A Trump Landslide Is Still Possible

posted by John Kudla at American Thinker 

I wrote a similar article when Joe Biden was still a presidential candidate.  Back then, the polls suggested that a Trump landslide was a real possibility.  Now the polls are closer, and some pollsters claim that Kamala Harris will win.  I disagree.

Please remember that most of what you are about to read is my opinion based on an analysis of political articles and polling data.  As such, it should be taken with a grain of salt.  

The reason you should be both doubtful and cautiously optimistic is simple.  Although the polls say the election will be close, Trump is currently in the best position polling-wise of any of his three presidential campaigns.  

Let’s set the stage for this election.  Biden, Kamala Harris, and the Democrat elite raided the U.S. Treasury to the tune of over $3 trillion during their first two years in office.  This was done under the guise of the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS Act, and the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act.  The resulting tidal wave of government cash caused inflation to spike, pushing prices up over 20% in four years.  Everything from food and electricity to insurance and interest rates went up and have stayed up.

At the same time, President Biden and Border Czar Harris allowed almost anyone to illegally cross our borders.  Estimates are that around 8 millionpeople crossed the border, with another 1.5 million got-aways not apprehended by the Border Patrol.  According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, over 660,000 have criminal histories.  The cost to house, feed, and care for these people is at least $150 billion/yearnationwide.  That money could have gone to U.S. citizens to help pay for natural disasters and other problems.

Crime related to illegal immigration is rising.  According to revised FBI estimates, violent crime rose by 4.5% in 2022.  Despite incomplete FBI statistics and mainstream media attempts to whitewash the issue, a recent study discovered that illegals are roughly twice as likely to be in prison in New York as other state residents, four times as likely in New Jersey, and five times as likely in Arizona.  There have been many high-profile crimes involving illegals and foreign gang members in Colorado, Georgia, and many other states.

I could name many other issues — everything from Afghanistan to electric vehicle mandates to DIE, weaponization of the Justice Department and the FBI, and on and on.

All of this ill use and poor judgment has produced some damning polling statistics.  According to the Real Clear Politics averages, roughly 64% of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track.  Roughly 60% disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, inflation, and immigration.  In an Economist/YouGov poll, only 35% said they were better off now than four years ago.  In an Atlas Intel poll, 52% said immigration was the greatest challenge for the U.S.  In a CBS News poll, 62% were in favor of a program to deport all illegal aliens.  Since Kamala said she would have done nothing different from Biden, these numbers could prove to be a liability.

This may have already happened in response to Biden’s left-wing policies.  According to Gallup, Republicans now have a three-point party affiliation advantage for the first time in the thirty-two years Gallup has been keeping records.  Pew Research says the Democrat/Republican registration numbers are almost even.

Polls show that Kamala will get less support from blacks and Hispanics than Biden in 2020.  Pew Research claims that Biden received 92% of the Black vote and 59% of the Hispanic vote.  According to the Economist/YouGov poll, Kamala has 80% of the black vote and 55% of the Hispanic vote.  Atlas Intel says Kamala gets only 67% of the black vote and 53% of the Hispanic vote.

The accuracy of political polls over the past two presidential elections has been poor.  In 2016, the RCP average overestimated Hillary’s vote by roughly one point nationally.  No big deal there.  However, the average miss was 7.4 points in states where Trump won.  Post-election, the culprit was identified as an undercount of white men and women without a college degree.  Polling organizations later claimed they had fixed the problem.

In 2020, the RCP average overstated Biden’s lead by 2.7 points nationally.  State polls overestimated Biden’s lead by an average of 4.3 points.  The problem was then identified as a combination of low-trust voters, late-deciding voters, and non-response bias, meaning conservatives who refused to answer polls.  The possibility that Trump voters might lie to the pollsters was dismissed; however, I think the late-deciding voters were going to vote for Trump all along.   

Pollsters claim they have solved what they are now calling the low-propensity Trump voter issue, but they say polling these voters requires more time and money.  My personal opinion is that the pollsters don’t have a clue.  The hidden/secret/ignored/unpolled Trump vote is real and will make its presence felt.  If you want my long take on the hidden Trump vote, click here. 

