Thursday, October 31, 2024

Human Nature and the Course of History


History is linear, of course, rather than cyclical. What creates an illusion of the latter is the relative stability of human nature — compared to cultural designs — across time and place. A conglomerate of (a) basic instincts, (b) intellectual capabilities, and (c) social adaptability, it represents the same potential from one generation to another, effectively predisposing those in power to commit the same crimes and errors of judgment over and over.

Unlike (a) the imbecile, who is unable to understand them, (b) the psychopath, who is fearless and seemingly indifferent, and (c) the coward, who lies to himself and shirks responsibility, a healthy person learns from his experiences. Memory is essential for successful adaptation to the environment. Something similar applies to small and large groups with a common destiny, including neighborhood communities and nations.

In an “open society” with an ongoing, spirited debate, the exchange of open-source information, well-intentioned corrections or critical judgments should not allow anybody to be in the dark for long. However, it is quite another matter whether the available knowledge is interpreted in a useful way. It takes judgment to extract the essence of complex conflicts and fathom alternate prospects. Thus, unreflective familiarity with past experiences as presented — and selected — by historians, media commentators or ideological “stakeholders” provides nothing like a guarantee against fatal repetitions once political decisions are due.

It so happens that humanity continues to pay a high price for its fake amnesia. Western leaders display a political-moral reluctance to, not so much learn from experience, which is probably ruled out by ample advice from near and far, as faithfully make use of their insights, drawing logical conclusions from their own observations and acting in time to prevent disaster. Vanity, uncertainty, and cowardice weaken their resolve in the moment of decision. Intimidated by a totalitarian enemy, they may have an early sense of where it is going, but dare not defy him, seeking refuge in the hope of the improbable.

In our time, we have the misfortune of witnessing several cases of military buildup and warlike behavior outside the West (e.g. Russia, Iran, and China), knowing that sooner or later it will lead to an apocalyptic showdown in which we risk ending up as losers. Yet, we fail to intervene while having something like the upper hand. Instead, we surrender to trepidation, momentary complacency, and “improbable” (hypocritical) hope — in the face of evil — as the threat grows day by day. For all our knowledge, we really act like dithering idiots. We should know better and act accordingly — if only we had the courage to be honest with ourselves.

In retrospect, we know very well that France and Great Britain together would have been able to contain Third-Reich Germany by exercising timely care in the 1930s, enforcing the treaty provisions from World War I and preventing any military comeback. Remilitarizing the Rhineland in 1936, the Nazis played for high stakes and won the first round. On a personal level, Neville Chamberlain, the epitome of a British gentleman, thought he had Adolf Hitler under control after looking him in the eye during the 1938 negotiations in Munich, but was woefully deceived. So much for old-fashioned decency in the company of thugs.

Truth be told, it is not necessarily due to sheer credulity that the West hesitated so excruciatingly long before knocking the communist-turned-nationalist Slobodan Milošević into place sixty years later. In front of the entire world press, he put the West off with patent lies and sham negotiations. However, Western diplomats, slick and calculating managers by profession, must have been quick to see him through. It is rather that, in principle, it requires the exclusion of all other courses of action for a democratic government (or a military alliance of liberal democracies) to advocate and prepare for violent action. Sometimes, admittedly, it is difficult to distinguish between time-wasting, though purposeful, diplomacy and cowardice.

After coming to power, in defiance of good judgment and traditional loyalties, Barack H. Obama went to Cairo to deliver a speech at the university titled “A New Beginning” (June 4, 2009). With a messianic self-confidence strengthened by his star status in progressive circles, he intended to “reach out to” the Muslim world. Allegedly, it was his grandiose ambition, seduced by his own oratory, to redefine relations between America and Muslim-majority countries. The thesis was that they suffered in the shadow of grave sins committed by the white ruling class of his homeland: (a) racism (as implied in transatlantic slave trade and plantation slavery in the South), (b) colonialism, and (c) — most recently — anti-Islamism (as in the “War on Terror” launched by the previous administration of George W. Bush).

