Oppressed
societies do not automatically rebel. Perhaps contrary to intuition,
oppressed populations have a tendency to keep their heads down. Despite
their misery, they continue their increasingly dismal lives, until
something shocks them into action.
The
United States did not automatically rebel against the tyranny of King
George. As the Declaration of Independence tells us, "all experience
has shown, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are
sufferable[.]" And suffer the colonists did, for many years,
complaining and protesting. The Boston Massacre occurred in 1770, and
the Tea Party in 1773, but not until 1776 did the rebellion finally
break out.
If we are so predisposed to long suffering, then why do rebellions occur?
Rebellions
occur when three internal conditions are met, along with at least one
external factor, for a total of four elements. I will list them here,
not necessarily in order of importance.
There
must be a leader, a population of followers, and a defining
moment. These are the three internal factors. There must also be an
external factor. In the American Revolution, that was the king of
France, whose navy tipped the scales at Yorktown, where the British
finally surrendered.
The
leader must have a number of qualities, including charisma, competence,
and courage. When the general public recognizes these qualities, they
will follow that leader to the gates of Hell, but only when the other
conditions are met.
The
second factor, the followers, are already motivated before the leader
appears. The Declaration of Independence describes these
motivations. The description includes, "a long train of abuses and
usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object, [which] evinces a
design to reduce them under absolute despotism ... a history of repeated
injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment
of an absolute tyranny over these states."
The
third condition is the defining moment, a triggering event, that
provides the spark, the incitement, whereby a very large portion of the
aggrieved population becomes abruptly motivated to overcome its fears,
and to take the grave risk that is inherent in all rebellions against an
ensconced power structure. There must be a "shot heard round the
world," a point of no return.
In
the United States of 2021, we have met the first two conditions but not
the third. We have potential leaders, most notably President
Trump. We have the long-suffering population, angry and motivated. We
have not, however, had that one defining moment of final and
irreversible decision to launch a rebellion. Even the violent incident
in the Capitol on January 6, 2021 was not enough.
The
fourth condition, an external one, might well involve communist
China. Whereas Biden and his family view China as their cash cow, other
factions, even some within the Dark State, recognize it as the
dangerous and existential enemy it is. If China invades Taiwan, or cuts
off access to the South China seaways, or is found to be sabotaging our
infrastructure through non-military acts of war (such as hacking the
power grid to shut it down), certain sectors of the establishment may
very well find their hand forced and respond with a military
counterattack, despite any and all objections from the White House.
While
another American Revolution does not seem likely at the present, the
four factors leading to one either already exist or are in the
making. History repeats itself, yes, but always with a twist.
