It should have sunk in a lot sooner with the public just how truly fraught and uncharted the territory is that we’re lurching toward in 2024.
Not a single set of current circumstances spells calm and normal. It’s the opposite. They’re all destined for discord, misrule, and distrust. And it will be at a level that makes the 2020 presidential election from hell look like a furry convention.
Just look at the most likely scenarios.
Joe Biden and his trusty affirmative action ditz Kamala Harris skate to the nomination. There’s a lot of time between now and November 2024, but every bit of publicly available data at the moment spells certain doom for Democrats. Polls consistently show Biden is unpopular and that voters prefer Donald Trump on all major issues, save abortion (which, admittedly, is a big one that has cost Republicans elections before). A normal person looks at that set of circumstances and says, “Well, that makes sense. Trump will probably win.” But Democrats aren’t normal people at any given moment, no less in an election year they are likely to lose to Donald Trump. Under those circumstances, they’re desperate to the point of maniacal, and they won’t go down quietly or with anything resembling honor.
Biden experiences a health crisis that renders him incapable of campaigning, but he nevertheless refuses to bow out. Maybe it’s an ugly fall. Maybe it’s something worse. But whatever it might be, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Biden’s physical or mental health comes under jeopardy (as it has essentially always been). A normal person looks at that set of circumstances and says, “He should take care of himself and back out while he can.” But Democrats won’t do that. Recall what they did last year when one of their nominees for U.S. Senate suffered a near-fatal stroke. They didn’t insist he do what’s best for his family and his health. No, they fastened him to a “Speak & Spell” and doubled up on their ballot-harvesting efforts. Should something similar happen to Biden, they will do the same, even as the stakes are far higher. Get familiar with the phrase “President Kamala Harris.”
Biden determines on his own or by coercion to step aside. This scenario is only possible if Kamala also agrees not to pursue the nomination. No serious Democrat believes she’s capable of doing the job of being president, nor do any one of them believe she should try. But they won’t abandon the first black lady woman of color vice president if she doesn’t say it’s okay first. But the timing of such a potential game change is a predicament on its own. When is a good time for an incumbent president, who has said he is running for a second term, to recuse himself?
The only possibility is at the Democrat convention, when Biden, with virtually all of the party delegates, endorses someone else agreed upon by party leaders. A normal person looks at that set of circumstances and says, “This is a sh-t show, and I can’t believe we’ve ended up here.” Democrats don’t waste time on such thoughts. With great assistance from their friends in the news media, they will insist this is normal, that it’s something the party had to do — for the sake of democracy! — and that to the extent there is anything amiss, it’s because Donald Trump has ruined all of America’s democratic traditions, safeguards, and nooooorms.
The last presidential election was anything but normal. The next one is destined to be even more precarious.