With the BRICS alliance expanding, seven members of the previously existing G20 trade group are now members of the BRICS group. The influence of the G20 is diminishing and the BRICS group is gaining strength. This is the context for the modern era geopolitical dynamic that is taking place.
The G20 is ideologically anchored by the U.S. and EU as part of the western alliance. However, the BRICS group have started to cleave away from the “western worldview” specifically on the issue of energy development. We have talked about this dynamic quite a bit.
As a result of the increased influence of the BRICS group, specifically as an outcome of the U.S, EU and Australian weakening as a result of fundamentally changing their energy use at the altar of climate change, the western alliance is losing economic strength, and the BRICS team are gaining strength. The addition of Saudi Arabia to the BRICS team has boosted the BRICS control of traditional energy products.
The global shift in power is happening very fast as the climate change agenda is pushed by the U.S, EU and Canada. Issues that impact the G20 are no longer unilaterally controlled by a singular worldview. Now inside the G20 there are competing interests as a global realignment takes shape.
Within this dynamic, the attendees of the G20 summit were unable to construct a joint declaration that condemns Russia’s activity in Ukraine. Instead, the group had to modify their language to get all of the G20 nations, including Russia, to agree to the statement. China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Argentina are in alignment with the worldview of Russia. Although the Russia allies dislike the hostilities, there is a general understanding that Russia was being threatened by the U.S. pushing NATO expansion. Actions have consequences, and the leadership of the BRICS+ group align sympathetically with the justification that Russia presented.
Into this mix of disparate interests, the G20 summit in India was held, and for the first time the Western Alliance within the G20 seemed to recognize things had fundamentally changed. This was the first time the G20 group was together since Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and several other nations began talking to each other about a new economic landscape built on the global energy cleaving.
This also represented the first time Joe Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken were able to gauge how much American influence has been changed. The reality is starting to hit, and the reality is that America is losing power globally – yet retaining power amid a much smaller network of ideologically aligned western nations.
Using the Ukraine and Russia conflict as an example for what this new reality looks like, for the first time today US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken alluded in his remarks to ABC News that new borders were likely to be drawn in Ukraine, if/when discussions and negotiations begin between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
WATCH the moment at 3:36, …”where exactly this [conflict] settles, where lines are going to be drawn, that is going to be up to Ukrainians.”
THAT, is a major shift in the position of the Biden administration.