A majority of American adults would not be willing to serve in the military were the U.S. to enter into a major war, recent polling has found, while public confidence in the armed forces appears to be waning.
The figures come as all branches of the armed forces have in recent years struggled to meet their recruitment targets, suggesting a growing apathy towards a career of military service. In 2023, the Army and Air Force fell short of their respective goals by around 10,000 recruits, while the Navy was under by 6,000. Since 1987, the number of active-duty personnel has fallen by 39 percent.
Experts say that such shortfalls are worrisome in an increasingly volatile global picture with American leadership unsure when it will next have to bring its full military force to bear.
"We have strike groups, aircraft carriers with a Marine Expeditionary Unit outside Israel now," Justin Henderson, a former transport operator for the U.S. Marines turned military recruiter, told Newsweek. "We're funding two wars, but we're actually boots on the ground, drones above Gaza. So we're already involved in there—and we're not sure what's happening in Taiwan. So this is a very tumultuous time for us, because we don't know what's going to happen."
"How much it matters depends on what kind of people you're talking about and which bit you're not getting," Tom Shugart, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a former Navy attack submarine commander, told Newsweek.
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While infantry recruits could be trained in a matter of weeks, the same was not true for other roles. "Let's say the Navy misses recruiting targets for an extended period and wasn't able to bring on the people that it needs to manage submarines and fly its airplanes...if you end up in a major conflict, it's going to take time to train those people," he said.
Experts say, though, that there is a complex mix of factors contributing to the military's recruitment issues, including adapting its messaging to a younger target generation more engrossed in modern technology and stories of supposed "woke" marketing hurting recruitment, as well as an economic outlook that is proving a challenging environment for those efforts.
"We are actively making efforts to ensure the military remains a viable and productive career choice for a majority of people," Commander Nicole Schwegman, a Department of Defense (DOD) spokesperson, told Newsweek when asked to comment.
A Generational Shift
A poll by the research institute Echelon Insights of 1,029 likely voters, conducted between October 23-26, found that 72 percent of those asked would not be willing to volunteer to serve in the armed forces were America to enter a major conflict, compared with 21 percent who would. The remainder were unsure. The poll was conducted after Hamas led an unprecedented militant attack on Israel on October 7.
Shugart said that the results needed context, however.
"I'm very skeptical of that being accurate because I think the 'why' you're in a war can dramatically change the answer to that question," he said. "I was in the military before 9/11; a lot of society didn't really think about the military very much [before then]."
"If you look at our history, we need to be convinced to get into [a] war," David Eustice, CEO of Military Recruiting Experts, told Newsweek. While Americans needed a reason to support the war in Vietnam, he said, the war in Afghanistan "was immediate and had wide support because something happened to our country."
"If we are convinced that it's something that we need to do Americans generally will do it; less people joining is another matter and it's very complex," he added.
At the start of October, a survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted by J.L. Partners for the Daily Mail found that while an overall majority of Americans said they would die fighting for their country were the U.S. invaded, when broken down by age this sentiment was lowest among those who were 18-29 years old.
Meanwhile, a Gallup poll in June found confidence in the military declined for a sixth consecutive year, to 60 percent.
Eustice, who served 26 years in the Minnesota National Guard, noted that young adults were the military's prime target for new recruits—currently Generation Z, or those born after 1997—and argued that growing up in the internet age had made them used to "immediate gratification."
"There's so many choices out there; we're an a la carte society," he said. "You can have it if you want to have it, you can have it delivered to you. Almost anything is a swipe or click away." In a world where a college degree can be earned from a bedroom, Eustice suggested, the rigor of training could appear unappealing.
Having observed his young children watching videos on the internet of feats of physical activity, Henderson said they were "getting that dopamine hit" of seeing someone accomplish something physically taxing, "but their body didn't go through it. And that's where the disconnect really comes in."
The current generation is also less likely to interact with members of the military, the recruiters said. Eustice noted that while his father, who served in Korea, saw seven of his 10 children serve in the military, that sort of family was very uncommon nowadays.
Henderson, now a senior vice president at RecruitMilitary, said that modern technology had generally reduced face-to-face interactions, which were the standard means for military recruiters to engage young people. "Those opportunities to have those conversations aren't as abundant as they used to be," he said.
An Adverse Economic Environment
As of November 3, the U.S. unemployment rate was down to 3.9 percent, while 150,000 jobs were added to the economy in October alone. Put simply, jobs are being offered and people are taking them.
