Tuesday, November 3, 2020

The New Contras’ Insurgence Against Legacy Media Is Only Getting Hotter

 

Article by Ben Domenech and Emily Jashinsky in The Federalist
 

The New Contras’ Insurgence Against Legacy Media Is Only Getting Hotter

 Starved of true intellectual debate by the likes of The New York Times’ op-ed page, Americans are turning to a more interesting and more compelling alternative.

When Glenn Greenwald announced he was departing The Intercept last week, he did it on Twitter and Substack. The infamously troublesome and fearlessly principled writer, who has in more than a decade of journalism earned respect from even his strongest critics, quit the media entity he co-founded out of frustration with an editorial process that wanted to silence him.

Greenwald’s fury expressed on the No. 1 show on cable news the next evening, “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” illustrated how turbulent and bizarre the ideological winds have become. Here was Greenwald, Edward Snowden’s interlocutor, raining lightning bolts on the notoriously hawkish Fox News, speaking to an ex-Weekly Standard writer turned neocon critic, about how his publication — funded by eBay leftist Pierre Omidyar — refused to allow him any criticism of Joe Biden, and instead embraced the opinions of the same American Deep State Greenwald has constantly (and often justifiably) criticized.

Greenwald pointed out that the only article to reference the Hunter Biden story on the site he co-founded did so “very snidely and dismissively to say that no one should pay attention to it because it was Russian disinformation, and it cited a letter from John Brennan, James Clapper, and the rest of the goons from the CIA and the intelligence community asserting it. And worse still, that letter said we have no evidence that Russia is involved in any of this. The Intercept omitted that phrase.”

It might be easy to dismiss Greenwald’s move as just an eccentric journalist making a move — “There he goes off to his room to write that hit song, ‘Alone in My Principles.’” Except Greenwald is not alone. He is now one of an ecosystem of rebellious thinkers who have removed themselves from corporate and non-profit media to strike out on their own, confident that their readers, fans, and even critics will follow them into a new galaxy. There, instead of subscribing to a glossy magazine with Jann Wenner’s terrible five-star reviews of aging Boomer rockstars, you do the equivalent of buying Matt Taibbi a beer every month.

These are the new contrarians — call them the New Contras for short, because the one thing they all have in common is refusing the wokeness that dominates legacy media, and has created a practically religious climate of insufferable identity politics. It is no accident that in the week prior to ejecting himself, Greenwald appeared on the O.G. podcast, “The Joe Rogan Experience,” and with the newest dominant player on the block, Megyn Kelly. Rogan, Kelly, and Carlson represent media players who have moved beyond the traditional limits of cable and truly control their own product output — and in doing so, command more relevance than any of the newsreaders who operate within the world of the past.

In researching this story over the course of two months, we talked with dozens of members of this new cohort. Why they are embarking on this new — and simultaneously very old — approach to media is fascinating and jarring.

They show enormous potential in the market forces of small online transactions to support guerilla media efforts, while also anticipating a media landscape in which legacy institutions must inevitably strike back against their rebellious new competitors. Nearly all of them anticipate an organized attempt by Big Tech to crush what they’re doing. But they are perhaps the only individuals employed within media today who seem genuinely happy about the choices they’ve made — which have proved more profitable, more fulfilling, and more influential than the decrepit institutions they used to inhabit.

The Emperor Has No Clothes

The Baby Boomer generation’s approach to being a “thought leader” was, as is typical for them, far more structured and inorganic than their lackadaisical nature might suggest. You needed a syndicated column in the papers, a paid commentary gig on a television program, a book or at least the semblance of a running book project (repurposing your thesis was acceptable but not ideal), and of course a sinecure at a major think tank, which primarily served as a place you could expense your meals and source fresh interns every summer for research and light harassment.

Some of the New Contras have a few aspects of these: books, sinecures, paid gigs. But the vast majority do not. They reject the Boomer expectations for success and relevance, and offer their readers and listeners a different experience: more raw, more authentic, and more immediate. Their reactions don’t run through the multilayer filters of legacy media, something that will inevitably lead to attacks.

But then again, we’re talking about legacy media like The New York Times — a paper that put a Twitter-inspired rumor that the president of the United States was standing in front of a green screen in a video on their front page, in an article bylined by two of their most respected journalists, then disappeared it without ever acknowledging the change.

The most dangerous thing the New Contras are willing to say is: The Emperor Has No Clothes.

And they say it regardless of the emperor. Most of the members of this cohort are no fans of Donald Trump, and their attitude toward Joe Biden wavers between grudging acceptance and an eyeroll emoji. The message they have to their listeners is longer-term than election cycles, and it represents in its fundamental form a liberalism of thought. They are in general anti-Marxist, anti-critical race theory, and anti-identity politics. And they see within the rise of this Great Awokening a real threat to the country.

