On Thursday, The Federalist ran a piece by scribe Eddie Scarry, which presented an interesting possibility many of us may not have given enough thought to. He describes a scenario presented by Independent 2024 presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
In an interview with Patrick Bet-David this week, Robert Kennedy Jr. said something about the eventual Democrat presidential nominee I hadn’t considered. “If he were going to drop out,” Kennedy said, referring to Biden, “the time to drop out would be during the convention because then he would control the delegates, because they’re all Biden delegates, and he would then be able to pick his successor.”
The idea being that Biden, with the full Democrat apparatus behind him, would lock up the nomination by formally “running” but then direct all of his secured delegates to fall behind someone else, either because he knows he can’t endure a general election campaign, or because he’s been told he better not try.
You can watch the entire RFK Jr. interview below:
Of the two possibilities Mr. Kennedy mentions, namely, that President Biden either knows he can't endure a general election campaign, or that he's been told he better not try, I'm more inclined to believe the latter. After all, in 2020, he wasn't called upon to endure a general election campaign, instead running the bulk of his effort from his Delaware basement; the other possibility seems more likely since it's pretty apparent he no longer has the wit or self-awareness to try to run again. His mental decline becomes more apparent by the day, he may well be facing impeachment for influence-peddling, his approval ratings are in the toilet, and it's pretty apparent that one way or another, he's on the way out.
But the convention scenario, now that does open up an interesting can of worms; this would allow the Democrats to sidestep the incompetent VP Harris and anoint someone right out of left (ha) field -- say, the impeccably-coiffed California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Scarry goes on to describe the... let's call them challenges facing the Democrats.
Democrats are, of course, in a problem of their own making. They nominated a cadaver who was twice rejected for the spot in the past. But it turned out that with a little pandemic hyping, race riot stoking, and mail-in ballot rigging, they were able to pull things off and foist him into the White House, defeating (temporarily) Donald Trump. Unfortunately, the country collapsed into ruin under Biden, and the next election was fast approaching. They knew he shouldn’t run again, but his natural successor was an inept and undeniably unqualified Kamala Harris, Biden’s black woman of color female vice president.
2020 was something of a perfect storm, what with all of the issues and electoral shenanigans described above. But can the Democrats, even given their choice of candidates for when Joe Biden inevitably shuffles off to Delaware, pull it off again?
Here are a couple of problems they may face. I mentioned Gavin Newsom (as he sure seems to be running a shadow campaign), but he's arguably not the best choice; under his direction, California has sunk into a quagmire, and any GOP candidate with enough brains to pound sand will hang that around his neck like an albatross. Who do the Dems have, even in the event of a wide-open, deal-making convention? Joe Manchin? Would they try to talk Kristen Sinema into coming back to the Party? Neither of those options seems likely.
Whether the Dems stick with befuddled old Joe Biden, or do a lateral arabesque to hand the candidacy over to Gov. Newsom, VP Harris, or someone else, there is another problem. It's difficult to see them coming up with a candidate who can capture urban progressives, and still appeal to enough independents and blue-collar Democrats to defeat Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, or whomever else the GOP's standard-bearer might be.
The Democratic National Convention next year is scheduled for August 19 to 22, 2024. That's when we'll all find out.