Of course, Obama never succeeded in appeasing the Middle Eastern tyrants, whether secular or Islamist. Guided by predatory instincts, they immediately sensed weakness (i.e. nurture of domestic division, renunciation of patriotism, and relativization of freedoms). What they picked up on was that they no longer needed to fear America when systematically violating human rights and international law. Obvious to everybody, the Pax Americana was in decline.

As outlined in his peculiarly self-repudiating declaration, the “new beginning” of Obama was in fact a rejection of past generations and their immeasurable sacrifices for the American idea, heralding the ideology-based, woke-infused breakup of his country. When he was elected, hardly anybody imagined what a devastating social upheaval he would set in motion (e.g. promoting the conspiracy theory of “structural racism”). No doubt, he laid the seed for the deep division that characterizes the country today from east to west.

Facing a tyrannical, superior, and determined enemy on the move, Westerners tend to quarrel amongst themselves. This tradition of “inappropriate disagreement” at critical moments — invariably to the undivided delight of the enemy, of course — goes back to ancient Greece. Threatened with extinction by the Achaemenid Empire, competition for panhellenic leadership, unresolved conflicts, and a general atmosphere of mistrust initially prevented the Greek city-states from coordinating their military activities and mounting a credible response to the enemy advance.

Pacifism, as it unfolded in the interwar period, inspired by socialists such as George B. Shaw, epitomized complacent naïveté and defeatism. At the same time, it was a monument to cowardice and failure of humanity by privileged Westerners (i.e. enjoying the rights of a liberal democracy themselves), betraying civilization and trampling on ideals of dignity and freedom. Both in the Third Reich and the Soviet Union, the cynical strategists of totalitarianism must have rejoiced over the “useful idiots” of the peace movement. Under the pretense of being “realists,” there are yet other Westerners (e.g. John J. Mearsheimer) who carry on the tradition of anti-Western treason and explain away revanchist violations of international law as the fault of the liberal democracies themselves.

In international politics, appeasement of totalitarian aggressors by liberal democracies is a short-sighted, shameful strategy. Tried without success in the past, to say the least, it is unsuitable for anything other than whetting the appetite of the anti-democratic enemy. Unless the aggrieved party is reconciled with the prospect of piecemeal surrender to the point of self-destruction, it achieves nothing by unreasonable concessions but postponement of the inevitable showdown (e.g. war).

Societies ruled by brutal, unrelenting persons with unlimited power, whatever the (pseudo-)legitimating ideology, project the megalomania of the individual at the top and are likely to adopt a psychopathic-like (e.g. bullying) behavior on the international stage. Depending on the human decency of such tyrants is a fatal mistake. On the contrary, they are human predators behaving like wolves in a flock of sheep.

The opposite of appeasement is a show of resilience, vigorously defending freedom, justice, and peace at the same time. Western tolerance and openness to dissent should never be confused with doubts about fundamental values. Loyalty to civilization is essential. In order not to fail humanity, liberal democracies must believe in themselves, be strong, and prepare for war. In the words of a Christian Roman:

“Igitur qui desiderat pacem, præparet bellum.”

— Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus (De Re Militari)



X22, And we know, and more- Oct 31

 



Here's something that's definitely NOT scary: We are only 5 days away from the mots historic liberal meltdowns this site has ever seen!!

Harris Campaign Recruits Foreign Volunteers, Tells Noncitizens How To Skirt Donation Rules

 Part three of an investigation into how the Harris-Walz campaign is manipulating social media sites to artificially boost their popularity, spread election disinformation, and skirt election laws.

In the previous installments of this investigation into how the Harris-Walz presidential campaign is dishonestly manipulating online platforms, I noted the existence of a Discord server where campaign employees coordinate with a volunteer army to flood social media sites with campaign propaganda. The volunteers also vote en masse on social media to artificially boost Harris-Walz content or downvote content that is harmful to their campaign. Not only is this deceptive and misleading to voters, it’s a clear violation of these websites’ Terms of Service.

