Last week, the numbers in the latest jobs report were, for once, actually unexpected. Despite the ADP survey showing a loss of 200,000 jobs, the official BLS survey clocked in with an addition of 467,000 jobs. Clearly, given the White House’s prior conditioning of the public, not even they expected such a result.
As you can expect, Joe Biden took a victory lap. After all, it’s quite an accomplishment to burn down the jobs market with government intervention and then have it recover to a lesser level than when things started. The president has red states that have defied his dictates to thank for most of the recovery.
Sarcasm aside, though, that “good news” was reason enough for some to assert that Biden was primed for a rebound. Let’s check in on that, shall we?
Far from the claims of an imminent comeback, Biden continues to languish, now reaching his lowest point ever in the RCP average. Further, if you look at the last three polls, they were all taken after that jobs report was released. What do they show? 41 percent, 40 percent, and 41 percent approval.
It’s the aggregate that’s really striking, though. While individual polls have shown Biden below 40 percent in the past, this is his first trip below that level in the average, and it’s a milestone worth talking about. In fact, I think it tells us a lot about not just where Biden is with the public currently, but what that means for the future.
There is a point in a presidency where things become largely baked in. That’s not to say that a president at 46 percent approval can’t rise to 50 percent approval, but it is to say that large swings become increasingly unlikely the more polarized the electorate gets. That means that a “good” jobs report becomes a one-day news story that does little to change the political environment. That’s exactly what we are seeing with Biden.
The catalyst, though it seems like ancient history at this point, was the Afghanistan debacle. That was the moment a majority of the American people not only started to disapprove of Biden, but they also lost confidence in his ability to even do the job. His constant bouts of senility played a role as well. By the time the president’s failures surrounding the pandemic became clear in the fall, the collapse was nearly complete.
Then, inflation was the death blow. Instead of admitting his policies were failing, Biden only doubled down, blaming “Big Meat” and other faux bogeymen for rising prices. By the time January’s jobs numbers came out, most Americans were more than aware of the context behind them and weren’t primed to give the president much of any credit for burning down the house and only halfway rebuilding it.
I say all that to say that the idea of a Biden rebound is a fantasy. It’s wish-casting based on the faulty premise that the American people are against the president simply because of circumstances that are out of his control. No, they are against him because his incompetence has cost them dearly, most noticeably in regards to their pocketbooks as gas and other prices continue to skyrocket. Yes, COVID-19 is likely to subside further, but that’s not going to be enough, and there will be recriminations of Democrat officials, including Biden, who worked so hard to make people miserable.
In short, there is no magic piece of positive news that will change the political dynamic for Biden and his party before the November election. The red wave cometh.