Last weekend, President Trump announced that an interim peace deal was finally struck with the Iranians, or the remnants of leaders after the U.S. and Israel dispatched a slew of top dogs, most prominently the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As of this writing, details haven’t been released, but we’ll take Trump’s word that the deal is solid. J.D. Vance has been discussing some details in media opportunities. We’re going to assume the agreement holds.
As sure as the sun rises in the East, Democrats have begun undercutting the deal. And some folk on the right, for balance.
The agreement is good news for Republican congressional candidates -- and Republicans up and down ballots -- this autumn. It’s awful news for Democrats. Though midterm elections are historically losing ground for a president’s party, the war’s end changes the political dynamics. The election-year terrain will still be difficult for Republicans, but not nearly as daunting.
According to the president, the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping. Oil, of course, is the critical commodity that passes through the Strait. Since the war’s outset, oil prices shot through the roof, at one point doubling, per the Epoch Times. As of this writing, crude oil prices are falling in light of the president’s announcement. Prices dropping are critical to Republican fortunes. Democrats have no choice but to delegitimize the accord, hoping to roil energy markets.
Real Clear Politics (RCP) reports that Trump has a dismal 61.9% (average) disapproval on the economy. Polling is notoriously inaccurate nowadays, but that a lot of voters are unhappy with the economy is a fact.
Higher consumer costs have given the Democrats’ affordability mantra some traction. It’s central to their campaign messaging -- though likely not for long. Lower crude oil prices will soon cause a positive ripple effect. Trump has long said that he expected energy costs to “drop like a rock” once the conflict ended. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent issued a bullish forecast, too. Both men appear to be correct.
There’s linkage in voters’ minds: For Trump to get the credit he deserves for ending Iran’s nuclear weapons threat, subsequently, prices at the pump have to drop. Gas and grocery prices are mainstay barometers for consumers. There’s an entire summer ahead and some time post-Labor Day for voter perceptions to swing toward Trump and GOP congressional candidates.
Without affordability, what arguments are Democrats left with? Hey, voters, you’re still paying more per gallon for gas than you did prior to the war? Or not. But it won’t wash, anyway. Voters will be more open to these considerations: the war was necessary; its costs were minimal (13 dead military personnel, RIP); no boots on the ground; no forever war (a particular bugaboo for hardcore MAGA); tangible victory; and a clear trendline back to lower energy costs. And, yes, voters who aren’t blue love America winning.
Democrats and their corporate media allies are in the business of sabotage. Barack Obama just teed off, slapping at Operation Epic Fury’s resounding success. He indirectly defended his paying bribes to the mullahs, hoping they’d stop with their nuclear weapons schemes.
In an interview with Robin Roberts on Good Morning, America, June 15, Obama said:
"It is doubtful that any agreement that arises is going to be significantly different or a significant improvement from the deal that we had in the first place and had worked for, for a long stretch of time before we, the United States, pulled out of it," Obama told Roberts in the interview, which took place at the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago.
Obama conveniently omits that in the years since his agreement, the Iranians cheated. Recent reports were that Iran had been impeding inspections of its nuclear facilities and that it was moving closer to having nuclear weapons capability.
Democrats, who prefer useless bribery, will charge that the accord won’t guarantee resumption of nuclear weapons development. That won’t happen while Trump occupies the White House. Nor should future presidents tolerate a resumption. Any agreement needs close monitoring and enforcement. Yet another reason not to elect a Democrat president.
The surviving Iranian leaders appreciate that Donald Trump is a deadly serious man. The death and devastation inflicted on the regime have made quite an impression.
That pesky “nuclear dust” that Trump mentions? It’s buried under a mountain of rock and debris. The U.S. will have eyes in the sky watching. Trump will find the right time and route to have a U.S. or international team dig it out.
As to Trump being sniped at on the right, there are the usual suspects. Mostly neocons and establishment Republicans, like Erick Erickson, a longtime Trump detractor.
In a recent X post, Erickson claims the war was unnecessary. He charges that the peace accord is about “funding and legitimizing” the Iranian regime. Right. After pulverizing it. After killing an entire top strata of leaders. After strangling Iran’s economy and bringing the regime to its knees. What Erickson wanted, we’ll venture, is another regime-change war. The unnecessary war part seems poll-driven opportunism and very Obamaesque. Politics makes for strange bedfellows.
Then there’s Mark Levin, who backed Trump on the war. He’s miffed now because Israeli prime minister Bibi Netanyahu was cut out of the negotiations -- and Trump has been criticizing the prime minister. Might there be good reasons for that?
Perhaps the U.S. and Israeli end games -- the Israelis want the Iranian regime destroyed -- are incompatible? Whereas Netanyahu would welcome regime change, Trump, MAGA, and the American people -- particularly those who vote -- oppose it. And with good reason, in that it would be the U.S., not Israel, that would bear the costs and responsibilities of an occupation. Americans have seen enough of their servicemen and women returned in body bags from occupied Iraq and Afghanistan. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been wasted in fruitless, protracted nation-building exercises.
Israel is a staunch ally. They played a vital role in ending the Iranian nuclear threat. Israeli concerns about the regime resuming nuclear weapons development at a future time are legitimate. But, again, that’s where U.S. and Israeli vigilance enters. There must be immediate, dire consequences if pursued. Trump has made it clear that that should be a central feature of U.S. policy vis-Γ -vis Iran.
As for the American-Israeli relationship, while the nations share common interests, there are divergences. The U.S. has broader interests in the Middle East. Trump must calculate America’s best interests even if they diverge from or clash with Israel’s interests. Netanyahu does no differently. Voters expect Trump to act exclusively on their behalf.
The key for Republicans in the midterms is turning out their base. Nowadays, most of the base is MAGA voters. For the GOP, only one man can close the deal: the president. Trump, who loves the spotlight and a good fight, will barnstorm across the country to help Republicans, with a focus on competitive U.S. House races. Granted, Democrats need only gain three seats to take control of the House. But in light of the SCOTUS ruling against racially gerrymandered CDs, and red states redistricting in Republicans’ favor, as well as a changing issues landscape, Republican prospects are brightening.
Voter perception of the war is linked to the drop in energy prices. The war is more favorably viewed when paychecks stretch farther. It’s that simple. President Trump -- a master entrepreneur and politician -- knows it.
