Thursday, January 25, 2024

Turkey Signed Off on Sweden's NATO Membership, Hungary's Orban Hasn't Yet


The Turkish parliament's vote on Tuesday put Sweden within one vote of NATO membership. The 287 to 55 vote leaves Hungary as the only holdout preventing Sweden from leaving its historical status as a neutral power to join NATO. That move was made possible by the deft diplomacy of Vladimir Putin, whose policy of invading his neighbors convinced Sweden that safety in numbers was a better strategy than neutrality.

Sweden and Finland had initially pledged to join NATO "hand-in-hand," but that became impossible when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unleashed his inner rug merchant and bartered Sweden's membership for political concessions from Sweden and the United States.

To let Sweden join, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan put forth a series of conditions including a tougher stance toward groups that Turkey regards as threats to its security, such as Kurdish militants and members of a network it blames for a failed coup in 2016.

Although the Swedish government tried to appease Erdogan by lifting an arms embargo on Turkey and promising to cooperate on fighting terrorism, public demonstrations in Sweden by supporters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and by anti-Muslim activists who burned the Qurancomplicated the situation.

[As an aside, I'm usually not a big fan of the "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter," but I make an exception for PKK operations against Turkey.]

Those issues had been largely cleared up by July 2023; even so, it took another six months of Erdogan whining and whinging to lock down the deal.

Right on cue, Biden asked Congress to approve a deal to sell US fighters to Turkey despite Turkey's threats against Israel, aggressive behavior toward fellow NATO member Greece, and its war against Iraqi Kurds. 


[Also, as an aside, now that we've seen what kind of a barking shambles Russia's Black Sea Fleet is, I'm not sure that Turkey belongs in NATO because it no longer brings anything with it but division.]

One would think the next step, getting Hungary's approval, would be easier. There are reasons why that may not be the case.

Since Putin's War started, it has become obvious that Hungarian President Viktor Orban is something other than a "Make Hungary Great Again" populist. When he won reelection in 2022, I was mostly positive.

I have to admit I think I was wrong on this, and Orban has shown himself more interested in currying favor with Moscow than opposing Putin's adventurism. Despite his early approval of Finland's NATO accession and his Tucker Carlson interview where he pinky-swore that he was not a Kremlin stooge, the more we see of him in action, the more he acts like a deliberately disruptive player in NATO and the EU and his disruptive behavior doesn't benefit Hungary, but it does benefit Putin.

When Finland and Sweden were first offered NATO membership, Orban promised his closest Western European ally, Poland's Mateusz Morawiecki, that he would see that Hungary ratified their membership.

After a meeting with Mr. Orban in November 2022, Poland’s then conservative prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, declared that the Hungarian leader had given a firm commitment to ratify the NATO membership of both Finland and Sweden “as soon as possible.” That, Mr. Morawiecki said, was a “promise.”

This wasn't a case of misspeaking. Orban's foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, pledged, “We will not be the last one to ratify. This is a promise that we will keep for sure.” In the cold light of Turkey's approval, this is nothing less than a lie, told twice, the last time in December 2023, to ostensible allies.

While Orban is encouraging his parliament to vote for ratification, this increasingly looks like a dodge.

1. Orban has not proposed a timeline for a vote.

2. The parliament is not in session until February 15.

3. Orban has said "that his legislators were “not enthusiastic,” blaming Hungary’s repeated delays in accepting Sweden on lawmakers’ right to make their own decisions."

 4. Various Orban allies have offered a lot of reasons for not supporting Sweden's accession.

Hungarian officials have insisted all along that they would not block Sweden, but have offered different, sometimes contradictory reasons for delays. These include claims of scheduling hiccups, a desire to avoid isolating Turkey, complaints about a Swedish video that casts Hungary in a bad light, and quibbles over remarks that Stockholm officials made years ago, while they were in opposition.

The fact that no one knows why Hungary hasn't already approved Sweden's NATO membership is worrisome.

5. Just a few hours after Turkey's vote, Orban came within a hair of ordering the Swedes to report to Budapest. 


The negotiations are done. If Hungary has bilateral issues with Sweden, then it should raise them. The fact that Orban's government has been unable to articulate such reasons for a year is suspicious. The Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström responded, "I see no reason to negotiate at this point." But he said Sweden would keep an open mind about Orban's intent and monitor parliamentary debate in Hungary.

In the end, Orban will deliver the votes. But there is nothing in his behavior so far that indicates he is acting in good faith and a lot to suggest otherwise.



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