This election has seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  According to the RCP averages, Trump has the lead in all seven.  Whether this holds up when the votes are counted remains to be seen. 

Either candidate can win just three battleground states and become the 47th president.  For example, if Trump wins a combination of Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it is game over.  Kamala can do the same thing.

There is something called the Electoral College bias chart, which claims to tie the popular vote to the number of electoral votes Trump will win.  According to this chart, even if Kamala wins the popular vote by a margin of 2 points, Trump will win the Electoral College and the presidency.  If Kamala’s margin is anything less than 2 points, chances are Trump will pick up more than the 270 electoral votes he needs.  Currently, the RCP national polling average shows the race tied.  So, advantage Trump.

What happens if Trump outperforms the polls?  If he gets a 1% bump, he will probably sweep the battleground states.  That will guarantee him 312 electoral votes.  Some Democrat-leaning states could fall if he gets a 2–3% bump.  This means Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Maine.

My take is that New Mexico and New Hampshire are the most likely to go Trump.  A recent poll suggests Trump has a slight lead in the Shire.  Virginia is unlikely to flip due to the number of government workers who reside there.  

I’m not sure about Minnesota.  When I was a Democrat years ago, I voted for Jimmy Carter.  Carter was (and still is) a good man but a lousy president.  The next election, I voted for Reagan.  In a similar twist, I would tell the good Democrats there to vote for Trump.  If you don’t like the result, you can vote for a Democrat next time.

I know not what course others may take, but as for me, I intend to settle in with a few brews and a big bag of chips, cholesterol be damned, and watch CNN on election night.  I think it’s gonna be good.

Rally coverage, And we Know, and more- November 2nd

 

Fireworks: Candidate That Survived Communist China Demolishes Jake Sullivan’s Wife In Debate “Go Back to Your $2 Million Home in Portsmouth!” (Video)

 Republican Lily Tang Williams is running for Congress in New Hampshire against Democrat Maggie Goodlander.  Goodlander is married to Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s national security adviser. 

Willams survived Mao’s Cultural Revolution in communist China and, as displayed during a debate between the two candidates, has little patience for the empty words of out-of-touch liberal elites.

Williams’ direct style and no-nonsense delivery, borne from facing the brutality of a dictatorship, was apparent during the debate against Goodlander.

When discussing the economy and how to help Americans who have been suffering under Biden-Harris, Goodlander said her approach to tax breaks is not to “hope the results will trickle down to hard-working people.”

Goodlander has tried to seem like “regular-folk” and framed herself as a renter after taking up residency in Nashua, N.H., in order to run for the open congressional seat.

She leaves out the million-dollar home she purchased in 2018 in Portsmouth described by a real estate listing website as a “private oasis.”

Goodlander said, “I take a very different approach. I believe that the middle class deserves a tax cut, and I believe we will do a lot for this country continue this disasterous tax policy.”

Williams was not taking Goodlander’s faux outrage for regular Americans and her cosplay as a struggling middle-class family.

Williams fired back, “You are wealthy!! You’re worth $20-30 million. How do you know about regular people suffering?”

“Do you go to Walmart to go shopping to buy food? I talk to those people!”

“You pretend to be a renting in Nashua a few months ago and move back to run for this open seat with millions of dollars from Washington, D.C. insiders and millions and millions of dollars.”

“I don’t have millions of dollars to run t.v. ads…and you pretend you are poor because ‘rent is so high’

“You couldn’t save that apartment for other people to rent in Nashua.”

“Go back to your $2 million home in Portsmouth!”

Watch:

Willams also blasted Goodlander for refusing to condemn Biden for calling half of America “garbage.”

You can hear Williams’ story of coming to America and fleeing communism:

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/fireworks-candidate-that-survived-communist-china-demolishes-jake/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily

Why Women Support Donald Trump

posted by Katie Pavlich at Townhall 

With just days to go until America votes on November 5, Democrats are demanding women “make history” by putting Kamala Harris in the White House as the first female president. As part of a closing argument, vicious, leftist men are out on the airwaves waging war on Trump-supporting women. 

