We're in the final two months of 2023 and, God help us, we are on 2024's doorstep. Right now, we're looking at a likely 2020 rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with each man somehow walking in with even more negatives than they had in that election.
Events could change things on the Republican side. Trump could wind up in jail. Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis could see a massive surge - or drop out - and the field could consolidate further. There are a ton of ways this could shake out.
But the Democratic side is both simpler, yet trickier. Biden is, for all intents and purposes, the nominee. He is the incumbent. No one challenging him has the numbers, in money or support, to thwart his re-nomination. Assuming an Act of God does not interfere, he's at the top of the ballot in next year's election, and there's no reason to believe the whispers that he may just replace Kamala Harris.
And, if CNN's John King is correct in his recent analysis, dropping Harris might do even more damage to Biden in one of the Democrats' most important demographics: Black voters.
The mood a year from now will affect the president’s reelection odds more than the present mood. But would the president have a Black turnout problem if the election were today?
“Yes, he would,” Johnson told us. “He would have a big problem.”
A couple of hours with the BLOC canvassers backed up that assertion, as did interviews in both Milwaukee’s inner city and along its suburban edge.
That is a killer quote right there. But it only gets worse for Biden. The mentality of many of the black voters CNN spoke to in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, when it comes to politicians, and Biden in particular, is a gigantic red flag for the president.
“All these candidates come by and sell us these promises,” she said in an interview. “You know, say, you got to vote for me to save democracy. And then we don’t always see them again. And so, folks get more and more turned off from the political process.”
Missing from the new Biden ads is an issue raised often in the overwhelmingly Black neighborhoods on Milwaukee’s northern edge.
“People are wondering: What is he doing in terms of police accountability and criminal justice reform?” Lang said. “That is a big issue in our community.”
Also, the DNC does not seem to be doing its job.
Lang, however, told CNN on Wednesday that she “hadn’t heard much” from any Biden or DNC field organizers but that a GOP organization recently had canvassers going door to door in Black neighborhoods.
Issues aside, Lang said it is critical the 2024 campaign gets back to basics.
“People always want to see people actually paying attention,” she said. “And sometimes that means being able to physically be here and engage. … With the pandemic, he couldn’t hold the big rallies, to have the roundtable in-person discussions. The big thing with our community, like, I think, many others, is that folks want to be heard, and I think that’s step one.”
One assumes that part of this is the Biden team's (and the DNC's) assumption that black voters are gonna be with them and that their usual fear-mongering about racism will work. But there's something else going on that the Biden team is purposefully doing that makes very little sense: He is taking credit for things people are viewing as negatives.
Take, for example, the embrace of "Bidenomics." The president wants Americans to believe that things are just great and you just don't understand how wonderful things are right now. But Americans - including black Americans - see the rising prices in grocery stores every day. They are impacted by fuel prices rapidly fluctuating up and down. They understand that things are more expensive than they were and the president is out there loudly claiming "I did that!"
Couple with how little Biden has actually done for black Americans, why would they be motivated to go out in support of him next year? This is what's hidden in the CNN report, as well as other polling data we've seen. The Democrats are seemingly chasing off minority voters, and they don't seem to understand that.
It's not very likely that the GOP is going to pick up a ton of black voters. Rather, they'll likely just stay home. And that would probably be worse for the Democrats.