In part one and part two of the investigation, I noted this strategy had been successful at manipulating both Reddit and X. Over the past month, one out of every eight of the top stories in the eight-million-member Politics subreddit was planted by the campaign. On X, the campaign appears to have successfully voted down Community Notes accurately calling out the Harris campaign for tweeting out brazen lies.

But one activity I found on the Discord server was particularly concerning. After years of Democrats erroneously insisting that Donald Trump had colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election and otherwise warning of foreign election manipulation, the Harris-Walz campaign is actively recruiting foreigners to work on the campaign and is even encouraging them to donate to American political causes.

There appears to be no vetting, and given that the Harris-Walz campaign’s Discord community overtly engaged in disinformation campaigns, it was ripe for infiltration and abuse by foreign intelligence and other bad actors attempting to influence the election — although I saw no concrete proof of that.    

However, my research found multiple foreign nationals actively volunteering for the Harris-Walz campaign. This activity, while permitted by the FEC, raises questions about whether foreigners should be allowed to volunteer for official U.S. political campaigns. Their comments ranged from showing excitement at how they could volunteer to “save democracy”…

 … to Canadians sharing their plans to make road trips to Michigan, where they aim to go door-to-door canvassing …

…and asking how they, as foreigners, could donate money to “help fund the Harris-Walz campaign” using a legal donation loophole …

… which was praised by the server’s moderators, who went on to distribute the link to other channels (chats) in the Discord server.

The server’s moderators embraced the foreigners with open arms. Moderators are powerful users in Discord communities — they have the power to delete messages, ban users, and make announcements that reach the entire server’s user base (35,000 individual people at the time of writing). They were overjoyed to see non-American support, and eager to help foreigners learn how they could make a meaningful impact in the upcoming presidential election.

On Oct. 20, 2024, the campaign pinged the abroad group, desperately urging foreigners to spam call Wisconsin voters. Their goal was to reach 5 million telemarketing calls on Kamala’s birthday.

When one foreign user expressed concern about “meddling in US elections,” a moderator quickly assured him this was perfectly legal, and urged him to phone bank for Kamala.

While the Federal Election Commission does prohibit foreign nationals from making monetary donations and contributions to U.S. campaigns directly, it does explicitly allow foreign nationals to volunteer for campaigns as long as they are uncompensated. Unfortunately, the FEC does not account for donation loopholes, which are currently being propagated throughout the Harris-Walz Discord server.

The Harris-Walz staff are clearly teaching foreigners how to skirt FEC regulations. This may not be illegal, but it is enticing foreign nationals to influence American elections — something that Democrats have spent years warning is a serious threat to democracy.

Whether this directly violates election laws is also beside the point for many Americans, who believe foreign nationals should not be allowed to volunteer for U.S. presidential campaigns. American elections should be for Americans, and the Harris-Walz campaign is actively inviting foreign influences into their campaign.



https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/31/harris-campaign-recruits-foreign-volunteers-tells-noncitizens-how-to-skirt-donation-rules/

Republicans Are Getting Nervous About Historic Turnout of Women Voters This Year

 Several conservative influencers with close ties to President Trump have sounded the alarm that men — who overwhelmingly back the former president — are not turning out at the level they need to.


With just six days to go until the 2024 election, Republicans are sounding the alarm that men are not turning out at the requisite numbers to ensure a victory for President Trump, based on early and mail vote data that has so far been released. One expert writes that if Vice President Harris meets her current polling advantage among women on election day, and women turnout at their 2020 levels, then the vice president would win comfortably. 

The panic began on Wednesday and continued into Thursday, as Trump allies and even the former president himself sounded alarm bells about the vote in Pennsylvania. 

“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” the founder of Turning Point USA and Trump surrogate, Charlie Kirk, wrote on X. “If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW.”

In a sign of how nervous he is, Mr. Kirk went so far as to pin that post to the top of his profile on the platform. 