Saagar Enjeti, the co-host of “Rising,” housed within the popular D.C. news organization The Hill, is a perfect example of this trend. “Rising” looks like a traditional morning show, but it isn’t. Enjeti is a critic of the traditional Zombie-Reagan Republicans, his co-host Krystal Ball a critic of Clintonian corporatist Democrats, and their guests run the gamut. Their show dominates on YouTube, and Rogan has sung their praises repeatedly — for good reason, as it presents a version of politics much closer to the truth than the long-in-tooth, red-team, blue-team cable shows.

“There’s actually a new hybrid model, which is evolving, which is kind of going to take the best parts of independence and the best part of institutions,” Enjeti said. “There’s a massive audience obviously, the Joe Rogan audience, and so many more, of disaffected people who are generally Gen X, younger or older millennials, who still care a lot about the news, and they still care a lot about politics. But they just despise the contemporary discourse that we understand here in D.C.”

That discourse has been dominated by many factions that have no real base in the country as a whole, particularly on foreign policy. Enjeti would prefer a more honest discourse that laid bare creators’ beliefs instead of adopting a faux balanced attitude.

“The highest readership in American history was whenever we had a burgeoning massive partisan news. That’s actually how most people got their news, when we had huge levels of literacy, and we even had huge levels of news consumption, of voter participation,” Enjeti said, criticizing the “fetishization of so-called objectivity journalism.”

“Places like the New York Times and the Washington Post and the mainstream media, which are carrying over their old veil of objectivity … but they have to post crazy critical race theory, because that’s what their upper-middle-class white subscribers want to hear,” Enjeti said. “And that’s fine, it’s OK. Seriously. The part that bothers me is that they then claimed to be the arbiter of truth and the paper of record in the United States.”

The vast majority of “Rising” viewers are young, below the age of 30. They’re also the cohort most likely to turn to YouTube instead of cable news.

“I really hate doing cable,” Enjeti said. “I just hated doing these three-and-a-half-minute hits on a four-person panel. I always use this as an example: I was on a panel once about nationalism. I literally got to speak for like a minute and a half. And you just can’t talk about an American nationalist project in a minute and a half. You just can’t. And why should I, in the age of Joe Rogan? Why should I, in this age of three-hour media?”

Three-hour media? What a ludicrous concept. Who would listen to three hours of anything, especially if it’s just two people sitting at a table — a comedian actor and fighting commentator on one side and an eclectic guest on the other? But people do, because they have more capacity for discussion than legacy media think they do.

“This is not just a cultural trend,” Katie Herzog declares. “This is not just a response to the thread of cancellation and a way to make yourself uncancellable. … It’s also a response to market forces.”

One of the most brilliant members of this new media ecosystem, Herzog has an innate sense for dry comedy and dirty jokes. Formerly a columnist for Seattle magazine The Stranger, she came under fire for various violations of transgender speech controls. With a round of layoffs, she embarked on a podcast venture called “Blocked and Reported” with the disturbingly tall Brooklyn journalist Jesse Singal. What she’ll tell you, on the record, is that this was the best professional move of her life: She’s making more than twice as much doing a podcast as she did at The Stranger.

“In some ways, it’s going back to an old system where it’s a patronage system,” Herzog said.

As American as fake boobs, shower beer, and fried chicken biscuits, the newsletter approach has its basis in the pamphleteers of yore as well as the openly political journalism of the founding age. For Tom Paine, Thomas Jefferson, and Alexander Hamilton, the idea that members of the media would not wear their views on their sleeves was absurd.

The New Contras have no such designs on a false sense of detachment. If you listen to Herzog’s podcast, you won’t just understand her opinion on political and trending topics, you’ll get it on everything from the weather of the Pacific Northwest to her sarcastic frustration as a lesbian married to a bisexual (“Tacos or hot dogs, just pick one”).

This authenticity also speaks to the closer bond between the patron and the creator. Legacy media miscalculated in thinking we wanted the pictures of the latest pop star and would settle for eight pages of Taibbi writing about Wall Street. It turned out many of us wanted Taibbi and didn’t really care about the soon-to-be-forgotten pop star.

“The amount of content you get for a Rolling Stone subscription versus Matt Taibbi’s newsletter, it’s not actually a good value compared to the old model,” Herzog said. But it is if what you care about is that content, not the glossy images.

Herzog worries about the attention places like Substack and Patreon will get in the next year for housing so many of the new contrarians. What about the potential of an alternative, funded by a sympathetic person from the tech world?

