During the first week of March, RedState reported on a claim by CNN that Joe Biden was on the comeback trail following his disastrously irrelevant State of the Union address. In an article penned by Chris Cillizza, a poll from NPR was cited showing the president rising to 47 percent approval. Even at the time, that was an outlier, but it was enough to create a broader media narrative that Biden had a chance to reverse his fortunes, even if only somewhat.
We heard similar suggestions of a comeback following Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, with the idea that Biden would present himself as a world leader and garner a “rally around the flag” bump. That never really materialized.
Now, we finally have a poll that measured Biden’s numbers just before Ukraine was invaded as well as nearly a month later, covering a highly relevant time period that confirms the president’s woes have not subsided. Monmouth’s latest survey has the president’s approval unchanged at 39 percent from their pre-Ukraine invasion survey, i.e. the last month’s events provided him zero bounce.
Who could have guessed that sky-high inflation, exploding gas prices, Europe being invaded by Russia, and a new Iran deal giveaway wouldn’t lead to Biden rising from the ashes? It was always ridiculous to suggest that Biden would somehow garner more support by showcasing his leadership during these times of crisis. Of course, CNN and Chris Cillizza are ridiculous, but I digress. When one’s leadership is objectively awful, that is not going to garner them more support, and simply “being president” is not enough to rally Americans anymore in face of hardship and failure.
And while I find this Monmouth poll especially relevant because of the time period and trend involved, lest anyone accuse me of cherry-picking, here are all the polls that have come out in the last week covering Biden’s approval.
Here’s the thing with Biden’s approval numbers. Even if his aggregate approval was say, 45 percent, that would still be terrible and a prelude to a red wave in November’s election. What that means in the simplest terms is that Biden could have a “comeback” of some sort and still be so far underwater that it won’t matter. That’s what has to have Democrats panicking. There is no path back from this, not historically and not logically.
Besides, if a foreign policy distraction like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can’t garner Biden even a single percent higher on his approval via a unity bounce, what exactly will? Gas prices are going to remain high through the summer at least, and it will take months for them to taper down from there if oil prices continue to stabilize as they have. Record inflation is also not going away anytime soon, as it will take until earlier 2023 for the effects of higher interest rates to start really showing up.
In short, the Biden presidency will continue to smolder. Americans are not buying the excuses, and the more lies Jen Psaki and the rest of the White House team tell, the more opposition will harden.