The overturning of Roe v. Wade is now solidly in the rearview mirror, with the news cycle shifting back to January 6th (because what else?) and a recent mass shooting in Illinois.
Still, the issue remains a hot topic for pollsters who seem to relish in producing results that admonish the monumental Supreme Court decision. Over and over, we are told that Americans don’t support the ending of Roe (and Casey) in favor of the Dobbs judgment.
But is that actually true? The simple answer is that the polling on the issue of abortion continues to make absolutely zero sense and to illustrate that, I present to you the latest Harvard/Harris poll.
These results are just mind-numbing because they are nothing but a ball of contradictions. 55 percent do not approve of the overturning of Roe. Yet, 44 percent, a plurality, believe that states should be able to make their own laws regarding abortion.
But the biggest “huh” moment comes when you see that 72 percent (!) of Americans believe that abortion should be banned after 15 weeks. Guess that that requires? The overturning of Roe (and Casey).
To summarize, you’ve got far more than a super-majority in favor of a provision that requires the ending of something they claim they don’t support ending. Again, it’s just mind-numbing.
So are Americans just really dumb? Or are they being fed so much misinformation that they don’t even know that they hold contradictory positions? I think the answer is mostly the latter. The media have been relentless in conflating the ending of Roe with a supposed federal ban on abortion that simply doesn’t exist. Pollsters also often choose to make their questions on the specific court decisions as inflammatory as possible.
Still, what we are seeing even in the contradictions of this poll is that Americans’ true feelings are far more in line with the Republican position than the Democrat position. Almost no one supports abortion until birth, which is the current Democrat Party platform plank. Further, and perhaps most importantly, the idea that the Supreme Court decision would drive Democrat enthusiasm doesn’t appear to be true. The poll shows both Democrats and Republicans within just a few points of each other on whether Dobbs will make them more likely to vote for each respective party, with a full 29 percent saying it will make no difference (which is the most likely outcome, in my opinion).
To end, I’ll speculate that Republicans are winning on this issue. Polls continue to show less and less support overall for Roe while the issue polling overwhelmingly favors the GOP position. Lastly, it’s fairly obvious this isn’t going to be a deciding factor in November’s mid-terms. That’s terrible news for a Democrat Party that desperately needed a game-changer.