“Are you just making a new institution that will be vulnerable to attack because it will be funded probably through VC money like everything else?” Herzog said. “If people are giving us money and I say something that they disagree with, then there is that sort of danger, am I going to stop doing whatever because I’m afraid of pissing people off?”

Herzog has learned there is far less of a demand for paywalled content than you might expect — many people just back writers and thinkers because they like them, not because they want more material.

“Some number of people will support your work because they want the extra stuff, they want the bonus content,” Herzog said. “But there is probably an equal number of people who will never actually access the bonus content. They just want to give you money.”

Michael Malice, a New York-based author, intellectual, provocateur, and professional Twitter troll, asks for money all the time. A frequent guest on some of the most prominent podcasts, he asks for it to make him do things that he would never want to do, such as read Kamala Harris’s autobiography.

“If I told you 50 years ago, this was the situation — because you’ve got a bookshelf at the store, there’s room for 30 books, right? So you got to have to pick the top 30. It would make sense to pick those 30 books from people who work for outlets who have a history of producing things of value,” Malice said. “Now, bookshelves are infinite. There is literally no limit to the amount of books that you could sell at Amazon.”

The point is that the barriers of old media don’t make sense anymore. Articles shouldn’t be constricted to artificial limits, any more than discussions. Opinions that make you feel unsafe belong in the public square as much as ones that stroke your sensibilities.

“There is an enormous cultural impetus among fans to support independent creators. On a daily basis, people throw me five bucks here, five bucks there, like tipping a waiter, whatever, because they see if you’re doing your loan, if you are pushing for values that they like, maybe they have a job, maybe they have family, they’re not positioned to do it, you’re not obligated to, but it is the right thing to do. My malice.locals.com pays for my rent,” Malice said, referring to a platform begun by popular podcaster Dave Rubin.

Malice’s advice for the wannabe in this space is straightforward: “First, find a podcast that you hate,” Malice said. “This is how I became an author. Find a podcast that you hate and reverse engineer what they’re doing wrong. If you are avoiding mistakes, you’re already way ahead of the pack, number one. Two, have something original to say or say something unoriginal in an original way.”

Be Brave, Call Bullshit

Shadi Hamid is one of the most interesting thinkers of his generation. Of those we talked to, he is the most traditionally vetted — author of multiple books, Oxford and Georgetown, sinecure at Brookings — yet he longs for the rebel life. Hamid is the sort of person The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg begs to write, the pieces he wishes he was allowed to by his insanely woke staff.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily that people like myself … are turning our backs on traditional media outlets. But I think the bigger issue is that it would be very hard for The New York Times to hire me,” Hamid said.

And why is that? Because Hamid rejects the basic agenda of the Great Awokening. Identity politics and critical race theory are frequent targets for criticism, and he repeatedly makes an effort to prod traditional, utterly secular journalists to understand the importance of religion in Americans’ lives.

“If you’re an aspiring reporter in the New York Times and you’re still kind of relatively early on in your career, covering this stuff and actually showing that it’s more complicated on the ground, you have to start watching your back because everyone knows the controversy that happened with the Tom Cotton stuff and Bari Weiss,” Hamid said. “There are staff members who are keeping an eye out for people who ‘incorrectly’ contextualize the news.”

“It reminds me a little bit at least of how people suppress their true beliefs in Middle Eastern contexts where I’ve spent a lot of time,” Hamid said. “This sense that you have to hide who you are, because if you say what you truly believe, there’ll be consequences.”

Hamid has begun a podcast and newsletter project, called “Wisdom of Crowds,” with colleague Damir Marusic, which he hopes will cut through this dominant trend.

“This is blogging but refashioned in a different format. But it essentially serves a similar purpose as what was going on in the early and mid-2000s,” Hamid said. “…I think a lot of us long for that period. I remember I used to love reading blogs. I had a whole blog roll, and that was how you started your day. … And now you can’t even imagine that scenario of [Andrew] Sullivan and [Ta-Nehisi] Coates engaging with each other like they used to.”

For Hamid, a key aspect of the appeal of this new media genre is the ability to both be more open and to wrestle with views that make a large number of people uncomfortable, debating questions some think shouldn’t even be allowed in the public square.

“The protests have been a key turning point because I think that’s when it hit a lot of us that something had gone fundamentally wrong in the way we talk about big questions,” Hamid said, “and that people were suppressing what they believed to be true because of a fear of the mob.”

Kmele Foster, a nattily attired mercurial intellectual who loves setting conceptual bonfires and stargazing, is the co-founder of FreeThink, a media company that produces documentaries, and co-host of “The Fifth Column,” a podcast that is impossible to miss if you want to monitor this rising media phenomenon.

“People who are funny and insightful succeed in this space. People who push into the area where there is room to be surprised and shocked, but you can play within that world of outrage, and the closer to the line you get, the funnier it is,” Foster said. “The stated goals of the illiberals is a safe space for everyone — the same rules essentially a tinpot dictator would use — to shut down debate whenever it offends anyone.”

In “The Fifth Column” Patreon episodes — the ones that don’t descend into Vice reporter Michael Moynihan’s drunken impressions of Massholes and Matt Welch’s invocations of Gen X Euro punk incidents — readers deluge the hosts with messages about their experiences in wokeness. From mandatory seminars to HR incidents, it’s clear their listeners view just discussing these matters of race and politics as unacceptable for public discourse.

Foster’s response to this is simple: Be brave, call bullshit.

“The feedback our listeners share is that they feel uncomfortable. They let on that their politics or their beliefs are less popular in one setting and they fear the ramifications,” Foster said. “This is a new religion — the subjugation of the non-believer, the need to control and to crush those who will not be controlled.”

When the Tastemakers Have Bad Taste

Even for those who don’t primarily play in politics, the trends toward creating your own self-sufficient platform are apparent. Andrew Schulz is perhaps the most innovative comedic voice in this regard. When executives didn’t get the appeal of his confrontational brand of comedy, Schulz took to YouTube, pulling clips from shows and creating an approach designed to make viewers feel like they were present in the room.

“The tastemakers didn’t have good taste,” Schulz said.

The popularity of Schulz’s work fed into the success of his “Flagrant 2” podcast, with co-host comedian Akaash Singh and a cast of hilarious characters with “flagrant takes” on the news of the moment — everything is on the table: race, sex, politics, and more. And their Patreon supporters — the “asshole army,” as they call them — are eager for it.

“There was a frustration that we both had: We are funnier than where our careers are,” Singh said. “Critics have a job to keep. They are a gatekeeper with the old frame. They could take a chance on us, but they don’t want to lose that job.”

“Comedy was in a really bad place recently, regarding MeToo and political correctness. I feel that if it is successful, it will prove this comedy has a marketplace,” Schulz said. “All these corporations act all woke, but what they really want is the dollar.”

“Financial freedom is key. The Patreon is financial freedom is there whenever the cancel crowd comes for us, and we know we can resist the crowd when they come for us,” Singh said. “We don’t want to have to dilute what we do.” 

Fears of the New Contras

Of course, that dilution might be impossible to avoid. Nearly everyone we spoke to for this article brought up an expectation that inevitably, they will be silenced. Perhaps borne out of experience in the world of traditional publications, the New Contras expect that inevitably, Google will demonetize their YouTube videos — as it has done regularly with the likes of Young Turk-turned-left-critic Dave Rubin — and that eventually their Substack and Patreon existence could become too controversial.

“That’s my fear, [about] the sustainability of this model. At some point are people going to say: ‘I just can’t give $60 a year to 14 different creators,’” Herzog said. “Then the other fear is that this is going to just create ever-narrower media bubbles. Because like the Tom Cotton column in The Times — I don’t like Tom Cotton, I didn’t agree with the piece — however, I’m glad that the New York Times published it because it forced the New York Times reader to, for a second, grapple with this idea. … That won’t happen if everybody is in their own little paid silo.”

In all likelihood, that’s the frame traditional media will take when they inevitably attack these newsletter authors as a creeping menace: Substack silos where dangerous misinformation grows and thrives, and a wilderness of error that leads people down dark paths that must be blocked before they do more damage.

The Boomer Model Is Dead

With the exception of Malice and Enjeti, most of these contrarian voices can be identified as anti-Trump. Unlike most of the centrist-liberal cohort, this has not prevented them from being interesting. For conservatives, the disruption of the Boomer media model is happening as well, but much more slowly. Sohrab Ahmari, arguably the most influential millennial voice in conservative media, who writes and curates voices at The New York Post, believes the danger of fracture is real but puts that reality at the foot of old media.

“There is a risk of ever more fracturing,” Ahmari said. “But if that’s the case, it’s the big boys who bear the blame, because they’ve become ever more niche and devoted to aggressive ideologies and out of touch with the actual American mainstream.”

Contrarianism is shaking up the right to a lesser degree than it is the country, in part because it would be so comforting to revert to a natural state, where think tanks, radio hosts, and the Jonah Goldbergs of the world go back to their cozy sinecures as domesticated opponents of the dominant leftist agenda.

Ryan Williams, the young think tank head of the Claremont Institute — a California-based organization of Harry Jaffa Straussians whose influence has exploded in the Trump era — believes the relatively ancient nature of the think tank model cannot adapt to the moment.

