Friday, May 31, 2024

In 2024, the Candidates May Be the Same, but American Voters Are Very Different


The rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is on. The thought of this makes many American voters roll their eyes and groan; they want some fresh faces. And while there is a lot of polling data that shows Trump looking more and more attractive to traditional Democrat voting blocs like blacks, Hispanics, and young people, there is also another significant factor. The voters who elected Joe Biden in 2020 are a very different group than the one who will elect the president in 2024. If Republicans want to be victorious in November, it is something they might want to pay attention to. 


The voters who will go to the polls in the fall have changed more since 2020 than in the past two election cycles in 41 states. This includes those considered to be key swing states. A recent Bloomberg News analysis of government and private data looked at several changes that have occurred in the American electorate in the past four years. There are roughly 31 million new eligible voters since 2020. That includes those who have moved from one state to another, those who have turned 18, and those who have become naturalized citizens. It is almost one million more potential voters than were added between 2016 and 2020. 

Some states have had voter turnover of up to 15 percent, with people moving from state to state being the largest component. Because Americans are getting older in general, deaths of voters in general, but also COVID deaths, played a part in the change in the electorate. New naturalized citizens are the smallest factor but the fastest growing. New voters could certainly change the already razor-thin balance in many states like Nevada and Arizona when compared to the 2020 margin of victory.

It is a few of those key swing states where the turnover in the electorate can be seen the best. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were among the states that had the fewest changes nationwide in their respective electorates. But in those states, at least 10 percent of the voting-age population has turned over since 2020. That is around 2.4 million new voters. Some of the other factors coming into play with voter turnover include the fact that those who move from one state to another tend to be younger and more diverse than the general population. 


One thing that Democrats will vehemently deny but that is becoming more and more obvious — and will also play a part in voter turnover — is that they have become the party of the rich, the elite. Joe Biden heads to Hollywood for fundraisers, while Donald Trump has rallies that thousands of average Americans attend. Another factor is the growth of certain ethnic groups. The birth rate for white women lags behind that of black and Hispanic women. 

But a lot can change before election day, which is still five months away. Voter registration and turnout tend to be lower among newly naturalized citizens and younger voters. Those who register to vote early tend to be older, wealthier, and white. A Democrat-affiliated voter file firm called Catalist claims that most states have lost between eight and 20 percent of their 2020 registered voters as of April 2024. 

Combine all of this with the fact that for the majority of voters, whoever they are, the economy and immigration are the top issues they care about. Then there are third-party candidates, of which the biggest threat to Joe Biden might be Robert F. Kennedy Jr., although he will manage to muscle some votes away from Trump.  

Anyone who is a political watcher knows that the five months between now and election day are an eternity, and a lot of things will change. Voter turnover is something that neither campaign is talking about. Republicans need to get that conversation rolling.




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