“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster. Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over,” wrote conservative activist Mike Cernovich, another influential Trumpworld figure. 

Trump himself weighed in on Truth Social on Thursday. “We caught them CHEATING BIG in Pennsylvania. Must announce and PROSECUTE, NOW! This is a CRIMINAL VIOLATION OF THE LAW,” the former president wrote, citing no evidence. “STOP VOTER FRAUD! … WE ARE ON THEM ALL THIS TIME!”

It’s understandable why Republicans are starting to panic given the early and mail in voting numbers that have come in so far. According to one analysis by Politico, women are leading men by 13 points in Pennsylvania early and mail voting. 

Women have broken sharply for the Democrats in recent election cycles, and are likely to deliver Ms. Harris a White House victory if the trend continues. According to voting data compiled by TargetEarly, women have outperformed men dramatically in terms of turnout in recent national elections. In 2020, women made up 53 percent of the electorate compared to men, who made up 44 percent. In 2022 — when Republicans had a historically bad night for an opposition party in the midterms — women made up 52 percent of the voters while men made up 45 percent. 

As of Thursday, women are on track to outperform again. According to turnout data for the 2024 election, women make up 53.2 percent of this year’s voters so far, compared to men who make up just 44.5 percent. 

In must-win Pennsylvania this year, it is understandable why conservatives are beginning to panic based on the data. Four years ago, women made up 53 percent of the vote and men made up 47 percent in the Keystone State, which helped deliver the commonwealth for President Biden. 

According to the most recent Marist poll of Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris leads Trump by 12 points among women, and is losing men to Trump by just ten points. Her ability to dominate the higher turnout population was limiting her losses on the lower turnout demographic, one could argue Ms. Harris is already a strong favorite to carry the state. 

It isn’t just Pennsylvania that appears to be slipping away from Trump thanks to women voters. In Michigan, women make up 55 percent of the early and mail votes cast so far, compared to men who make up only 44 percent. Another Marist poll of Michigan voters finds that Ms. Harris leads Trump among women by 15 points. Georgia, similarly, has seen a disproportionately female electorate since early voting began. According to the secretary of state’s office, women make up 56 percent of the early and mail votes cast so far, while men make up only 44 percent. 

The Brookings Institution’s Elaine Kamarck wrote before early voting began that as long as Ms. Harris kept her 12-point national lead with women through the election, and women turned out at the same levels they did in 2020, the vice president would be a strong favorite come election day. 

“This exercise shows that if the composition of the electorate between men and women remains the same as it was in 2020, Harris could win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada — all states Biden won in 2020. She could also win North Carolina (which Biden lost in 2020) but by a very narrow margin,” Ms. Kamarck wrote. 

Trump’s historic unpopularity among women means he may end up with the lowest percentage of the female vote since Senator Dole in 1996, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Abortion has a great deal to do with that gap, though Trump has made his own gaffes about women voters that have also played a role in the deficit. Just on Wednesday, Trump promised to protect women from criminals who entered the country seeking asylum, “whether the women like it or not.”

https://www.nysun.com/article/republicans-are-getting-nervous-about-historic-turnout-of-women-voters-this-year

Chinese Hackers Compromised Multiple Canadian Government Networks for Years, Stole Info: Security Agency

 “Over the past four years, at least 20 networks associated with Government of Canada agencies and departments have been compromised by PRC cyber threat actors,” said the National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025-2026, released Oct. 30 by the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security.

CSE chief Caroline Xavier appears at the Foreign Interference Commission in Ottawa on Sept. 26, 2024.

The centre identifies China as the top threat actor targeting Canada, noting that its cyber operations are “second to none” in scale, technique, and ambition. Beijing’s objectives include espionage, intellectual property theft, malign influence, and transnational repression, the centre says. 
The cyber centre is hosted within CSE, Canada’s electronic spy agency, which is responsible for collecting signals intelligence and defending against cyberattacks.

