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If you’re a Republican, this theory might not be welcome. But you can take solace in the possibility that I could be dead wrong.
If former President Donald Trump is not the Republican Party’s presidential nominee for the 2024 election, they will not win the White House. Indeed, the chances of the GOP defeating the Democratic candidate are quite minuscule without the former president remaining the standard bearer.
But this is not the case because there is no other Republican candidate who would stand a favorable chance of winning in 2024. Indeed, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, along with the former president, has been a clear frontrunner and is highly favored by both conservative and moderate voters. Instead, it will be what happens after a DeSantis or other candidate is chosen by the base over the former president that will doom their chances of seeing another Republican in the Oval Office.
If Trump is not chosen as the nominee, it won’t be the end of his campaign. Instead, he will run as an independent, thereby spoiling Republicans’ odds of winning enough votes to defeat whomever the Democrats decide to run.
The former president caused quite a stir about a week ago when he posted a link on Truth Social to an article written for American Greatness in which author Dan Gelernter argued that this is precisely the course of action Trump should take if he loses in the primaries.
“The Republican machine has no intention of letting us choose Trump again: He is not a uniparty team player,” Gelernter wrote. “They’d rather lose an election to the Democrats, their brothers in crime, than win with Trump.”
The author indicated that while he likes DeSantis, he would “vote for him after Trump’s second term,” but “not before.”
He continued:
Here’s the thing: It is precisely the expedient view of “well, this person isn’t my first choice, but he’s the best available option who can win” which has allowed the uniparty to take over and ruin the country. We’re letting the Republicans get away with offering us a false dichotomy: A fake non-choice among candidates who are pre-selected for us. The Democrats did this themselves in 2016 when they stole the primary from Bernie Sanders.
After Trump shared the article, speculation arose as to whether mounting a third-party run would be the course of action he would pursue. Others pondered if such an endeavor could even be successful. Political analyst and professor at Florida Atlantic University Craig Agranoff told Newsweek that if a third-party presidential candidate won enough Electoral College votes to stop the two other candidates from reaching 270, it would “set a historic precedent.”
In such a scenario, the race would “be decided in the House of Representatives, where Donald Trump would possibly be victorious.”
“If Trump decides to run as an independent for the 2024 cycle, he will mainly pick-off votes from Republicans,” the professor continued. “If he can also grab some of the ‘Double Haters’ who respond to anti-establishment messaging, [it] could split the vote and also allow a Democrat to prevail or possibly shake up the two-party system which some are so hopeful will happen.”
I believe this is the most likely outcome. I do not believe that even President Trump could win the presidency by running as a third-party candidate. But there can be no doubt that he would siphon a substantial swath of conservative voters from the GOP – more than enough to ensure a Democratic victory. Even someone as well-loved as DeSantis would not be able to mitigate the damage.
Of course, there is the possibility that Trump will not decide to continue with his race if Republican voters choose another candidate in the primary elections. But given the man’s ego, it seems more likely that this is the course he will take. Love him or hate him, Donald Trump doesn’t like to lose and will gladly discard the Republican Party if it suits his interests – even if it means a Democratic victory.