killing Gov. Gavin Newsom:
If you’re a liberal, your answer is predictable: “These are just betting odds, how horrifyingly juvenile; they mean nothing! Joe is the most compassionate president ever who has passed all this wonderful legislation that I’m totally sure has done something to improve the country—I’m not sure exactly WHAT, but HE CARES—so I will ignore this and treat it for what it is: another vast right-wing conspiracy!"
While it may be an obvious argument, it is not a very effective one, and I’ll tell you why: go to Las Vegas. Look at the multi-billion dollar developments, the gargantuan, glitzy hotspots, the teeming blackjack tables. Watch as millions upon millions of dollars change hands every single night, almost always in favor of the casinos. These people are not dumb. They are not playing.
If Joe Biden were a competent poker player, and he was made aware of the odds of winning with the cards in his hand, he might realize that the smart move here is to fold. Bluffing got him to where he is today, but it would appear that his bluff has been called—and he’s holding a pair of twos.