At the same time, inflation is still a thorn in the side of many consumers, and so many are seeking higher wage packets—which are currently increasing above inflation. By comparison, new enlistees in the armed forces earn little over $20,000 a year.
"There's definitely a strong relationship between [the] unemployment rate and how hard it is to recruit people," Shugart said. "When we're in a recession and unemployment is high, then generally the military has very little trouble recruiting people [to] the numbers that it needs because people are looking for a job. On the other hand, if the economy is really good and the employment market is really tight, and people have lots of options, sometimes the military has more trouble recruiting."
But recruiters also argue that there is a lack of awareness of the full package that the military provides beyond a basic salary—something they say the armed forces need to signpost better to attract that younger generation.
"I don't necessarily think that the job market makes it more difficult—and others might disagree with that," Eustice said. "It's a very big concern for Gen Z, financial stability. However, military service offers knowledge, money, medical coverage, [a] retirement if you stay in, deals on VA home loans when you're done with your service, valuable experience to advance you and your career."
He added: "So, to me, the economic condition should enhance what we're doing, if we message it properly."
Henderson said that while national unemployment was 3.9 percent, veterans' unemployment was 2.9 percent. He said that military service gave "the ability to push yourself to levels that other people don't know that they could push themselves to," which was attractive for employers.
Shugart said, though, that for those the military was targeting—who have to be physically fit—free healthcare was less of a concern, but suggested the key selling point of free college tuition might be undercut by the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan which, while scaled back by the Supreme Court, has seen tens of thousands of dollars knocked off the debts of the poorest loan holders.
Schwegman said the DOD "recognizes that the job market in the public and private sectors is extremely competitive."
"There is a wide range of employment options available to today's youth," she added. "We are constantly working to make sure that service in the military is a part of the conversation and part of the decision space. We believe that serving in the military can be a rewarding and meaningful option for most people."
Caught in a Culture War
Several attempts at military PR this year have sparked social media outrage and accusations that it was going "woke" and, in doing so, deterring those most likely to sign up.
In May, the Navy came under fire for inviting Yeoman 2nd Class Joshua Kelley, a drag queen by the name Harpy Daniels, to become a digital ambassador to "reach a wide range of potential candidates." At the time, a spokesperson said it "stands by any person who is willing to take an oath to put their life on the line in defense of this nation."
Then, in July, the Army received backlash for publishing a profile of Major Rachel Jones, a transgender servicewoman. Now, even ads that hark back to previous slogans and predominantly feature male recruits are being described as "cynical" online.
Eustice said that these sorts of culture war debates were unlikely to deter the military's target generation who were "very open...to all sorts of different lifestyles." But he added: "Some parents will be turned off by those things and maybe not endorse military service as much."
"It's usually a little bit of a challenge to get parents to be for it anyway," he said. "They're supportive of their military but would prefer it to be someone else's child."
Henderson said "that type of media is hurting the military's overall recruiting efforts," but added it was "the civilian media looking from the outside in and making judgments and cherry picking stories to try to divide," while those in the military "are keeping the blinders on" and "finding high-performing individuals [who] want to grow and learn."
Instead, both suggested there was a perception of armed service in the traditional media that had given an unappealing perception of perilous service followed by physically and mentally troubled life as veterans.
"The truth is most veterans are doing very well; they're leaders in their businesses and communities," Eustice said, though others say there is a particular mental health epidemic among veterans, with 24 suicides a day.
"Hollywood doesn't do us any favors," Henderson said. "When civilians close their eyes and think of military, they're thinking of the Navy Seal, door-kicker infantry person. They're only 3 percent of the military's infantry; the other 97 percent is support."
"Everything in the civilian market is there," he added, noting his previous career as a truck driver in the Marine Corps.
Eustice said there were other factors in the recruitment process itself that were having an impact on the number of enlistees who made it through to boot camp, including daily limits on the number that can be processed, as well as increased medical and background checks which prolonged the time between signing up and being accepted, leaving a greater opportunity for drop-outs.
The military is also facing a high level of unfitness to serve among the general population: as of 2020, it assessed that 77 percent of those aged 17-24 were unqualified due to medical reasons, drug use or criminal records.
But there are signs that the military is adapting to Generation Z. Henderson spoke of a gaming truck designed by the Air Force so young adults could simulate flying drones. "The military is now trying to speak their language," he said.