“Donald Trump, you never see him around strong, intelligent women. Ever," top Harris surrogate and billionaire Mark Cuban told "The View." "It’s just that simple. They're intimidating to him. He doesn't like to be challenged by them." 

Then, “Republican” former U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Michael Luttig decided to weigh in. 

“It has been beyond my comprehension how or why any woman in America would vote for Donald Trump,” Luttig told CNN. “I know I would be proud and proud for America to have a woman president, a woman president in the person of the Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris."

Stupid, false statements and smears. Let’s take a look at the record. 

Former President Donald Trump’s victorious 2016 campaign was helmed by Kellyanne Conway. As campaign manager, Conway, who took over for a fired Corey Lewandowski late in the race, successfully positioned Trump to beat Hillary Clinton by tearing down the Blue Wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

During Trump’s first term in the White House, his West Wing was teeming with women. Not because of their gender, but because they were capable, smart, qualified and good at their jobs in service to the American people. Ivanka Trump, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Kayleigh McEnany, Dina Powell, Hope Hicks and Brooke Rollins all come to mind. There were more women and working mothers in senior positions than any other administration in White House history. Trump set the example and led the way. 

Today, Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign is led by longtime political operative Susie Wiles. His daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, is running the Republican National Committee as co-chair. His operation is packed with capable, smart women and his rallies are filled with thousands of cheering female supporters. 

“I’m told [Mark Cuban] needs help identifying the strong and intelligent women surrounding Pres. Trump. Well, here we are! I’ve been proud to lead this campaign,” Wiles shot back on X. 

“Mark Cuban, a really dumb guy, who thinks he’s 'hot stuff' but he’s absolutely nothing, is now out there saying that I don’t surround myself with strong women. Actually, he is very wrong, I surround myself with the strongest of women - With the understanding that ALL women are great, whether strong or not strong. This guy is such a fool, he’s constantly on Television being critical, and only for the reason that I tuned him out completely while President because he called incessantly,” Trump piled on. “I may, in fact, be surrounded by the strongest women in the World, including Heads of Countries, who make Mark look like a 'baby!' All strong women, and women in general, should be very angry about this weak man’s statement.”

Women support Trump and oppose Harris for a number of reasons. They don’t believe in abortion without limits. They don’t want men preying on their daughters inside locker rooms or stealing their scholarships in sports competitions. They want inflation to stop wrecking their household budgets and to be able to afford a home for their family. They want safe streets, criminals put in prison and violent illegal aliens deported. They're against Harris because they believe the first female president of the United States should actually earn her position through a democratic process, not through a coronation. And much more. 

“For a party that can’t even define what a woman is, shame on you,” former White House Domestic Policy Chief and America First Policy Institute CEO Brooke Rollins said in reaction. 

This isn’t difficult, and yet, leftists like Cuban and Luttig can’t seem to get these concepts through their thick skulls. Millions of American women have voted for Trump before and they’re about to do it again. 

Abortion, Noncitizens, and Crime: Americans Will Weigh In on Dozens of Hot Button Ballot Measures This Election Day

 There are nearly 150 contentious issues to consider across 41 states.

Millions of votes across America are being cast to determine who will control the White House, Congress, and state and local government. 

In 41 states, Americans will also be asked to vote on a variety of ballot measures on hot-button issues such as abortion and recreational marijuana.

Here are some of the 146 ballot measures Americans will decide on: 

Abortion

Supporters of protections for abortion access are hoping to extend their winning streak with ballot measures. Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, six states have had ballot measures that would restrict or protect abortion access. 

None of those states either approved ballot measures aimed at curbing abortion access or rejected measures aimed at striking down abortion limits.

That could change in 2024. Ten states will consider measures to protect abortion access. 

Polls have found that Florida could be one of the first states to buck the trend as voters appear poised to reject Amendment 4, which would allow abortion up to the point of viability. 

Due to a 100-year-old law and two competing abortion ballot measures, voters in Nebraska could approve a measure to restrict abortion and another measure to protect abortion access. If both measures hit the required threshold to be approved, the one that received the most votes will become law.

