West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin was on every Sunday talk show today (CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS and Fox) responding to his reversal of position on the Build Back Better legislative package (Green New Deal spending) that is part of the senate budget reconciliation bill. There is something very interesting in his justification. [Do not skim read this, all citations included]
Fox News Brett Bair does the best job challenging Manchin on his prior statements saying there would be no spending deal without first seeing the August inflation data. [LINK]. Manchin never answered that hypocrisy directly but says there are two components of the deal, two parts of a new future legislative bill, that brought him to the agreement on the $370 billion current spend.
The current Senate bill is a reconciliation bill, meaning it involves taxes and spending – AND ONLY taxes and spending, because the bill originated in the House.
The constitutional framework for taxes & spending requires the House to originate all spending bills. If a desired additional measure does not involve taxes and spending (a budgetary impact) it cannot be added to a reconciliation bill. The senate must originate a new bill and then send it to the House.
According to Manchin the deal between himself, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden includes his support for the current green energy spending, in exchange for two new items in future legislation: 1) Streamlined energy permitting/regulation; and 2) Increased development of Oil, Coal, Gas. Both of these pieces of legislation have to be handled in a separate Senate bill.
According to Manchin, his agreement to the current spending bill was contingent upon a promise that: (A) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will generate a new bill for streamlined energy permitting and increased oil, gas and coal development; (B) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take up the Senate bill and whip enough of her House Democrat membership to join with Republicans in support of that Senate bill; and (C) Joe Biden will sign that increased energy production bill.
Here’s the important part. Senator Manchin claims he has leverage over Biden, Pelosi and Schumer to ensure a new bill with those priorities is created and advanced. Manchin further claims there are “consequences” for Biden, Pelosi and Schumer if they were to renege on the deal. He is quite emphatic about that point if you listen to the NBC interview.
Now ask yourself…. What leverage would Senator Manchin have over Biden, Schumer and Pelosi that would ensure they would not double-cross him?
There is only one Occam’s razor answer:
Joe Manchin threatened to switch political parties if any of them reneged on the deal.
The NBC interview with Chuck Todd questioning Joe Manchin is very interesting. It is actually the best interview of all five conducted, in part because it seems like Chuck Todd has full knowledge of the Manchin threat component.
Manchin was challenged in three of the five interviews about this promised future legislative component. In each of the interviews Manchin affirms and reaffirms there would be consequences if Schumer, Pelosi and Biden try to renege on the deal. However, it is the Meet the Press Chuck Todd interview that really gets in deeper and overlays some sunlight on this issue.
WATCH at 04:03 of the video below, Chuck Todd has knowledge of the “deal” in detail and pushes Manchin on his “consequences” statement. Then watch the very end of this interview (09:05) when Chuck Todd tries to pin Manchin down on the importance of Democrats holding the Senate. Chuck Todd knows the unspoken threat that Manchin outlines as consequences.
Chuck Todd knows the “consequences”. He tried to pin Manchin down. Manchin obfuscated.
You put it all together and it starts making sense.
Senator Joe Manchin cut a deal for removal of regulatory roadblocks to current energy programs and expanded energy development. Schumer has to generate the legislation permitting faster investment in current oil, gas, coal. Nancy Pelosi has to pass it in the House. Joe Biden has to sign it and change EPA/Interior Dept policy. In exchange for that, Joe Manchin has agreed to the $370 billion green new deal energy spending programs.
If Schumer, Pelosi or Biden renege, then Manchin switches parties and the Senate flips into Republican control immediately. That’s his leverage.
Someone needs to ask Manchin: (A) what is the timeframe for the new legislative package; and (B) is this an accurate assessment of the “consequences” he outlined.
Here’s the other interviews: