To me, this is just jaw-dropping. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made statements today akin to saying the emperor is wearing a beautiful coat. I can share examples, but to really encapsulate the issues, it’s actually easier to start by sharing a chart he presented when discussing inflation.
Do you notice anything missing in this chart? Look at it carefully.
If you look at it and say: “hey, where’s the actual 2021 data he is talking about“, give yourself a cookie.
The guy is talking about the issue of 2021 inflation and expressing his empathy that inflation is running “far ahead” of the federal reserve projections. Yet, the graphic Powell uses doesn’t even show the 2021 rate of inflation that he is expressing his concern about.
Why wouldn’t the graphic show the rate of inflation for 2021? Well, take one look at what the graph would look like, and you realize immediately why he would not want to put it in front of people.
This is in essence what the graphic would look like if Powell included the 2021 inflation he is concerned about:
The 6.8% inflation rate is just about where the dot in the “j” of the word projection would be located. That’s where we are currently.
Now, do you really think that scale of inflation is going to drop in a dramatic inverted V formation to where the Fed projects it will end up next year (the little red line in the thing that looks like a battery)? Pro Tip: It won’t.
The chairman even said he anticipates “strong inflation throughout next year” into 2023.
Worse still, are his remarks leading into the segment where he talks about inflation:
(1) Powell claims the Fed “can see no signs of weakening consumer demand“. Who in the Sam-hell is he talking to, and how can they not see a drop in consumer demand?
(2) Perhaps worse, the Fed Chairman says almost nothing about the largest ever drop in productivity last quarter (-5%), and instead is only slightly worried that the drop in productivity is larger than the increase in wages (+3%). Whiskey – Tango – Foxtrot. Does this guy not have anyone on Main Street who talks to him? If I’m an employer paying three percent more and generating five percent less, what do you think I’m about to do?
Watch his remarks from 03:23 to 05:13 of the video below (prompted), and you will see what I mean:
The key takeaway is this….
…. Take care of your family, this is only going to get worse.
