As we did in 2015 and 2016, you are not going to find pretending in our analysis of the 2024 presidential race. Yes, my friends we are again going to deconstruct the GOPe roadmap and President Trump’s recent moves highlight his ability to see it also.
Before digging into the details, strategies and motives, let me make two things clear. First, CTH has no relationship with the campaign of President Trump. However, that said, we do share an identical ability to see the GOPe Club maneuvers.
Second, Trump’s moves are Trump’s moves. Meaning, President Trump is making these decisions himself personally. These are his calls, his choices, his strategies, his schedules. These moves are *NOT* coming from outside consultants, campaign advisors or even campaign management. These are 100% independent Trump decisions. I will explain to you how I can tell at a later date.
In the non-pretending world of GOPe conniving, scheming and Machievellian politics, both former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and current Senator Tim Scott will be announcing their intention to run for the GOPe nomination in the near future. This is not in doubt; their entry is assured. The reason is very simple, the Club roadmap contains both timing and roles for each to play. First, here’s Nikki encapsulated:
The RNC will determine the 2024 state primary sequencing next week, but South Carolina will almost assuredly be an early contest (inside first four).
With Tim Scott and Nikki Haley both bringing hometown advantage to the contest (not accidentally because all this stuff is mapped out folks), now you understand why President Trump is holding his first kick-off campaign event in South Carolina with Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham, on Saturday January 28th.
Pay attention to that January 28th kick-off and notice who will *not* be present.
Donald Trump is seeing the same GOPe map we are, and he is personally assembling neighborhood allies so that he is not caught without a network in a state that will have two hometown players competing against him. President Trump is leveraging his prior endorsement and support for both McMaster and Graham.
Factually, McMaster would not be in place if President Trump did not pull Nikki Haley out of the state and appoint her as U.N. Ambassador, then turn around and support McMaster to fill her spot. Additionally, President Trump has also always kept Graham close, despite the ideological economic policy differences, for exactly this type of leveraged moment. This is political chess, and President Trump can see the GOPe moves.
Now, let’s talk about roles.
Nikki Haley was always going to run in 2024 for the GOP nomination – SEE OUR ARCHIVES – this was never in question. All of her moves were predictable since she left the administration in January 2019. However, Nikki Haley is also not necessarily running for the office of the President, she’s running to be in a power position for the office of the President. In the current construct, she’s positioning to be Ron DeSantis’ vice-presidential candidate pick.
2021: …”“I don’t think [Trump’s] going to be in the picture,” she said, matter-of-factly. “I don’t think he can. He’s fallen so far.” […] “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.” (link)
A few weeks later: …”Out of respect I would never do anything to go against [Trump], he knows that. I would have a conversation with him and talk to him about it should we decide we want to pursue it; but, um, no, I have a great respect for him and I would never consider running against him.” (link) Video Prompted:
Thus, you see the conniving lying of Nikki Haley. (Anticipate video disappearing)
In the role she has carved out and also accepted, Nikki Haley is going to be the biggest attacker of President Trump on behalf of the management team protecting Ron DeSantis. Nikki has a very specific set of skills, including her willingness to be nasty – that makes her perfect for this role. Haley will be the tip of the spear, providing Ron DeSantis the opportunity to pretend he is just above it all.
Trump also knows DeSantis is pretending right now, and I have no doubt he can see the role Nikki Haley is positioned to play. Watch Trump continue hitting DeSantis as Haley moves in for cover.
You might remember Trump hitting Xi Jinping of China every time Kim Jong-un of North Korea did a directed by Beijing stupid thing. He’ll do the same thing here. DeSantis in the role of Chairman Xi and Haley in the role of Chairman Kim. Each time Haley does the passive aggressive slaps, Trump will hit DeSantis with something.
Haley has no chance at the nomination. Coastal establishment Republicans love her, but that only means she will have money, not votes. The Republican voting base has seen through her schemes and wind-testing for years. Haley is not stupid, she knows this. Heck, even Liz Cheney polls higher than Nikki Haley.
Haley’s positioning right now is for 2023 power and influence despite her lack of base voter support. The best she can hope to achieve in 2024 is a VP pick to get her in the target zone.
Senator Tim Scott is on a pure GOPe mission. He’s the utility insider, the team player taking the South Carolina field to support the team goal of blocking Trump. Scott is visible diversity, yet ideological alignment with the GOPe Club mission.
Tim Scott’s role is what Tim Scott is good at, being a team player on behalf of the GOPe and giving the South Carolina Republican voters, those who detest Haley, an alternative.
What Marco Rubio was in Florida 2016 for non-Jeb voters, Tim Scott is in 2024 South Carolina for non-Nikki voters.
