It’s all a ruse; an economic shell game being played for politics – nothing more.
Consider this quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell today, “Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in September, total PCE prices rose 6.2 percent. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PCE prices rose 5.1 percent. And the recent inflation data again have come in higher than expected. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services. Russia’s war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and has created additional upward pressure on inflation.” (source)
You can argue Powell’s points of demand side inflation all day long, it matters not. It’s nonsense. Take interest rates to 10%, or even eleventy percent, and that will not stop inflation because demand is not creating it. Current inflation is a supply side issue, driven by a radical change in energy policy. I have made this case for well over a year, sooner or later people are going to have to stop believing the demand side nonsense.
As Powell himself noted, “with today’s action, we’ve raised interest rates by 3 ¾ percentage points this year,” and yet inflation hasn’t flinched. Why? Because there was no excess consumer demand to tame all year. Demand for consumer goods has been in a freefall since the fall of 2021, while the prices of those goods have remained on an upward trajectory because costs associated with producing them continue rising. That’s a supply side inflation issue, not demand – but Powell cannot admit it.
Powell […] “Even so, we still have some ways to go. And incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected. Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.
We’re taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”
If you want to take the pretending out of the paragraph and make it truthful, insert the word energy:
“We’re taking forceful steps to moderate [energy] demand, so that it comes into better alignment with [policy driven energy] supply.”
There. THAT’S THE TRUTH !!
Ask yourself, or anyone else, this simple question:
...At what point in the process of raising interest rates does the price of gasoline, home heating, natural gas, electricity, diesel fuel or food start to drop?
How does a 15% federal interest rate lower food prices?