China Targets

In addition to federal agencies, provincial and territorial governments are also seen as valuable targets for Beijing, the report said, noting that these governments hold decision-making power over regional trade and commerce, including the extraction of critical minerals and other natural resources.
Xavier said this targeting indicates Beijing is a “sophisticated, consistent, and persistent actor,” and that Canada needs to address the threat with a more comprehensive approach.
“We have work to do as a nation, to continue to work, in particular with the provinces, territories, indigenous communities, because we recognize that we’re all vulnerable, or we all could be vulnerable, and we really want to continue to raise Canada’s cyber resilience,” she said.
The cyber centre also echoed previous reports from various human rights groups, warning that Beijing’s transnational repression has primarily targeted five specific communities, referred to by the regime as the “five poisons.” These include Falun Gong practitioners, Uyghurs, Tibetans, supporters of Taiwanese independence, and pro-democracy activists.
“PRC actors very likely facilitate transnational repression by monitoring and harassing these groups online and tracking them using cyber surveillance,” the report said. “For example, the PRC has been publicly linked to cyber espionage operations against the Uyghur minority group, including members living in Canada, using spear phishing emails and spyware.”

Other Countries Named

Other state-backed threat actors highlighted in the cyber centre report include Russia, Iran, and India.
Russia’s cyber operations are characterized as “a multi-layered strategy” that combines conventional cyber espionage and computer network attacks with disinformation. Its primary goal is to enhance Russia’s global status while undermining democratic institutions in Canada and among its allies.
A specific case cited in the report involves a breach detected by Microsoft in January, where a Russian state-sponsored cyber threat actor known as Midnight Blizzard accessed the company’s cloud-based enterprise email service.
The group infiltrated correspondence between Microsoft and government officials in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Initially, the actors sought information about Russia itself, but later used personal data and credentials from the emails to gain access to Microsoft customer systems.
Meanwhile, the report said Iran has been expanding its cyberattacks to western countries amid its ongoing military conflict with Israel.
“Iran has taken advantage of its back-and-forth cyber confrontation with Israel to improve its cyber espionage and offensive cyber capabilities and hone its information campaigns, which it is now almost certainly deploying against targets in the West,” the report said.
During the press conference, Xavier also identified India as an “emerging threat” to Canada.
“India very likely uses its cyber program to advance its national security imperatives, including espionage, counterterrorism, and the country’s efforts to promote its global status and counter narratives against India and the Indian government,” the report said.
Citing her recent testimony before the foreign interference inquiry, Xavier noted India could potentially “flex those cyber threat actions against Canadians” amid ongoing diplomatic tensions.
Earlier this month, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, prompting a reciprocal move by India, which also expelled six Canadian diplomats. This dispute arose after the RCMP announced its investigation into criminal activities allegedly involving “agents of the Government of India.” 

‘Ever-Present’ Threat

The Centre for Cyber Security says Canada has entered a new era in which cyber threats are “ever present.”
“Canadians will increasingly feel the impact of cyber incidents that have cascading and disruptive effects on their daily lives,” the report said.
The centre says the threat has expanded as Canadians increasingly rely on online platforms and digital technologies to go about their lives.
“These systems record and process vast amounts of data about us, often over poorly secured or untrustworthy digital networks,” it said.
Aside from the threats from hostile state actors, the centre notes that the cybercrime business model is “underpinned by flourishing online marketplaces” where leaked data is sold along with cyber tools for criminals.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/chinese-hackers-compromised-20-government-networks-in-past-4-years-cyber-threat-report-5750674?utm_source=China_article_paid&src_src=China_article_paid&utm_campaign=China-2024-10-31-ca&src_cmp=China-2024-10-31-ca&utm_medium=email&est=LsOHrvV1hQPBXoXvjMY2yFlVM%2FvU4i82pLPt9A8ykEfLpFt%2B0WuPb%2F4ktK4O3%2F6ACMcU&utm_term=news1&utm_content=1