France's Exceptionally High-stakes Election Has Begun. The Far Right Leads Preelection Polls
Voters across mainland
France have been casting ballots Sunday in the first round of an
exceptional parliamentary election that could put France’s government in
the hands of nationalist, conservative parties for the first time since
the Nazi era.
The outcome of the
two-round election, which will wrap up July 7, could impact European
financial markets, Western support for Ukraine, and how France’s nuclear
arsenal and global military force are managed.
Many French voters are frustrated about inflation and economic concerns,
as well as President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership, which they see as
arrogant and out-of-touch with their lives. Marine Le Pen’s
anti-immigration National Rally party has tapped and fueled that
discontent, notably via online platforms like TikTok, and dominated all
preelection opinion polls.
A new coalition on the
left, the New Popular Front, is also posing a challenge to the
pro-business Macron and his centrist alliance Together for the Republic.
There are 49.5 million
registered voters who will choose 577 members of the National Assembly,
France's influential lower house of parliament, during the two-round
voting.
Marine Le Pen, leader of
France’s resurgent National Rally, cast her ballot in her party's
stronghold in northern France on Sunday.
Turnout at midday at the
first round stood at 25.9 % according to interior ministry figures,
which is higher from the 2022 legislative elections at this time of the
day. It was 18.43% at midday two years ago.
After a blitz campaign
marred by rising hate speech, voting began early in France’s overseas
territories, and polling stations opened in mainland France at 8 a.m.
(0600 GMT) Sunday. The first polling projections are expected at 8 p.m.
(1800 GMT), when the final polling stations close, and early official
results are expected later Sunday night.
The voting is taking
place during the traditional first week of summer vacation in the
country, and absentee ballot requests were at least five times higher
than in the 2022 elections, according to figures from the interior
ministry.
Voters who turned out in
person at a Paris polling station on Sunday had issues from immigration
to inflation and the rising cost of living on their minds as the
country has grown more divided between the far right and far left blocs
with a deeply unpopular and weakened president in the political center.
“People don't like what
has been happening,” said Cynthia Justine, a 44-year-old voter in Paris.
“People feel they've lost a lot in recent years. People are angry. I am
angry.”
She added that with “the
rising hate speech,” it was necessary for people to express their
frustrations with those holding and seeking power and cast their
ballots.
“It is important for me
because I am a woman and we haven't always had the right to vote,"
Justin said. “Because I am a Black woman, it's even more important. A
lot is at stake on this day.”
Pierre Leclaer, a
78-year-old retiree, said he cast his ballot for the simple reason of
“trying to avoid the worst," which for him is "a government that is from
the far right, populist, not liberal and not very Republican.”
Macron called the early
election after his party was trounced in the European Parliament
election earlier in June by the National Rally, which has historic ties
to racism and antisemitism and is hostile toward France’s Muslim
community. It was an audacious gamble that French voters who were
complacent about the European Union election would be jolted into
turning out for moderate forces in a national election to keep the far
right out of power.
Instead, preelection
polls suggest that the National Rally is gaining support and has a
chance at winning a parliamentary majority. In that scenario, Macron
would be expected to name 28-year-old National Rally President Jordan
Bardella as prime minister in an awkward power-sharing system known as
“cohabitation.”
In the restive French
Pacific territory of New Caledonia, polls already closed at 5 p.m. local
time due to an 8 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that authorities on the
archipelago have extended until July 8.
Nine people died during a
two-week-long unrest in New Caledonia, where the Indigenous Kanak
people have long sought to break free from France, which first took the
Pacific territory in 1853. Violence flared on May 13 in response to
attempts by Macron’s government to amend the French Constitution and
change voting lists in New Caledonia, which Kanaks feared would further
marginalize them.
Voters in France’s other
overseas territories from Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy,
Saint-Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, French Polynesia and those
voting in offices opened by embassies and consular posts across the
Americas cast their ballots on Saturday.
While Macron has said he
won’t step down before his presidential term expires in 2027,
cohabitation would weaken him at home and on the world stage.
The results of the first
round will give a picture of overall voter sentiment, but not
necessarily of the overall makeup of the next National Assembly.
Predictions are extremely difficult because of the complicated voting
system, and because parties will work between the two rounds to make
alliances in some constituencies or pull out of others.
In the past such
tactical maneuvers helped keep far-right candidates from power. But now
support for Le Pen's party has spread deep and wide.
Bardella, who has no
governing experience, says he would use the powers of prime minister to
stop Macron from continuing to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine for
the war with Russia. His party has historical ties to Russia.
The party has also
questioned the right to citizenship for people born in France, and wants
to curtail the rights of French citizens with dual nationality. Critics
say this undermines fundamental human rights and is a threat to
France's democratic ideals.
Meanwhile, huge public
spending promises by the National Rally and especially the left-wing
coalition have shaken markets and ignited worries about France's heavy
debt, already criticized by EU watchdogs.