While the rest of the world appears to be on fire, the Chinese military is clearly in the midst of gearing up for not only war but the deterrence of possible enemies - including the U.S.
A new report from the Pentagon suggests the Chinese military has around 500 nuclear weapons in its stockpile - which is up roughly 100 from last year. What's more, it is the belief of military analysts that the Chinese will have about 1,000 nukes by 2030. These reports come at the same time as other troubling news from the People's Republic of China in recent months.
One notable report comes from the Department of Defense, which revealed about 180 "coercive and risky" encounters with Chinese aircraft over the last year or so.
But the report on the growing nuclear stockpile is extremely worrisome.
A senior DOD official said the latest estimates of China’s nuclear arsenal are “on track to exceed previous projections,” but declined to provide more specific numbers. Last year, the Pentagon estimated China would have 1,000 warheads by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.
“What they’re doing now, if you compare it to what they were doing about a decade ago, it really far exceeds that in terms of scale and complexity,” said the official, who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of the report’s release. “They’re expanding and investing in their land, sea and air-based nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this quite major expansion of their nuclear forces.”
China will probably use its new “fast breeder” reactors and reprocessing facilities to produce plutonium for its growing nuclear weapons program, according to the report, despite Chinese officials publicly maintaining those facilities are intended for “peaceful purposes.”
The news is troubling on multiple fronts. While the Chinese government is not a rogue state that would arbitrarily threaten nuclear action in an international conflict, they are a deeply nationalist group that will almost certainly defend its interests aggressively. A nuclear weapons stockpile of that size makes engaging with them over future actions much more difficult.
It's not so much the number of weapons that is troublesome. Russia has roughly 5,900 nuclear warheads while the United States has a bit over 5,200. Rather, it's the rapid pace of expansion that has people on edge. China is increasing its grain production and expanding its military. It seems almost certain they are planning on a conflict of some sort. The only question is when it might happen.
And, given how inevitable most in the intelligence community feel about a conflict with China over Taiwan is, the Chinese government's decision to rapidly increase the size of its nuclear arsenal is deeply worrisome. If they do invade Taiwan, the U.S. has previously declared its support for the tiny island state. But direct conflict with China risks a lot of global disruption - economically and militarily - and any direct conflict between the U.S. and China would almost certainly bring us close to the next World War.
The growth of its nuclear arsenal, along with expanding its navy from 340 ships and submarines last year to more than 370 this year and other military expansions, is extremely noteworthy, but while current conflicts in Ukraine and Israel draw most of the national attention, China's actions seem to be escaping largely unnoticed.