Shy Trump,
Trump Dems and
the Blue State That Might Flip
MSM is pitching a lot of polls that might suggest that Joe Biden was ahead. You even have a CNN poll claiming that Biden was up 16 points.
But even Biden himself poo pooed that poll and said don’t be taken in by that, get out and vote.
Which means that Biden knows that that’s nonsense, and it’s much closer.
As I previously wrote, Biden wouldn’t be sending folks to Nevada and New Hampshire if he wasn’t seeing things that indicated a problem in those two states which previously were thought to be sure blue in his corner. Biden wouldn’t be suddenly activating people on the ground to go out and knock on doors in ‘battleground states’ if he didn’t think he desperately needed to do it, after doing nothing no reaching out to voters on the ground in person since March.
The MSM polls often have some major flaws: oversampling of Democrats, failure to account for the
shy Trump vote and often using registered voters rather than likely voters.
There are a few things that show why Biden may be justifiably panicking, as Townhall observes.
First, the fact that young people are not going to be coming out in greater numbers according to a Hill-Harris poll. Every presidential election they pitch to the young and every time, they show they don’t come out.
The young tend skew left. But the left is not particularly enthusiastic about Joe Biden.
Second, according to Zogby, Trump’s approval is up over 51%.
That’s significant because as Gallup notes, historically, “all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost.”
Poll Watch also did an interview with Patrick Basham about the Democracy Institute poll, which showed likely voters had Trump leading nationally and which confirmed the “shy Trump vote.”
How big is that “shy Trump vote?” It’s of course hard to say. But Democracy Institute thinks it is even a bigger number than it was the first time, even indicating the shy vote in Maryland in Kim Klacik’s race. That should really worry worry Democrats and that may be part of what is worrying Biden.
Basham explains why Trump suddenly has a chance in New Hampshire.
That’s why Biden rushed people to New Hampshire.
Biden blinked on taking out Osama, but had no problem sending Americans off to endless wars. Trump on the other hand, didn’t blink when he needed to act, taking out Qassem Soleimani and Abu Bakr al Baghdadi but he hasn’t started new wars.
Basham is confident about Trump taking Florida, perhaps the most critical battleground state.
Also don’t assume that a Democratic registration means they’re voting for Biden.
Arizona, which some worried might be flipping blue, isn’t, according to PollWatch.
We’ll find out soon, but let’s hope it’s a completely slam dunk victory to prevent any effort to try to take it away in the courts or any funny business with mail in voting.
