I have to admit, one of the few people I can stomach at CNN is polling guy Harry Enten because he seems to be not shy about presenting the news when it isn't favorable to Democrats. Right now there's a lot of bad news when it comes to Joe Biden in the polls and Enten wasn't holding back about how bad that news was.
Earlier in the week he went into the numbers in the swing states and why if these numbers held, it's "ballgame over" for Joe Biden.
All right, let's take a look here. This is the Biden versus Trump match up. Remember, Biden barely won Arizona back in 2021 by well less than a percentage. He won Nevada by a little bit more than two percentage points. Look now where we are in the 2024 polling. Joe Biden's numbers, to quote Tony Blair, are weak, weak, weak. Donald Trump up in the polling average in Arizona by five, up in Nevada by five percentage points.
He said if the numbers held, former President Donald Trump would be the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the "Silver State" (Nevada) since George W. Bush in 2004.
What's changed? Hispanic voters.
Back in 2020, Joe Biden carried Hispanic voters in Arizona by 24 points. He carried them in Nevada by 26 points. Look now, Joe Biden is still leads, but these margins have shrunk significantly, been cut by more than half in Arizona, 11 points, being cut by a third of where the lead was back in 2020, it's just an eight-point advantage for Joe Biden.
He said that if Trump wins Arizona and Nevada, he can't find a "map" that works for Biden.
So it's simple math at this point. Biden is behind in Arizona. He's behind in Nevada. He's behind in Georgia. He's behind in Michigan. And if that map holds, ballgame over. Most likely Donald Trump wins.
Cue the seething from Joe Biden, he's not going to like that.
It got worse as Enten expanded on the Hispanic question later in the week. He said Biden was shaping up for the worst performance by a Democratic presidential candidate with Hispanics “since we started polling the gosh darn thing.” Oh, and check out Anderson Cooper's face, it's priceless as he does not appear happy with what Enten has to say.
Enten said Hispanic voters are very concerned about illegal immigration and they trust Trump more than Biden on the issue, by a "tremendous margin" -- 49 to 24 percent. He said that while Biden won Hispanics in 2020 by over 20 percent, he was barely holding on now by two points.
“It would be the smallest margin for any Democratic candidate among Hispanic voters, basically throughout history since we started pulling the gosh darn thing,” Enten declared. “So the fact is at this point, there’s no backlash. And at this point, I don’t see one coming.”
When even CNN is throwing Biden under the bus with some reality, you know he's in trouble.
We have several months left to go but I don't think Jill talking about breakfast tacos or Biden showing up at Mexican restaurants telling tall tales, then wandering off isn't going to change this scenario.