“We are still in the midst of the greatest intergenerational wealth transfer in the history of the world,” Williams said. “The Boomers continue to fund and maintain these institutions regardless of their relevance.”

“The think tanks are able in their public communications to their huge group of smallish donors and to their major donors sending the message that they are on top of the pressing issues of the day, such as these identity politics issues. Donor marketing operation is fairly good at taking small aspects and claiming they’re actually doing this stuff,” Williams said.

Williams compares how little think tanks have actually accomplished for reforming higher education with the work of Reason’s Robby Soave, the intrepid libertarian reporter who has been a thorn in the side of Title IX kangaroo courts and academic foolishness of all varieties.

“The Robby Soaves of the world don’t have immediate access to sources of funding. The donor world wants to support people like him, but there’s not a direct line of access — there’s a gatekeeper aspect that matters a great deal. They have no access to this network of funders,” Williams said. “And a lot of these donors have been giving to these places for decades. It’s a mix of affinity and sunk costs. Now donors have seen that a lot of places are fundraising operations masquerading as think tanks, and that’s resulting in a lot of reconsiderations.”

Spencer Klavan, an associate editor at Claremont and host of the “Young Heretics” podcast, thinks these institutions will have to adapt to a new media reality where relevance isn’t determined by your sinecure.

“Over time, institutional centers today will crumble, but we need to set up our own in order to support people who are willing to reconsider our presuppositions, including whether Ibram X. Kendi is a harmless academic or Robin DiAngelo is a ridiculous person,” Klavan said. “The onus can’t all be on the talent to make this a sustainable revolution.”

“Boomer institutions that can be persuaded should be sharing their resources and supporting these new voices. This is not a safe era. Things are so terribly unsettled, you could pour your money into these old institutions and they would fail,” Klavan said. “The good answer has not been raised up yet. Why doesn’t Tim Pool have more support? Why doesn’t Andy Ngo? So many people are out there doing incredible work. There are no other reporters in America! Why are institutions afraid to support them?”

The Cato Institute’s Ilya Shapiro represents one example of a shift in the way younger intellectuals make their mark in an era of media disruption. A legal scholar at a libertarian think tank is not typically someone you would expect to be bouncing from podcast to social media engagement to a hearing on Capitol Hill, but that’s the new model.

“The democratization and the lowering of barriers of entry to influence making media is critical here,” Shapiro said. “Before the internet, you needed to have some form of institutional support. No one would read your white paper, no congressman would meet with you, you couldn’t enter the media so easily. Now you can do all those things.”

At Cato, Emily Ekins’s work as a pollster focuses on tracking the phenomena of cancellation and fear as such trends dominate the minds not just of those engaged in media creation, but normal citizens as well.

“Humans aren’t built to be treated like they are by the internet. Research says you can tell a lot more about people’s politics by the news they consume than by what they tell you in a survey. People consume news more for entertainment value rather than something informative. Who they’re listening to, who they’re willing to pay five bucks to in order to read their stuff, says a lot about who they value and where their heart lies,” Ekins said. “The people who espouse views that are deemed ‘unacceptable’ — who says they’re unacceptable? The market doesn’t. The company has to fire these people because they’re unacceptable to the marketplace.”

“Most people don’t actually really want to fire people for their ideas,” Ekins said. “But some people aren’t like that. They want to punish their political opponents, and they are the loudest ones. This tiny, far-left end of the political spectrum — they believe they own everything and they own the debate.”

What might be developing is a media landscape that allows for a greater depth of engagement, but also requires more work from consumers. Knowing which podcasts to subscribe to, whose newsletter is worth the dime, and who will bring you the knowledge you won’t find in traditional sources takes effort. But a sizable portion of Americans want to do exactly that. Starved of true intellectual debate by the likes of The New York Times’ op-ed page, they are turning to a more interesting and more compelling alternative.

“After 2016, it seemed like the media class should have realized in that moment, after the results of the election, that echo chambers and media silos are a really big problem,” Herzog said. “Half of the country was just so shocked by the results of the election that my response to that was to really go out of my way and start to engage conservatives and just follow conservatives and read conservatives … something I’d never done before, because I realized that if you were flabbergasted by this result, then you don’t know what’s going on in the country.”

That’s what these consumers want to know, and so long as the Boomer model fails to answer it, they’ll be following Homer Simpson’s lead.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/03/the-new-contras-insurgence-against-legacy-media-is-only-getting-hotter/


 


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Calif. Family home engulfed in wildfire, receive online hate for being Trump supporters

 

OAN Newsroom
UPDATED 10:45 AM PT – Monday, November 2, 2020

A California family received social media backlash after their house burned down because they support President Trump. One America’s Kyarra Harris has the story.

