There
is deep international concern over Mali's discussions with the
controversial Russian private military company, the Wagner group, but
many Malians feel the Russians cannot replace French troops soon enough.
The
group was first identified in 2014 when it was backing pro-Russian
separatists in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Since then, it has been
involved in countries including Syria, Mozambique, Sudan, Libya and the
Central African Republic.
Back
in 2013, there was a jubilant welcome for the French soldiers when they
arrived in Mali after Islamist militants had hijacked a rebellion and
threatened to seize control of the whole country.
But
President Emmanuel Macron recently said the 5,000-strong French
contingent would be reduced by half, prompting Mali's Prime Minister
Choguel Maiga to accuse France of abandoning his country.
This
in turn sparked a furious response from France, with Armed Forces
Minister Florence Parly accusing Mali's government of "wiping your feet
on the blood of French soldiers".
President
Macron said he was "shocked" at the accusation, condemning Mali's
military government, which he said had no "democratic legitimacy"
following two coups in less than a year.
But public opinion in Mali has undoubtedly turned against the presence of troops from the former colonial power.
Eight
years after the French arrived, the security crisis has spread to
Burkina Faso and Niger, with numerous different groups, some linked to
al-Qaeda or the Islamic State group, roaming the region from their bases
in the Sahara Desert.
About 55 French soldiers and several hundreds of Malians have been killed.
Enraged
by the deepening insecurity, Malians hold regular protests against the
French military and accuse them of failing to make any difference in the
fight against the jihadists. They call the presence of French soldiers
an occupation, and demand their speedy exit.
Many are happy for the Russians to replace them.
'Russia is more neutral'
Oumar Cissé, a prominent peace campaigner in the restive Mopti region, said Russia was a historical partner of the Malian army.
"Russia
has no interest in Malian politics unlike France, which manages the
conflict according to its economic and political interests," he told the
BBC.
Some
activists say the presence of the French forces itself was a catalyst
of the jihadist violence. France has long opposed negotiations with
jihadists, an option favoured by some Malians.
There have been no public protests against Russia but public opinion towards the proposed intervention from Wagner is divided.
The
Coordination of the Movements of the Azawad (CMA), a coalition of
former Arab and Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, said working with the
Russians would be a threat to their 2015 peace deal.
The
international consternation over a deal with Wagner is linked to the
shadowy reputation of the mercenary organisation. The Russian
government's denial of links to the group is also treated with
suspicion.
However,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has confirmed that Mali had
"turned to a private military company from Russia" to help fight
jihadist groups.
Russia
entered the fray in CAR in 2017 as part of efforts to expand its
influence across the continent. It gave the African country weapons,
ammunition and 175 military instructors.
The
British foreign office described the Wagner group as "a driver of
conflict" and said it "capitalises on instability for its own interests,
as we have seen in other countries affected by conflict such as Libya
and the Central African Republic".
If
the deal with Mali does go ahead, it would signal a major expansion of
Russia's military interests in Africa and a strategic setback for the
West. The deployment of Russian military contractors would signal a
profound break with France and the West.
French
Minister Ms Parly warned that "we will not be able to cohabit with
mercenaries". She later accused the Malian prime minister of "hypocrisy,
bad faith and indecency" after he said his administration was not
consulted on the drawdown of the French mission, Operation Barkhane.
Germany
and Estonia, whose forces serve under a Mali-based European force
called Takuba, have also threatened to pull out their soldiers.
The West African regional bloc Ecowas strongly denounced the plan to hire private security companies.
Russian helicopters arrive
In
the face of rising public anger against France, the choice of Russia
has been easy. Mali and Russia have maintained close ties in recent
years, especially since 1994 when they signed a defence cooperation
agreement which was revised in 2019.
Defence Minister Sadio Camara and some leading members of Mali's junta were trained in Russia.
On
Thursday, he welcomed the arrival of four military helicopters from
Russia, which he described as "a friendly country with which Mali has
always maintained a very fruitful partnership". He said this was part of
a deal agreed in December 2020 - long before the French drawdown was
announced.
The
Russian involvement could also be a convenient excuse for Mali's
interim government to extend its term in office, following the military
takeover in May.
Debate
has been raging over whether the country's ruler, Col Assimi Goïta,
will honour a pledge to hold a referendum on a new constitution on 31
October and general elections on 21 February 2021.
Prime Minister Maiga has said elections could be postponed.
A
military partnership between Mali and its neighbours to tackle jihadist
groups in the region, the G5-Sahel states, could also come under
strain.
Niger's Foreign Minister, Hassoumi Massaoudou, said the alliance would "certainly" collapse if Mali hired the Wagner group.
Whether
or not the Russians are sent to Mali, jihadist groups, which recently
celebrated the exit of the US from Afghanistan and drew parallels with
the French drawdown in West Africa, could seek to exploit the
instability and scale up their attacks, prompting a fresh crisis in
Mali, and its neighbours.
