In matters of war and peace, it is vital to think and act in the context of time, place, and history. The U.S. conduct of war with Iran must be thought of this way.
In fact, there are fundamental similarities between the war against the Shia Mullah regime in Iran and the War against Nazi Germany that started World War II. Both Nazi Germany and today’s Shia mullah regime in Iran were and are evil regimes, with no respect for human life, and worse, an all-consuming hatred and commitment to annihilation of the Jewish people. If we say we would have stopped Nazi Germany if only we had known they would undertake a holocaust, then we had better wake up and defeat the Mullah-terrorist-IRGC regime in Iran now.
Let’s revisit what happened before the holocaust. By the mid-1930s, Adolf Hitler had already begun dismantling the post-World War I treaty provisions: rearming Germany in violation of the Treaty of Versailles (1935), remilitarizing the Rhineland (1936), and annexing Austria in the Anschluss (March 1938) — all without serious Western resistance. Each step convinced Hitler that Britain and France lacked the will to stop him.
Today, the Iranian regime may assess U.S. vacillation in a similar way that Hitler viewed the lack of resolve in Britain and France at that time.
In the summer of 1938, Hitler turned to annexing Czechoslovakia, piecemeal starting with the area known as Sudetenland — a border region with a large ethnic German population. Backed by the Sudeten German Party, Hitler succeeded in whipping up claims of Czech persecution of ethnic Germans and demanded the region be ceded to Germany.
British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain made three personal flights to Germany to negotiate directly with Hitler, culminating in a four-power conference in Munich led by Chamberlain, French Premier Γdouard Daladier, Hitler, and Italy's Benito Mussolini. Mussolini was the key actor in brokering the final terms, and would go on to become an ally of Hitler. It is noteworthy that Pakistan, which Iran has supported in several territorial disputes, has been brokering the failed peace negotiations between Iran and the United States.
The September 1938 Munich Agreement ceded the Sudetenland to Germany, and Chamberlain returned to Britain waving the joint declaration and famously declared it brought "peace for our time." While bringing temporary relief in Britain and France, the Munich Agreement was hollow. Hitler was emboldened by perceived weakness, and six months later, in March of 1939, he violated that agreement and marched troops into Czechoslovakia to take over the remainder of the country.
Six months later, in September 1939, Hitler invaded Poland, starting World War II.
While France joined Great Britain in declaring war on Germany, within six weeks of Hitler’s invasion of France, Belgium, and Holland on May 10, 1940, France’s military defense position collapsed, and Paris fell. On June 22, 1940, the French government signed an Armistice with Hitler.
The U.S. Operation Epic Fury against Iran has cycled through roughly six rounds of escalation → threaten major strikes → pull back for talks → sign a partial agreement → watch it collapse over enforcement disputes (mainly the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program) → escalate again. As of today, it's in another one of these fragile pause-for-negotiation windows, with no comprehensive settlement yet reached.
We see these cycles of on again — off again as failed negotiations, but Iran sees them as a successful way to stop U.S. bombing, buy time to get rearmed from China and Russia by land through Pakistan, and move the conflict agenda closer to the U.S. midterm elections. Maybe it is time that the Trump administration wakes up to being played for fools.
There are several big picture takeaways for the United States to think about and incorporate in dealing with Iran from what happened with Hitler’s Germany, France and Great Britain in the early years of World War II:
- First, recognize that evil regimes cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith and they cannot be appeased. They must be defeated, and preferably defeated early, which can save millions of lives.
- Second, weak countries are easily compromised and conquered by powerful evil regimes.
Iran sees U.S. hesitancy at this stage as their victory. It’s also important to remember that right after the first few days of Operation Epic Fury’s massive bombings, the Iran regime launched missile and drone strikes on Sunni neighbors: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.
So now, these neighbors of Iran, having been massively struck by Iran, are likely confounded and demoralized by the U.S. on-again-off-again hesitancy.
Very recently, Oman has entered into its own negotiations with Iran over control of the Straits of Hormuz, perhaps because cutting a deal with the devil they know was perceived as a better option than trusting the United States, which they may remember as being inept in Iraq and utterly incompetent in carrying out Trump 45’s Doha Agreement to withdraw from Afghanistan, which was disgracefully and unbelievably botched by the Biden Administration.
Our Sunni Arab allies are aware of the fickle nature of the American electoral political system. But all of them, having felt the pain of missile and drone attacks early in the Operation Epic Fury campaign, may not entirely trust Trump’s staying power in the face of an uncertain mid-term election. They may also throw in the towel on the Abraham Accords because of this questionable durability and inconsistency of American foreign policy.
Trump should turn all this around to the advantage not only of the United States, but also to the advantage of the Sunni states that have put up with the Shia Mullah regime in their neighborhood for the last 47 years, with a recent painful reminder of Iran’s wrath and wickedness.
The U.S. has about 400 fighter aircraft positioned in and around the Straits of Hormuz, while the neighboring Sunni nations collectively have 600 advanced fighter aircraft (that have been purchased mainly from the United States). The Kurds, who are largely Sunni Muslims, and with whom the U.S. has good relations, already have boots on the ground in Iran.
Strong, quiet leadership by the Trump team at this juncture could bring together a U.S.-Sunni, or a U.S.-Israeli-Sunni coalition with overwhelming force and capabilities to get this job done. After all, this is their neighborhood, not ours.
Iran is already a militarily defeated nation. To allow this evil, suicidal regime to rebuild and reconstitute itself would be a tragic missed opportunity to liberate the vast majority of Iranian people who want to live as free people under some form of democracy. And fundamentally, it would be a dereliction of duty to the greater Middle East. Defeating this regime also puts the nail in the coffin for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, all of which dramatically improves the prospects for peace in the region.
If there was a time to get this done and bring the Iran regime to its knees in total defeat, that moment is now.
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