 


 

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Seeing Past The Narratives – Two Election Points to Remember

There is a great deal of manipulation and falsehood in media presentation of the 2020 election. These lies and false constructs generate a great deal of anxiety. That said, there are two specific approaches by the narrative engineers that deserve a strong reminder.

♦The first purposeful approach media use to create and embed their false assumptions is a slight of hand that few notice, and it can create anxiety.  In normal term-two election cycles the baseline for media analysis should be the incumbent electoral win in term one.

The accurate baseline should be what states the incumbent (Trump) won in the prior 2016 election.  From that position the analysis should then discuss what states the challenger (Biden) needs to take in order to win.  The reason is simple, the incumbent already has a track record -so the assumption should be on retention of the previous outcome. However, with President Trump the media doesn’t do this.

The media now position President Trump’s opposition Joe Biden as if he has already won states and Trump needs to win them back. Essentially they flip the baseline to build upon their skewed and false polling narratives.  They never did this with any prior elections.

In Obama’s 2012 term-two race he was assumed to have support in all the states he won in 2008, and Mitt Romney had to overcome states Obama was ‘holding’.  

However, in this 2020 term-two race the media analysis doesn’t start out by giving President Trump his previous victories.  This makes it easier for them to falsely assert a more difficult path to victory.

Watch for this in all media analysis of the race and you will see exactly what they are doing.  The approach is subtle, and the purpose is psychological.

♦ The next issue to remind yourself about is “Exit Polling.

All exit polling is pushed by media in their effort to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.   The election year media polling is already skewed with manipulated outcomes; they do the same thing with the exit polling, only they do it on election day in rapid succession.

Again, just a brief reminder:… if the media are willing to set up planted audience members to the benefit of Joe Biden (they have); and if the media are willingly and purposefully going to manipulate debate moderators, debate questions and non-questions, and town-hall audience scripts to undermine President Trump (again, they have); then what do you think those same media outlets are doing with their polling?

Put another way: If the media are willing to create intentionally false impressions for broadcast what are they doing with the polling they are paying for?

The same manipulative approach happens with “exit polling.”

As we saw in 2016 the exit polling was exactly the opposite of the election result.  At 5:00pm Eastern the media were proclaiming Hillary Clinton the clear winner based on their “exit polls.”  The national polling places were not even closed yet.

For hours this narrative was pushed despite central timezone and west coast still voting.  Additionally, despite warnings those media pronouncements created a tremendous amount of anxiety amid Trump supporters.  You will remember by 9pm the actual results started coming in and they showed something entirely different.  The exact opposite of the exit polling.

The media never explained why their “exit polling” was so wrong; they just moved on to the attack and resistance approach against President-Elect Trump.

They didn’t explain the difference because media did not make mistakes with exit polls, or carry the wrong approach toward gathering the outcomes.  The media FABRICATED the content of the exit polls, and they did so with specific and purposeful intent.

Exit polls are entirely manufactured to give the election analysts a narrative for broadcast.  That is their only purpose.  Ignore MSM Exit Polling !

Trump: Always Be Closing

Trump will win four more years and the big media 
polling industry could be all but finished.


You need take only one glance at the swarming Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend to consider that something is not right with this election.

Almost 60,000 at that rally alone. Pro-Trump caravans zigzagging across the highways. The weekend, even in pockets of cerulean blue California, a festival of Trump.

Yet, experts insist the president is set to lose handily on Tuesday. Something doesn’t chime with the narrative.

The wonks are partially right: crowd sizes and rallies, caravans and carnival do not necessarily translate to all-important votes.

But they are forgetting a few things. For all the intricacy and sophistication an election model may possess, it doesn’t know people. It doesn’t account for history. No model, not in my lifetime, will ever come close to doing so.

Consider this: On the admittedly fun swing-state generator at FiveThirtyEight, Joe Biden’s odds are around 90 percent. Hand Florida over to President Trump, and Biden is still strongly favored with 69 chances in 100.

Yet Florida has picked the winner in every presidential election except one since 1964. Without Ross Perot in 1992, Florida’s record would be unblemished.

More remarkable than Florida is Ohio. The Buckeye state has backed the loser once since 1944, picking with the winner every time since 1972.

On the FiveThirtyEight generator, Joe Biden can lose both Florida and Ohio, and still enjoy a 59 percent chance of winning the presidency—his current odds with bookmakers.

I don’t pretend to know what goes into these models. But I do know this scenario makes little sense to the human brain. For Joe Biden to lose both Florida and Ohio, and yet still capture the White House is highly unlikely. It’s never been done before.

