To this point, the US Senate race in Pennsylvania has taken top billing in election-related discussions. Republican Mehmet Oz had closed the gap with Democrat John Fetterman to make it a true toss-up as the latter’s health issues have started to weigh on the electorate.
But there’s another race going on that is not only just as big but appears to be favoring the GOP in a way that could ultimately deliver control of the Senate. I’m talking about Nevada, where Republican Adam Laxalt is facing off against Democrat incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez-Mastro.
Sunday delivered another round of fresh polling, and Republicans are winning across the board.
Election 101 tells us that any incumbent below 50 percent is in the danger zone. Given that Cortez-Mastro is at 43 percent, she’s well past the point of simple worry. Rather, things are entering doomsday territory for her. For further context, Laxalt has led every single poll in the last month, and he shows no sign of slowing down.
Alright, so let’s get to what you are really here for, which is the scenarios.
First, let’s look at Georgia because the GOP is counting on a victory there to set things up. Warnock is currently up 0.7 percent in the RCP average of polls, though a few surveys with very bad track records are bolstering that. Namely, Fox News and Marist, both of which have been really bad polling state-level over the last several cycles. Still, it’s essentially tied, and given the fundamentals at play in a first-term mid-term for a party in power, Warnock has to be looked at as a slight underdog.
Then there’s Pennsylvania, which we talked about in the opening of this article. Oz is within a few points and he has gained a ton of ground over the last few weeks. With Fetterman stumbling and his message of saying “New Jersey” over and over waning, Republicans have a real shot to defy whatever polling deficit is left there.
On to Wisconsin, things appear to be pretty safe for Republicans as incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson has nailed Democrat Mandela Barnes on crime and his overall radicalism. The flip-side of that is Arizona, where Republican Blake Masters is hanging in there, but Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly is still a favorite.
To make a long story short, assuming Republicans hold Wisconsin as everyone expects, the GOP needs to take two of four seats in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. That’s why Laxalt doing so well is such a huge development. If the GOP takes Nevada, it’s almost unthinkable that they wouldn’t pull out at least one more seat given that Nevada is the bluer of those four states.
Further, a Laxalt victory also opens the door for the GOP to run the score up a bit. Imagine if Oz and Walker also win and suddenly Republicans don’t just hold the Senate, but they have breathing room. And given how favorable the map is for the GOP in 2024, you could see Republicans end up with 55-56 seats just a few years from now. I’m getting ahead of myself, but still, things look much better than they did in August.
Of course, I warned everyone at the time that summer polling is garbage and to not ignore the fundamentals. Sure enough, things are shifting, and there aren’t going to be enough buckets for the tears come November.