If we were to conduct a snap poll on social media and ask: If Donald Trump runs for president in 2024 (it’s inconceivable at this point that he won’t), will he win back the White House? Responses would range from “Hell yes” to “Hell no” — with a myriad of other responses and plenty of heated debate in between.
While favorability ratings, head-to-head projections, and various other projection tools are of course based on currently available sentiment and data, and numbers can change in a political heartbeat as situations or future developments warrant, Trump bests Biden in virtually every poll and survey.
It’s hard to see that changing.
RealClearPolitics averages, as I write, show Biden with a -9.1 percent spread, with a favorability rating of 42.6 percent and 51.7 percent unfavorable. Trump clocks in at -3.5, at 45.8 percent favorable, and 49.3 percent unfavorable. And Kamala Harris is a total disaster at -11.8 percent: 39.2 percent favorable, 50.8 percent unfavorable.
Again, poll numbers are subject to change on a regular basis, yet we continue to see a pattern, and the message of that pattern could not be clearer: Joe Biden has been a failed president of disastrous proportions from Day One of his occupation of the Oval Office on issue after issue, virtually on purpose. (See: Biden Border Crisis, Biden Oil Crisis, Biden Afghanistan Debacle, Bidenomics, Bidenflation.)
As my colleague, Nick Arama reported on Tax Day last week (of all days), when even CNN declares it’s “really, really, really, bad” for Biden? Yeah, it’s really, really, really bad for the worst president in modern history — if not of all time. As Nick noted in the article:
Donald Trump had an average job approval rating of 42 percent at this point in his presidency — that’s despite being under constant media attack so that skews the number. But meanwhile, Joe Biden who has had largely positive coverage from the liberal media — and certainly nothing compared to the attacks made against Trump — is still at a lower number — with 41 percent.
As early as late September 2021, just eight months into the Biden presidency, as reported by The Atlantic, nervous top Democrats began to openly discuss his failures and lack of success. Bills began to stall in Congress, rank-and-file Democrats had already begun to deny Biden the same “grace” they showered on Barack Obama, and the ever-confused Mumbles Joe was having trouble staying on track.
These realities have progressively (pun intended) worsened as the months have ticked by — further exacerbated by the 79-year-old president’s continued steady decline in mental acuity.
The bottom line: I have to believe nervous-as-hell Democrat lawmakers would wave a magic wand if they had one, and make Biden and Harris disappear — at least from the 2024 presidential ticket. Moreover, I can’t help but believe there aren’t discussions to that effect in the upper echelons of the Democrat Party. My opinion, of course.
So what of Donald Trump?
As I suggested at the top, even the most casual of political observers would be flabbergasted at this point if Trump pulled up on his reins sometime in the next month or two and said, “Nah, I’m no longer interested; I’m out.” Stranger things have happened, but yeah; talk about a major jolt.
Fifteen months after leaving office, Trump remains the kingmaker of the Republican Party. Pilgrimages are still made to Mar-a-Lago on a regular basis in pursuit of his coveted endorsement. Crowds at his Trumpaloozas seem to be as large and boisterous as ever. And most of all, avid supporters want nothing more than a rematch with Biden — to restore the rightful order of things, as it were.
If Biden does run — a disaster for the Democrat Party of incalculable proportions — I can’t see how Trump loses. 2024, in this case, would be similar to 2016 and 2020. In 2016, millions of votes were “Not Hillary,” while untold numbers of votes in 2020 were “Not Trump.”
While some in the Republican Party tend to go off the rails over the notion, it’s true — particularly among independent voters. That said, I can’t foresee tens of millions of disillusioned and angry independents, along with a substantial number of like-minded Democrats, voting for Biden again.
So back to Donald.
As noted by Just the News, Trump tends to do better in job approval ratings than in favorability ratings.
While the latter focuses more on personal feelings, the former is more about a subject’s performance in office. Throughout Trump’s time in the White House, consistent polling showed the public approved of his job as president more than they approved of him as a person. Now, toss in Biden’s catastrophic job performance — and Trump looks unstoppable.
But again, what if neither Biden nor Cackles Kamala heads the Democrat ticket in 2024? Would “Teflon Don” still be unstoppable?
In terms of the primaries, if Trump does run, I can’t see Ron DeSantis or any other serious contender entering the race; I believe “they” would sit this one out and wait until 2028 or even 2032 to make a decision to run, so the likelihood of a Trump vs. (fill in the blank) race could very well become a reality.
Who wins? Who can predict a race against a “yet-to-be-announced Democrat nominee not named Joe Biden or Kamala Harris”? I cannot; neither can anyone else. Objectively, that is.