President Trump has this mapped out in exactly this format. CTH saw this SC Desantis/Haley/Scott alignment forming last year and we said to prepare for a great deal of announcing as soon as the RNC winter meeting concludes…. Which happens not coincidentally, to conclude at the same time as Trump’s kick-off in South Carolina. Again, strategery.
The GOPe outline includes Harmeet Dhillon as part of team ‘Ready for Ron,’ and the DeSantis management and branding team have recruited all the customary conservative media allies to stop Donald Trump. Their problem is the inauthentic and deceptive nature of running for ’24 while pretending they are not running for ’24. It’s cowardly.
The 2024 operation includes RdS hiding behind the willing skirt of Nikki Haley and then pontificating.
Keep watching.
I keep saying the 2024 GOP nomination is going to be fun because this is an epic Wall Street -vs- Main Street battle that needs to be done. The conniving Republican political class are openly wearing their anti-working class uniforms now. Despite their efforts to remain hidden, and thanks entirely to their hubris, they are glowing.
The primary contest in 2024 is going to be epic, because this time the MAGA scruffnecks will, for the first time in years, clearly see who the enemy within the Republican ranks really are. This makes them so much easier to defeat, and also explains why the professional managers behind Ron DeSantis are desperate to keep his alignment hidden.
Emerson College Polling conducted a granular poll in late November [DATA HERE] & [Cross Tabs Here] highlighting some really interesting stuff.
First, amid GOP voters, Liz Cheney at 4% is beating Ted Cruz (3%), Nikki Haley (3%) and Larry Hogan (1%) for the 2024 GOP nomination. How funny is that?
I mean it’s funny as hell when you look at it from the position of Nikki Haley and the detached billionaires that are going to have to fund her. We’re just not into you Nikki. LOL. Also, I mean, c’mon, ya gotta laugh. Imagine being one of the former 2016 members of Team Ted Cruz and seeing the insufferable Liz Cheney beating him in current 2022 polling… Seriously, ROFLMAO. Yer’ killing me. I mean could the Cruz Crew pick a winner or what? Too funny.
Even better are the ways Emerson uses the demographics of the poll to explain the political alignment and who the typical supporters are for President Donald Trump (55%) -vs- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (25%). The Emerson polling data nails the demographics perfectly.
(Emerson) – […] Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “There is a stark education divide among Republican primary voters. A 71% majority of voters with a high school degree or less support Trump in 2024 whereas 14% support DeSantis.
A 53% majority of those with a college degree, some college, or associate’s degree support Trump while 28% support DeSantis. By contrast, Republican voters with a postgraduate degree are most split: 32% support Trump, 29% support DeSantis, and 18% support Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.”
Kimball added: “There is also an age divide in the Republican primary: younger voters under 50 break for Trump over DeSantis 67% to 14%, voters between 50 and 64 break for Trump 54% to 32%, while Republicans over 65 are more split: 39% support Trump and 32% DeSantis.” (read more)
So, President Trump wins every demographic, but to see what groups leans more favorably toward Ron DeSantis it looks like this:
DeSantis Voters – Older, over educated, wealthy, Wall-Street, non-working, investment class, predominately white, left-leaning Republicans with delicate sensibilities. The more of each of these attributes the person carries, the more likely they are to support DeSantis.
Trump Voters – Younger and middle-aged, multi-racial, working class, hardcore, Main Street, paycheck earners. ie. the middle class. The more of each of these attributes the person carries, the more likely they are to support President Trump.
It doesn’t get much more easily defined.
Trump is defined by Main Street. DeSantis is defined by Wall Street.
That demographic data shows the pattern analysis of exactly what is going on.
It doesn’t matter how many candidates line up in the non-MAGA political lane; they are all coming from the same cocktail class circuit.
Here comes the kicker…. As more people find out about the management operation of Ron DeSantis, that has been happening in the background, the more DeSantis will bleed support back toward MAGA.
Think of this in realistic terms. Team MAGA is running on authenticity and honesty. Team DeSantis has to run on duplicity (pretending not to be running) and continual defense to keep people from finding out about the inauthentic and dishonest nature of the operation.
Ask yourself, which team would you rather be on?
Within that answer you discover why this campaign is going to be so much fun.
MAGA has nothing to hide. The GOPe have everything to hide.
We can admit every downside because the ultimate goal is pure. They must deny every downside because the ultimate goal is duplicity.
MAGA has nothing to lose that we haven’t already lost because of the GOPe corruption and lies. However, the GOPe have everything to lose in their effort to retain power.
Truth is a powerful weapon, and no one uses that weapon better than Donald J Trump.
Yes, I’m smiling at how easy it is going to be for President Donald Trump to trigger them.