I’ve been saying for a while that unlike Barack Obama and Donald Trump, Joe Biden has no floor when it comes to his support. Blame that on what you will, but I’m feeling pretty good about that assertion right now.
ABC News, in conjunction with The Washington Post, has released its latest survey, with the current White House resident falling to a record low of 37 percent approval. And things get worse once you dig into the numbers, so stick around.
Only 30 percent approval among independents is honestly a number I never thought I’d see. Even though I was certain Biden’s presidency would be a failure (I mean, look at the guy’s history), I figured his ho-hum “return to normalcy” schtick would carry enough weight to keep him at least in the 40s among independents through his first mid-term. But, the first year of Biden’s presidency has been everything but normal, with Russia’s invasion of Europe being yet another mark on the board against those who insisted decorum should be the top qualification during the 2020 election. Elections do indeed have consequences.
As I said, though, when you dig into the numbers, things get even worse for the Democrats. Republicans hold a massive seven-point advantage in the generic ballot, but when the poll is weighted for those who are more likely to vote this November, that lead stretches to an eye-watering 13 points. That’s so horrific for the Democrat Party that I’m not even sure what that would look like. Really, it’s hard to game out.
Remember that Republicans have won wave elections (such as in 2010) while holding just a two- or three-point lead on the generic ballot. What’s a 13-point lead going to translate to if that’s anywhere close to the number on election day? A 60+ seat pickup, when the gap is already only nine seats? Winning 53 or 54 Senate seats? Sweeping Republicans into power in state elections at a level not seen in generations? The sweet meteor of death finally arriving?
And just to dump a little more bad news on the left, this poll ended the day Russia invaded Ukraine. It is logical to assume that Biden’s approval is going to drop further, given his fecklessness (including dealing with EU countries like Germany) and lack of strategic sense helped empower Putin to make his move. Further, though they are hanging tough right now, if Ukraine has to eventually make concessions to Putin that make it beholden to Russia again, that disaster is going to fall squarely on the West’s leadership, with Joe Biden being first and foremost.
Could we see normally Democrat-favoring polls like this ABC News survey showing Biden in the low 30s soon enough? It’s not unthinkable anymore.