Welcome to coverage of Week 71 of Putin’s War in Ukraine. This week has been very slow politically and operationally. The most significant potential story was a rumored attack on Europe’s largest nuclear reactor, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant; see BREAKING. Russia and Ukraine Accuse Each Other of Planning an Attack Tonight on Europe’s Largest Nuclear Reactor. That, thankfully, never materialized.
Politico-Strategic Level
I’m not including any items in this category for the first time since the war started. This is not to say Ukraine has dropped from view but only to say that the things happening now don’t seem to have significance outside the event.
Operational Level
New Weapons
Ukraine to Receive Cluster Weapons
The Department of Defense is expected to announce as early as today that it will transfer tens of thousands of rounds of 155mm Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM). DPICM is a “cluster weapon” because its warhead comprises dozens of bomblets rather than a single “unitary” warhead. Even though we have not signed the international convention outlawing them, we have allowed ourselves to be bullied into essentially removing them from service. Instead of demilitarizing them, we are sending them to Ukraine.
More Geriatric Tanks Sighted
I’ve posted on elderly Soviet tanks showing up in the combat zone; see Week 56. Putin Indicted for War Crimes, Xi Visits Moscow, and Sevastopol Attacked for a Third Time and Week 69. As CNN Reports the Ukrainians Have Stalled the First Breakthrough Happens.
Now another trainload has been spotted on the way to Ukraine. We’ve seen a T-55 used as a vehicle bomb, but I doubt that is why they are shipping these tanks to Ukraine. I imagine we will start seeing them dug into fixed emplacements in the Russian fortification belt. If it gets to the point where we see T-55s duking it out with Leopards or Challengers, we can say the war is nearly over.
It has been speculated that the Russians may use these rustbuckets to provide indirect fire support. When I first heard of it, I dismissed it as nonsense. Maybe I was wrong.
More Attacks on Ukrainian Populations Centers
This is just more of the same. In this case, it isn’t that there aren’t military targets in and around Lviv to attack. There are. Lviv is on the major rail trunk that moves supplies from Poland to the front lines in Ukraine. The issue is that Russia isn’t making the slightest effort to strike military targets.
Combat Operations
Combat Near Bakhmut
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
The Tyranny of Mathematics
The proliferation of relatively cheap drones has shown that the reliance by the world’s armies on missile-based anti-aircraft defenses is simply not sustainable. Unfortunately, the major defense contractors don’t like gun-based systems for a lot of reasons, none of them particularly good. Hopefully, this war will motivate the US to invest in gun systems that can reliably defend vehicles and installations from suicide drone attacks without bankrupting us.
Open Source Intelligence
There have been a lot of cases of Russian troops posting TikTok videos of themselves online and those videos being used to strike them with artillery. If you want to see how easy it can be, without even using the geolocation in the video’s metadata, take a few minutes to watch this.
Mine Roller Basics
There is a lot of equipment available to help an assault force breach a minefield. This video is a Leopard tank using a mine roller, a medieval but effective technique to clear a lane through a minefield. During the video, the roller will clear anti-tank and scatterable anti-personnel mines.
Northern Front
Over the last couple of days, this story has gotten a lot of play on social media.
It seems to have originated in official Ukrainian circles. For this to work, over half of all Russian troops in Ukraine would have to be concentrated in a relatively small area. Then they would have to be supplied with fuel, ammunition, and food in an area that is not supportable by existing road or rail networks. To me, none of this looks like anything but an information operation that I’m too dumb to figure out.
Kharkiv
The Ukrainian Army has launched probing attacks or reconnaissance-in-force operations in Kharkiv. Not a lot has come of it, and I think its main purpose is to keep the Russians on their toes.
Donbas
Fighting continues north and south of Bakhmut, with Ukrainian forces regaining possession of critical high ground south of that city. Barring a drastic turn of events, Bakhmut could easily change hands again by early September.
Ammunition Depot Destroyed
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Progress continues by Ukrainian forces, but it is slow going as the leading elements encounter extensive minefields.
Kherson
Antonovsky Bridgehead Remains
The Antonovsky Bridgehead seems to have the effect of a laser pointer on a cat for the Russian military. The bridgehead is secure but not expanding, making its role of a distraction more likely. Here the bridge comes under fire from an Iskander short-range ballistic missile. Why you’d use this weapon on a target literally on the front lines will perhaps remain a mystery forever.
What’s Next?
A month into the offensive, the Ukrainians have yet to commit their best-trained and equipped troops. They also continue to make steady progress in some areas. Until the main force is revealed and fails to gain ground, I think pronouncements of the offensive failing are overblown.