According to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, and the Democratic media in his religious devotion, this scenario is perfectly plausible.

Current polling, even at the Washington Post, finds Trump edging ahead in Florida with a two-point gap, which that newspaper calls “roughly even” unless Biden is winning. That same poll finds a margin-of-error tie in Pennsylvania.

The Trafalgar Group has Trump winning Ohio by five points. The RealClearPolitics average has Trump leading in Ohio, and within one point in Florida.

Which brings me to that Iowa poll. The final Des Moines Register/Selzer survey finds President Trump leading Joe Biden by 48 percent to 41 percent. In September’s poll, the candidates were locked at 47 percent each.

If accurate, that poll portends a race which looks nothing like the narrative, with late-breakers, independents, and women shifting toward Trump.

After a mild breakdown, election forecasters shook it off. “We’ve run our presidential forecast 38 times since yesterday morning and at no point have Biden’s odds been lower than 88.8 percent or higher than 89.8 percent,” Nate Silver said Sunday. “Trump can win but polls that people are getting very excited about/mad at/etc. aren’t really changing the picture much.”

Of course. But what if that poll presents the new normal of this race? The answer: models stuffed with earlier snapshots are worthless.

Indeed, the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Politics and Policy (TIPP) presidential election tracking poll seems to agree, on Monday finding just three points between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, down from last week’s consistent five-point gap.

President Trump now leads with independents by two points, breaking Biden’s 20-day streak, and has widened his advantage with rural voters and men. Biden’s 68-point lead with black voters is far short of Hillary Clinton’s 85-point gap in 2016.

Last week, at Rasmussen the black Trump vote averaged 30 percent. On Monday, that settled to 26 percent, while 44 percent of non-white likely voters say they’re voting for Trump.

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll on Monday found President Trump slashing Joe Biden’s three-point lead to one point with Biden leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

Last week, the pair swapped places almost daily, sharing identical margins and leads.

The same poll on the Monday before 2016’s election found Hillary Clinton held a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Trump.

Biden was 12 points ahead according to that same metric four weeks ago.

President Trump now leads with independents by two points, breaking Biden’s 20-day streak, and has widened his advantage with rural voters and men. Biden’s 68-point lead with black voters is far short of Hillary Clinton’s 85-point gap in 2016.

Last week, at Rasmussen the black Trump vote averaged 30 percent. On Monday, that settled to 26 percent, while 44 percent of non-white likely voters say they’re voting for Trump.

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll on Monday found President Trump slashing Joe Biden’s three-point lead to one point with Biden leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

Last week, the pair swapped places almost daily, sharing identical margins and leads.

The same poll on the Monday before 2016’s election found Hillary Clinton held a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Trump.

Biden was 12 points ahead according to that same metric four weeks ago.

President Trump’s approval rating at Rasmussen climbed to 52 percent, two points higher than President Obama in 2012.

Across the figures, President Trump’s approval rating is around the ballpark for reelected incumbents and some eight points higher than losing incumbent presidents.

George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 with 48 percent job approval. The elder George Bush and Jimmy Carter both lost with approval ratings much below 40 percent.

The Democracy Institute finds Trump’s approval rating at 52 percent, chiming with Rasmussen and Gallup who found 46 percent of Americans approve of the president. 

Meanwhile, Trafalgar finds President Trump has increased his lead in Pennsylvania from under one percent to two percent.

Even Nate Silver admits Joe Biden would be the “underdog” without Pennsylvania. Judging by that Butler crowd alone—as unscientific as that may be—Biden can’t be feeling too confident about taking the Keystone State from Trump.

It might not be in vogue, but my old-fashioned brain tells me Joe Biden cannot win without Florida and Ohio, and Trump will win around 320 electoral college votes and four more years.

And the big media polling industry could be all but finished.


The Democrats’ Grand Delusion

Joe Biden is wrong as usual. Democrats do not choose truth over lies or fact over fiction. They fool only themselves.


The Steele dossier, an infamous series of memos that alleged Donald Trump’s presidential campaign colluded with the Russians to rig the 2016 election, is the single most influential piece of fabricated political propaganda in American history.

The document is so bad that even the author has attempted to distance himself from its shoddy contents; Christopher Steele, despite being portrayed by the news media as a reliable former British spy, was in fact an untrustworthy partisan operative paid by the Democrats to concoct bogus claims against Donald Trump.

Nothing in the Steele dossier—from outlandish stories about peeing Muscovite prostitutes to secret trips to Prague—is true. Further, numerous investigations have concluded that no, the Trump campaign was not in cahoots with the Kremlin to defeat Hillary Clinton. As it turns out, Steele, not Donald Trump nor anyone in his orbit, was the guy tied to Vladimir Putin’s pals.