New York is also considering an “Equal Rights Amendment,” known as Proposition 1. Proponents of the measure say it is designed to protect abortion access further and prevent discrimination.

However, Republicans in the state are calling Proposition 1 a “Trojan horse” due to its broad language. They say the measure’s inclusion of protections for “gender identity” could enshrine the ability of biological males to compete in women’s sports or set up the passage of laws that prevent parents from intervening if their children seek transgender treatments. 

Additionally, conservatives have suggested the amendment could require biological males to be able to use a women’s bathroom, be housed in a women’s prison, or set the stage for an irreversible plan for reparations for slavery, and open the door for noncitizens voting in state elections.

Crime

In Arizona, voters will consider Proposition 313, which would require those convicted of child sex trafficking to be sentenced to life imprisonment. 

Additionally, they will consider Proposition 314, which would give state officials the power to arrest noncitizens who enter the state illegally. The state passed a similar law in 2010. However, the Supreme Court struck down three of that law’s four provisions. 

California voters will weigh Proposition 36, which will allow felony charges to be brought against someone convicted at least twice of theft of items worth less than $950 or someone on their third offense of a drug-related crime. Currently, those offenses are classified as misdemeanors.

Proposition 36 increases the sentence length for several crimes. It adds fentanyl to a list of drugs, such as cocaine and heroin, that could lead to a felony if an individual is found to be in possession of a firearm and one of those drugs. If convicted, an individual could face up to four years in prison, as opposed to one year under the current policy. The initiative would also increase the sentencing for individuals on at least their second theft conviction to up to three years in prison instead of the current sentence of up to six months. 

Despite opposition from state Democratic leaders, polls have found the measure receives broad support.

In addition to the ballot measure, polls show the left-wing district attorney of Los Angeles, George Gascón, is on track to lose to a former federal prosecutor, Nathan Hochman. 

Mr. Gascón oversaw rising violent and property crime and a contentious prosecutor’s office as he sought to “dramatically change” the criminal justice system.  

Elections

Eight states will decide whether to ban noncitizens from voting in elections. Six states have approved similar measures between 2018 and 2022. 

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and South Dakota will consider whether to do away with partisan primaries and replace them with top-two or top-four primaries in which the leading candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election. 

Meanwhile, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Washington, D.C., will consider whether to implement ranked-choice voting for elections. 

Arizona will consider whether to ban top-two or top-four primaries, and Arkansas will decide whether to repeal its four-year-old system of ranked-choice voting. 

Marijuana legalization

Florida, South Dakota, and North Dakota will consider measures to legalize recreational marijuana. Polls in North Dakota and South Dakota have found those measures struggling to win enough support to be approved. 

However, recent polls show that the marijuana legalization amendment appears to be getting close to garnering enough support to pass in the Sunshine State despite Governor DeSantis and his allies working hard to defeat it. 

Voters in Nebraska will consider whether to approve medical marijuana. A poll conducted by Emerson College last month found 6 in 10 voters said they approve of the measure. 

Wages

Arkansas and Missouri will vote on raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, while California will decide whether to raise the minimum wage to $18 an hour. 

Arkansas, Missouri, and Nebraska will also vote on measures that would require employers to provide paid sick leave. 

BRADLEY CORTRIGHT

https://www.nysun.com/article/abortion-noncitizens-and-crime-americans-will-weigh-in-on-dozens-of-hot-button-ballot-measures-this-election-day

Harris, Once Joyful, Now Goes After Trump, Trafficking in Smears and Distortions Reminiscent of the McCarthy Era

 Victor Davis Hanson 

In the last two weeks, Vice President Harris has been trying to revive her stagnant campaign by smearing President Trump as being Hitlerian and a fascist. She claims Trump is planning to put his enemies in encampments.

Yet in the modern era, it was not Trump who put large numbers of American residents and citizens into “relocation camps,” but a liberal Democrat, President Franklin Roosevelt, who sent Japanese-American citizens and residents into them.

If Ms. Harris refers to Trump’s supposed fascist policies during his prior four-year tenure, there is no such evidence.

