Signs of political collapse in Iran
Khamenei and the inevitable risk
The disqualification of 90 incumbent members of parliament (Majlis) for the next parliamentary elections to be held on February 22 in Iran indicates the intention of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to consolidate his regime so he can thwart the crises that have been plaguing it.
The disqualified parliamentarians belong to groups other than Khamenei's inner circle and were disqualified by the unelected Guardian Council, which is entirely and exclusively under the direct control of Khamenei. The supreme leader, however, knows better than anyone else what kind of risks such purging of current M.P.s and other candidates poses.
But what other option is left for Iran's religious dictatorship? In a country rich in natural resources, where more than two thirds of the population is living below the poverty line, unemployment is raging among the younger generation, especially the most educated, who cry freedom and democracy and a decent life, reflected in the November uprisings, when that segment of the population took the streets against fascism.
Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian regime president, has presented his next year's budget, which is far from practical. Iran's oil exports have suffered significant setbacks since the imposition of United States sanctions. The budget is based on the daily export of 1 million barrels of oil, which is undoubtedly far-fetched.
After killing more than 1,500 people and incarcerating 12,000 more during the last November's uprisings, and at a time when the ruling clerics are facing a deep legitimacy crisis, they can hang on to power only by resorting to sheer repression.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime's main force for imposing the repression in the country, is facing defections due to increased isolation after the events of the last few months.
During the uprising last November, a popular outcry in January over the downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane, slogans chanted by people targeted Khamenei. The elimination of Qassem Soleimani, among the regime's most powerful figures, also struck an irreparable blow to the regime.
The supreme leader, under such circumstances, has to consolidate his position.
The regime's infighting and rivalries
Suffice it to say that resorting to the policy of eliminating the rival faction in the upcoming elections will create a lot of tension, even at the top of the system. Regarding this, a state-run newspaper wrote on January 20 that the disqualification and unipolarization of the parliamentary elections have become a battleground among the country's leaders.
Speaking at a Cabinet meeting on January 22, Hassan Rouhani referred to the extensive disqualifications of his inner circle by the Guardian Council: "The goal is to get a decisive majority to participate in the election. Elections can take place, as in some countries, with the participation of 15% of the population, but this would not be desirable. We have never wanted an election with such a low participation level."
Rouhani's speech was undoubtedly aimed at Ali Khamenei.
Rouhani threatened the regime's leader by saying that if his inner circle candidates are removed, Khamenei shouldn't expect any cooperation to create the usual fake statistics of all past elections, such as multiplying the number of electoral votes by a certain coefficient in a so-called "compilation room."
This is the method by which the regime has presented the election results.
Dangerous occurrence
In order to deal with the upcoming crisis, Khamenei has no option but to resort to such a risky gamble. His close associates have already warned him about this dangerous policy. The so-called reformist, Mousavi Laari, for instance, was quoted as saying: "In most provinces, they (the Guardian Council) have rejected the valuable candidates from the race, hence turning the elections into a space of elimination. This is a dangerous development for Iran's today and tomorrow" (Arman newspaper, January 10, 2020). Laari warned against a kind of an unannounced boycotting of the election by those who have been disqualified: "People tend to vote for the person they believe and endorse; otherwise, they will not participate in the election."
Myth or reality in ambush
To sum up, one could argue that following the nature and ferocity of the recent uprisings, the overthrow of the clerical regime is no longer a myth. Rather, it is a reality, which the supreme leader knows quite well, as some analysts say the regime is on its last legs.
The leader of the Iranian opposition defined this year as "the year of downfall." By adopting the policy of consolidating its regime, Ali Khamenei endorses these analysis and speculations.