Corporate media is calling it a “tight race.” It probably is, as have been most recent presidential elections, but what do the polls say?
Remember this caveat about polls: They are a snapshot in time, reflecting the views of a tiny fraction of a percent of the population, registered or likely voters, and are fluid depending on the news and issues of the day. Current events rapidly change, as do voter sentients, and voter preferences may shift over the next five months.
That being said, recent polls are popping for former President Donald Trump.
For Trump supporters, Rasmussen Reports's May 3 survey results are encouraging, with this headline, “Trump now +10 over Biden.”
Rasmussen surveys likely U.S. voters, a more reliable sampling compared to simply registered voters, or even residents, meaning whoever answers the pollster’s phone call. In the 2020 presidential election, only two thirds of eligible voters submitted ballots, so likely voters are a more meaningful sample compared to registered voters.
In a three-way contest between Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, 46% of likely voters would choose Trump, 36% Biden, and 9% Kennedy.
In any election, turnout is important, which hinges on voter enthusiasm. Trump has an advantage here too with 59% of his voters saying they are very excited about the upcoming election compared to only 50% of Biden’s voters.
Similarly, 60% of Republicans and only 45% of Democrats are excited about this year’s presidential election. Enthusiasm drives turnout.
Unlike in virtually all past presidential elections, both candidates have a record to run on as presidents. How are they doing at similar points in their respective presidencies? There is a simple way to ask this question.
Are you better off today compared to four years ago? The answer for most Americans is apparent, and Trump needs to make this case loudly and frequently. As do Congressional Republicans, who are mostly afraid of their own shadows.
Lest you think Rasmussen is an outlier, CNN confirms. In their recent pollamong registered voters, Trump’s support sits at 49% compared to Biden at 43%.
Furthermore, 55% of Americans now see Trump’s presidency as a success, while only 39% see Biden’s term as a success in the CNN poll.
What issues are important to voters?
According to CNN, 65% of voters “call the economy extremely important to their vote for president.” This compares to only 40% in 2020 and 46% in 2016 who felt that way.
“It’s the economy, stupid,” as James Carville said during Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign.
For those voters saying the economy is “deeply important,” Trump has a huge 62% to 30% lead over Biden.
What about likeability? Per the CNN poll, impressions of both current candidates are mostly negative. Some 58% of voters view Biden unfavorably compared to 55% for Trump.
For voters who like neither candidate, in choosing between the two: “They break for Trump, 43% to 31%.”
Rasmussen Reports has another way of comparing favorability between the two candidates, which is their Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Comparing the exact same point in their respective presidencies, on May 17, 2020, Trump’s total approval was 49% compared to Biden on May 9, 2024, at only 43%.
Let’s look at one more poll to make sure CNN and Rasmussen Reports aren’t one-offs.
Gallup found that Biden’s 13th quarter approval average was the lowest in history, at only 39%, going back as far as President Eisenhower.
By comparison, Trump, at the same point in his presidency, had 47% approval, 8 points higher than Biden.
Last week, the New York Times painfully acknowledged the results of one of their sponsored polls with this headline: “Trump leads in 5 key states, as young and nonwhite voters express discontent with Biden.”
Going further, they noted:
The findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life. A majority of voters still desire the return to normalcy promised by Mr. Biden in the last campaign, but voters in battleground states remain particularly anxious, unsettled and itching for change. Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Biden barely won (if he actually did win) in 2020, with much higher support from Black and young voters. This recent poll must be giving the New York Times and Democrats serious dyspepsia.
Are these numbers surprising? Trump held a rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, last weekend. This city of 5,157 people hosted 100,000 Trump supporters, the largest crowd ever for a political event or concert in the Garden State.
It was bigger than the Rolling Stones, Grateful Dead, Bruce Springsteen, Bon Jovi, or Pope John Paul II.
The last Republican to win this blue state was George H.W. Bush in 1988, almost 40 years ago. I suspect the lines at the porta-potties would be larger than the entire audience at a Biden rally, assuming he would even hold one.
That’s called the enthusiasm gap. A Monmouth University poll from late April found 63% of Republicans very or somewhat enthusiastic about the upcoming presidential election, compared to only 36% of Democrats and 27% of independents.
Remember that a poll is simply a snapshot in time, and much could change. The economy is imploding. We are fighting proxy world wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, perhaps soon in Taiwan. The border remains wide open with who knows how many terrorists already in America, waiting to unleash death and destruction. The culture war is ablaze, as noted recently on college campuses.
Lastly, let’s hear what far-left CNN mouthpiece Fareed Zakaria had to sayrecently:
Polls are not always accurate. But in general, they have tended to underestimate Donald Trump’s support, not overestimate it. I doubt there are many shy Biden voters in the country.
Tom Bevan, founder of Real Clear Politics, agrees. “The final NYT polls in 2020 overestimated Biden's support in every swing state by an average of nearly 5%.” In other words, Trump may have even greater support than the above polls reflect.
At least today there is cause for optimism based on the above-mentioned polls. But don’t be overconfident or take your foot off the electoral gas pedal. There is much at stake in this election and America may not be able to recover from four more years of Biden and his merry band of tyrants and thugs.