Nonetheless, the once “joyful” Ms. Harris is ending her campaign by trafficking in lies and smears reminiscent of the Senator McCarthy era.

Recall that fascists hijack law enforcement and the military to suspend constitutional rights and punish enemies. Trump, though, did neither.

Instead, in 2016, a corrupt FBI went after Trump himself during the Obama administration with the bogus Steele dossier.

The FBI, which in 2016 had hired the faker Steele, in 2020, fused with social media to suppress accurate news reporting of the embarrassing Hunter Biden laptop scandal.

A number of FBI directors and intelligence officials — John Brennan, James Clapper, James Comey, Andrew McCabe — who openly sought to destroy Trump had a long history of either lying or feigning amnesia under oath.

Fascists try to warp the legal system. Yet Trump’s own Justice Department selected an independent special counsel to investigate the invented Russian collusion accusations against him.

In vast contrast, the Biden Justice Department coordinated with Georgia prosecutors Fani Willis and Nathan Wade, special counsel Jack Smith, Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg, and New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, to prosecute Trump, bankrupt him, and keep off the campaign trail.

Fascists use their governments to destroy their enemies.

During Trump’s term, for the first time in history, the House of Representatives impeached a first-term president twice. And in another first, the Senate tried Trump as a private citizen.

A self-styled “anonymous” federal official bragged openly of deliberately, and likely unlawfully, leading a bureaucratic cabal to sabotage Trump’s lawful executive orders.

Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, in collusion with other bureaucrats, deliberately leaked a classified presidential phone call in an effort to ensure that Trump was impeached.

Fascists seek to change existing laws to destroy opponents and illegally consolidate power.

Currently, it is only the Democrats who seek to pack the court, destroy the Electoral College, end the Senate filibuster, and create two new states and thus gain four left-wing senators.

In key states, they radically changed voting laws.

As a result, roughly 70 percent of voters in 2020 did not cast their ballots in person on Election Day — even as the traditional rejection rates for fraudulent ballots mysteriously dived amid the influx.

Fascists arbitrarily nullify any laws they feel do not aid their agendas. Biden-Harris destroyed immigration law in order to bring in more than 12 million illegal aliens and gain new constituencies.

They also protected sanctuary cities, as some 600 such jurisdictions illegally and with impunity nullified federal immigration laws in neo-Confederate fashion.

Fascists seek to politicize the military.

Yet in Trump’s case, his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, brazenly violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice by libeling Trump as a fascist.

Worse still, General Milley sabotaged the chain of command by ordering theater commanders to report directly to him in times of serious crises.

And in near-treasonous fashion, General Milley contacted his Chinese communist counterpart in the People’s Liberation Army to assure him that he would warn the Chinese military before carrying out any Trump order he felt existentially dangerous.

Some of the most prominent retired four-star military officers — again in violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice — publicly smeared Trump as a coward, liar, fascist, Hitler-like, a Mussolini, a creator of Auschwitz-like death camps, and worthy of being removed “the sooner the better.”

Fascists seek to control and weaponize the media. So, Facebook and Twitter both conspired with the FBI to censure news accounts favorable to Trump. The major newspapers, social media corporations, television networks, and public broadcasting systematically and continually attacked Trump, censured his supporters, and fused with his opponents.

Why then the charges of Trump the fascist and Hitler reincarnation?

Simple. Ms. Harris’s personal negatives are rising, her polls inert.

She has abandoned her prior run-out-the-clock avoidance of the media, her smiley “joy” campaign, and instead now embraces the big lie, while President Biden writes off Trump supporters as “garbage.”

Mr. Harris is now confirming to voters that she really can neither think nor speak well and has no consistent agenda that appeals to the middle class.

So, in final desperation, Ms. Harris is smearing Trump as a fascist, even though ironically, he has been the target of fascist machinations from her own party and supporters for nearly a decade.

Tribune Content Agency

https://www.nysun.com/article/harris-once-joyful-now-goes-after-trump-trafficking-in-smears-and-distortions-reminiscent-of-the-mccarthy-era

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

Mr. Hanson is a distinguished fellow of the Center for American Greatness. He is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and the author of 'The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won,' from Basic Books.