But none of these facts stops the overwhelming majority of Democrats from believing the exact opposite. According to an April 2020 poll, 77 percent of Democrats still think the dossier is legitimate and not mere campaign opposition research, which it was. 

By extension, Democrats still believe that Team Trump worked with the Kremlin to help elect the president of the United States in 2016. Keep in mind, the survey was taken one year after Robert Mueller issued his final report and testified to Congress that his two-year, multimillion-dollar probe into Trump-Russia collusion came up empty.

Think about that for a moment. Three out of four Democrats believe a purely fictional document, one that most of them probably haven’t ever bothered to read on their own, simply because it said bad things about Donald Trump. It’s akin to believing in the Tooth Fairy. Yet in the face of irrefutable evidence, most Democrats refuse to concede they were wrong, that they were duped and fooled, that they were intentionally misled by MSNBC and the Washington Post.

How can this be? After all, we deplorables are admonished, the Democratic Party is populated by all the smart people, the overly-educated, the “experts,” our Betters With Letters. Democrats are the party of science! As Joe Biden mindlessly regurgitates on the campaign trail, Democrats believe in “truth over lies, science over fiction.”

What a total joke.

Democrats, in reality, are the party of grand delusion. No tale is too wild, no anonymous accusation is too far-fetched to warrant a modicum of healthy skepticism. QAnon has nothing on these political automatons; programmed daily with party-approved talking points, rank-and-file Democrats dutifully recite the conspiracy du jour with just the right amount of humanlike fear and fury.

Trump is a Russian stooge? Absolutely! Brett Kavanaugh participated in gang rape chains in college? Of course! The vice president authored an anonymous column and best-selling book warning America about the threat posed by his running mate? No doubt!

OK, maybe it wasn’t Pence but it definitely was Kellyanne Conway or John Kelly or Melania Trump for sure.

Pro-life high schoolers from Kentucky disrepected a Native American elder? How dare they! Jussie Smollett was attacked on lower Wacker Drive by MAGAts! Bubba Wallace found a noose! But Hunter Biden’s laptop absolutely is Russian disinformation!

The list goes on and on. Even when confronted with facts or a straight-up admittance of the hoax by the allegedly aggrieved victim, Democratic Party zombies continue to justify their embarrassing groupthink with solemn lamentations that the fabricated incident represents something evil about America, or at the very least, about Donald Trump.

Democrats now believe—or at least want others to believe—that cities are preparing for violence and unrest because President Trump, the story goes, won’t concede the White House even if he loses. CNN’s Wolf Blitzer confessed he was “so sad” to see D.C.-based stores boarding up windows and doors over the weekend. “I never thought I would see so many buildings here in the nation’s capital boarded-up on the eve of a presidential election in anticipation of possible unrest.”

The theme was set. “When conservatives celebrated Trump’s election 4 years ago, did they know that in 2020 we would board up shops, prepare for riots and the arrival of militias, game out ways he might steal the election, protest aggressive vote suppression?” tweeted NeverTrumper Anne Applebaum on November 1. “This is what he has done to America.”

New Yorker columnist Susan Glasser warned that cities preparing for post-election strife is a “purposeful strategy of the president of the United States” because Trump has “attacked the legitimacy of our institutions of American democracy.”

Once more, Democrats and the media ask us to ignore what we see with our own eyes and instead accept their latest Trump-hating fable. Never mind that Democratic mayors and governors have allowed lawless thugs to repeatedly destroy downtown stores over the past several months to honor George Floyd or whatnot. Ignore the violence and mayhem unleashed with impunity by Anitfa and Black Lives Matter.

No, it’s Donald Trump’s fault the mobs will once again smash windows and steal pricey handbags from boutique mannequins.

Preposterous.

But of course, like everything from the party of delusion, this latest outrage is a ruse to cover up reality. For months, Democrats and NeverTrump have been war-gaming different election outcomes to ready their troops for war. The plan includes the deployment of millions of “pro-Biden” protesters while “all the votes are counted.”

Participants of the Transition Integrity Project, with financial backing from some of the richest people in the world, will call for widespread protests, work stoppages, and Big Tech censorship until Joe Biden is installed in the White House. Even if the president wins reelection, the insurrectionists won’t yield until political leaders of both parties agree to long-desired changes to the Constitution. After stinging losses in 2000 and 2016, defeated Democrats have no intention of allowing history to repeat itself this year.

Joe Biden is wrong, as usual. Democrats do not choose truth over lies or fact over fiction. To the contrary, Democrats are the masters of delusion. As long as Donald Trump is the villain, any fictional script, including a laughable dossier, is considered legitimate.

They fool only themselves.