What does the state of the midterms look like at this point? We’ve been predicting a red wave, but have the Democrats trying to jack up the base over the abortion issue changed the outlook and helped their prospects? We’d previously reported right after the SCOTUS leak broke about the likely overturning of Roe v. Wade that there hadn’t yet been any move toward the Democrats. Has that changed?
Not so much.
According to PJ Media, Cook Political Report just moved 10 of 12 races toward the Republicans.
“As the parties navigate primaries and begin polling and placing fall ad buys, Republicans’ House advantage looks as robust as ever,” writes David Wasserman. For independent voters, inflation has become such a dominant concern that neither a Supreme Court ruling on Roe v. Wade nor January 6 hearings are likely to drastically alter the midterms’ trajectory, and multiple district-level surveys show Democratic incumbents in perilous shape against unknown GOP challengers.”
The only changes in those races that don’t favor the GOP are Young Kim’s race in California — Cook only downgraded that contest from “Likely R” to “Lean R,” which means she can still pull off the win — and Lauren Underwood’s race in Illinois, which Cook shifted from “Lean D” to “Likely D.”
Cook is predicting a pick-up of 20-35 seats.
Wasserman said that even in the districts that Biden won by 10 to 15 points, Democrats are in danger because of how bad Biden’s approval is.
I think that their estimates are conservative, particularly if we consider how horrible Biden’s approval is and how bad inflation is, both of which are at historically bad levels. Add that on top of the normal historical shift to the party that doesn’t have the White House in the midterms and 35 seats seems low, but as I said, Cook is likely being careful and probably not going out on a limb so you can likely make book on at least this, all things remaining equal. While things can change, Biden’s approval just seems to keep getting worse all the time.
Right now, the Senate is locked and if even one seat shifts, that’s a big gain for the Republicans and that just might happen in Georgia, for example, with more people coming out for Herschel Walker in the primary than Raphael Warnock, and the Republicans coming out in far greater numbers than Democrats, even considering a percentage of crossover votes playing political games. Nevada and Arizona are also swing states where a wave could readily tip to the Republicans.