The news this week has brought on a lot of speculation as to what it might actually mean for Joe Biden and the Democratic presidential ticket as a whole. Could Joe Biden still be replaced? Who would be at the top of the ticket? Would they actually skip over Kamala Harris if they swapped Biden out?
First of all, I still find it highly unlikely that Joe Biden won't be on the ticket, barring (God forbid) natural causes. The stubborn old man has no reason to step aside, especially when he thinks he's doing such a great job. He doesn't see any problems, unlike Republicans and even some within his own party.
Plus, why step aside when he and his team are so convinced they are actually winning, polls be damned?
Biden Genuinely Believes He's Beating Trump Right Now (Polls Be Damned)
But, even if he were to do so, the question remains: Who would replace him?
I've heard names like Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama. Privately, there is actually very little love for the Obamas. Many in Biden's orbit blame Obama for convincing Biden not to run in 2016 and paving the way for Hillary Clinton, believing that is why Trump won. Other Democrats look at the absolute devastation that happened to the party's ranks during the Obama years, noting that Barack Obama was far more focused on himself than his party, and the Democratic Party as a whole suffered for it.
Democrats are also concerned that Newsom is too far left to be the party's figurehead, and that a country that still relies on moderates to determine political outcomes would never elect him.
But, even more than all that, Biden himself has made it impossible for the Democrats to get rid of Harris were Biden to no longer run.
There is currently a lot of polling data out there showing Biden losing black voters. They aren't switching to the GOP in large numbers (though some are), but it seems incredibly likely that many of them could stay home. Among black voters, black female voters are one of the most reliably Democrat voting groups. If the party were to skip over the first black female vice president to look for another candidate for president, that would have disastrous consequences.
There is also the fact that Biden has tied himself so closely to Harris in rhetoric. It's not the "Biden Administration," it's the "Biden-Harris Administration." They've branded themselves that way, and to dump Harris right before she could assume the role of first black female presidential nominee would effectively end her political career and destroy Biden's reputation.
And then there's the convention itself. It would be utter chaos for the Democrats if Biden were to step aside and the party skip over Kamala Harris. Biden would have to release all of his delegates and then there would be mini-campaigns jockeying for those delegates at the last minute. It would throw the entire production into mass hysteria. Democrats know they can't afford that.
I know a lot of people think the fix is in, and I've talked to a lot who are sure that someone like Michelle Obama has been picked. After all, why hold the party convention in Chicago if not to coronate the former first lady? But there is not enough time left, and Biden would have needed to step down long before now to make any of that feasible.
Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely? I don't think so.
