It would appear that Joe Biden is no longer as confident about running for re-election as he let on during the first half of his first term. What’s more, Democratic politicians and donors are starting to panic a bit.
Originally, the Biden team seemed set on a February re-election announcement, but that’s been delayed as Biden has had to deal with multiple crises (which, to be fair, has pretty much been the MO of his entire presidency thus far). Now, it appears they want to hold off until April, but that’s just increasing the unease of the rest of the party.
POLITICO is out this morning with a look into what’s going on behind the scenes here, and it’s a pretty interesting story.
While the belief among nearly everyone in Biden’s orbit is that he’ll ultimately give the all-clear, his indecision has resulted in an awkward deep-freeze across the party — in which some potential presidential aspirants and scores of major donors are strategizing and even developing a Plan B while trying to remain respectful and publicly supportive of the 80-year-old president.
Democratic Govs. JB Pritzker of Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California and Phil Murphy of New Jersey have taken steps that could be seen as aimed at keeping the door cracked if Biden bows out — though with enough ambiguity to give them plausible deniability. Senators like Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar have been making similar moves.
As we’ve discussed before, Newsom has openly stated he isn’t running… if Joe Biden is. None of these other names would dare to openly challenge Biden, but each of them knows that this may be their best opportunity should Biden decide not to run for re-election.
People directly in touch with the president described him as a kind of Hamlet on Delaware’s Christina River, warily biding his time as he ponders the particulars of his final campaign. In interviews, these people relayed an impression that the conventional wisdom in Washington, D.C. — that there’s simply no way he passes on 2024 — has crystallized too hard, too soon.
“An inertia has set in,” one Biden confidant said. “It’s not that he won’t run, and the assumption is that he will. But nothing is decided. And it won’t be decided until it is.”
Biden’s biggest challenge is his stamina. There have been reports that the hours-long flight to Ukraine nearly wiped him out. His public appearances are filled with gaffes, slurred speech, and off-the-cuff remarks the White House constantly has to walk back.
In 2020, he ran a campaign from his basement (so, not really “running,” per se), so the stamina question didn’t come up as much. But the other issues were there and have only gotten worse.
The biggest problem the Democrats face is the bench if Biden decides not to run. Newsom is the most charismatic, but he is too far to the left to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters. Under his leadership, California has the largest out-migration crisis in the country, and he is behind some of the most progressive policies to be passed in the state. He’s Bernie Sanders, but younger and with arguably better hair.
Or worse hair, depending on your perspective.
Sanders’ is another name that keeps cropping up, but while he appeals to the same far-left that Newsom does, like Newsom his appeal to the moderates and independents is low.
Amy Klobuchar could maybe have a chance, but her last bid for president was lackluster at best.
And then… what about Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris? It’s clear they both want another shot at the throne, but they might be the two most unpopular politicians in the country right now.
So, the Democrats don’t really have many viable options. Biden won the nomination in 2020 because he was the only candidate capable of uniting the left and the middle, and coupled with the populace’s Trump burnout, the time was ripe for Biden to finally ascend to the presidency. But that was in 2020. The landscape in 2024 will look a whole lot different.