Part of what Mrs. Pelosi — sometimes known as the Marie “Let Them Eat $16 Ice Cream” Antoinette of Congress — is up against is the shellacking Democrats took in House races across the country, including gaining control of four of the House seats Democrats flipped in California in 2018. Those gains have many a prognosticator (tread cautiously because they’ve been mostly wrong for a few years now) predicting the GOP will win back the House in 2022.
The question is: if that happens, will Nancy Pelosi be the one handing back the gavel?
As mentioned, Pelosi’s party on the Hill expects her to retain her seat, and no one has thus far offered to challenge her. But most voters — 56 percent of them — think she should hand over the gavel now. Only 31 percent of all voters think she should sit tight behind her mask at the head of the House table for the next few years.
She fares a bit better with Democrat voters, but those are waning.
[S]elf-identified Democrats say the first woman House speaker should stay on by a 20-point margin, 53 percent to 33 percent.
The election of the speaker is one of the first tasks for the House when it reconvenes on Jan. 3, but the shrunken Democratic majority — Republicans’ net gain in November currently stands at 10 seats and could swell to a dozen, depending on the disposition of two still-uncalled races — has threatened Pelosi’s position.
When Democrats assumed control of the House two years ago, 15 Democratic members defected from Pelosi, choosing another individual or voting “present” during the speakership vote. Of those, 10 are returning members of the Democratic caucus, and Pelosi will only be able to lose a handful of votes to clinch the speakership this time, depending on how many members show up.