Thursday, March 17, 2022

The Fog of Information War in Ukraine


The Western intelligence apparatus has been busy in Ukraine. With financing and collaboration through various non-governmental organizations, it won the information war with the help of Ukrainian media before Russia ever fired a shot in February. Even the country’s newest publications, like the Kyiv Independent, have received support and funding from institutions associated with the Central Intelligence Agency. 

In most cases, these outlets have propagandized to the beat of the West’s war drums rather than inform the public.

Since the Independent launched last November, it has amassed nearly two million Twitter followers and become a main artery of information in the war. Far from being objective, its writers tend to snap at those who contradict their narratives. Illia Ponomarenko, the Independent’s defense reporter, even declared himself “brothers in arms” with Azov Battalion, a unit known for committing war crimes against civilians in eastern Ukraine. According to journalist Michael Tracey, Ponomarenko amassed almost a million followers in less than two weeks. 

That kind of growth is hard and impressive. But the Independent also has some special connections.  

The publication has a growing subscriber base today, but according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, it was created with an “emergency grant from the European Endowment for Democracy,” a spinoff of the National Endowment for Democracy. What is the NED? On the surface, it’s an NGO that promotes civil society worldwide by, among other things, sponsoring and providing training for journalists and activists directly or indirectly. The reality, however, is different. 

Here’s ProPublica’s characterization: “The National Endowment for Democracy was established by Congress, in effect, to take over the CIA’s covert propaganda efforts. But, unlike the CIA, the NED promotes U.S. policy and interests openly.” The NED’s co-founder, Allen Weinstein, admitted as much. “A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA,” he said in an interview with the Washington Post entitled, “Innocence Abroad: The New World of Spyless Coups.” 

“The biggest difference is that when such activities are done overtly, the flap potential [i.e., embarrass or embroil the CIA in controversy] is close to zero,” Weinstein said. Recall that in 1967, Ramparts magazine humiliated the agency by exposing that it had turned the National Student Association’s international activities into “an arm of United States foreign policy” through undercover financing and secret collaboration. Now, “Openness is its own protection,” as Weinstein put it.

 Put simply, the NED uses democracy movements to bring foreign governments into harmony with Washington’s interests. How that looks in practice takes different forms, including regime change. But a constant is formulating and managing narratives, which is why the NED has long funded media and activist groups. A recent report published by Declassified UK noted that the NED paid out more than $3 million between 2016 and 2021 to outlets like Bellingcat and the Thomson Reuters Foundation. Echoing Weinstein, a former CIA officer told Declassified that the NED is a “vehicle” for U.S. government “propaganda.”

The EED’s Facebook page refers to the Independent as a “partner,” and shows a close relationship with the NED.

In September 2021, a profile of the Independent’s chief editor, Olga Rudenko, appeared in ProMarket, a publication of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Rudenko was visiting the school for a journalism development program. According to ProMarket, she is also a board member at the Media Development Foundation, an NGO that has received at least $225,140 from the NED. You won’t find that without a digital archive because the NED’s records of funding projects in Ukraine was either moved or deleted recently. The archived page shows that from 2014 to the present, the NED has granted $22,394,281 through 334 awards to Ukraine. However, since the change, the NED only allows users to search back to 2017.

The MDF’s Facebook page features several posts referencing partnerships, exchange programs, and training affiliated with the NED that often conclude with an appreciative variation of: “to our partners National Endowment for Democracy, without them there would be nothing.” One post reads: “There is a donor National Endowment for Democracy who is very invested in the development of Ukrainian media.” Indeed, the MDF’s mission statement on the NED’s archived page also notes that it “will maintain and expand the Kyivpost.com website,” another key source of propaganda in the Ukraine-Russia war. 

According to its LinkedIn page, the MDF was founded in 2013. That was the same year that a Western-backed coup in Ukraine got underway and when the EED launched. The NED and the EED have worked in tandem toward the same liberal internationalist vision ever since. Understanding their role in Ukraine’s political affairs and the media’s complicity helps explain how we got to the current crisis.

Modeled after the NED, the EED’s establishment was initially proposed in 2011 by Radosław Sikorski, a Polish journalist and a Member of the European Parliament. Speaking to donors that year, he said the “foundation would help develop democratic processes in the whole EU neighborhood—in Belarus, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Russia.” The Arab Spring has just been nurtured by an array of institutes financed through the NED. 

Sikorski is also the husband of Anne Applebaum, a Polish-American staff writer for The Atlantic who sits on the NED’s board of directors. The EED’s Polish connection isn’t an accident. While serving as director of the CIA, James L. Pavitt declared, “Poland is the 51st state,” a former CIA official told the New York Times. “Americans have no idea.” 

On paper, a sovereign Poland led the charge to create the EED and it is bankrolled by the European Commission. But that arguably just provides a layer of plausible deniability for its friends in D.C. It’s not hard to connect “the Blob” to the NED and the EED through characters like Victoria Nuland, who currently serves as President Joe Biden’s Under Secretary for Political Affairs. 

 board member of the NED until last year, Nuland is married to Robert Kagan, a leading advocate of liberal interventionism. From 2018 to 2019, she served as CEO of the Center for a New American Security, a conflict of interest disguised as a think tank that has received funding from every major defense contractor, Wall Street’s biggest banks, and several foreign governments. Her career also spans several presidential administrations.  

She was a staffer under President Bill Clinton from 1993 to 1996. Between 2003 to 2005, Nuland played an influential role during the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq as a key advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney. She acted as U.S. ambassador to NATO in Brussels from 2005 to 2008 and helped exacerbate tensions between Georgia and Russia.

Nuland is most notorious for her part in Ukraine’s 2013-2014 “Maidan Uprising,” a coup that saw the country’s government replaced with one approved by the Obama administration. The NED was key in that $5 billion effort to flip Ukraine. 

Carl Gershman, who served as the NED’s president from its founding in 1984 until 2021, called Ukraine “the biggest prize” in September 2013 in the Washington Post. Jerzy Pomianowski, the EED’s first executive director and a former state secretary in Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was just as candid as Gershman and Weinstein. Asked if the EED had a right to meddle in the affairs of foreign countries, Pomianowski said during an interview with Die Welt in January 2013, “we may not have the formal right to act everywhere. But we can.” 

The EED became operational in the summer of 2013, just before the protests to oust Ukraine’s democratically elected—but insufficiently compliant—government began with the help of the U.S. State Department, where Nuland was Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. Nuland’s role in the regime change has led to her being called “the architect of American influence in Ukraine.” 

But Nuland’s coup wouldn’t have been possible without the help of Ukrainian politician Oleh Tyahnybok and the Right Sector, which emerged as a confederation of paramilitary groups during the protests in November 2013. Its leader, Dmytro Yarosh, served as an aide to Ukrainian diplomat and politician Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. From late 2006 until early 2010, and from 2014 to 2015, Nalyvaichenko headed the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), essentially the Ukrainian KGB successor. 

Nuland referred to Tyahnybok in a leaked phone call as one of the “big three” opposition leaders on the outside who could help set up a new government approved by the Obama administration, led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, on the inside. A separate but related exchange between EU Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton and Estonia’s Foreign Minister Urmas Paet further connected Tyahnybok and Nuland.  

The two were involved in an inquiry to determine who was responsible for the violence during the protests. Police and civilians had been killed by sniper fire, and Ashton assumed it was then-President Viktor Yanukovych who was largely to blame. However, Paet’s intelligence suggested “that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovych, but it was somebody from the new coalition.” In other words, an outside group had orchestrated the shootings on both sides to sow chaos.  

The shootings were central to the protests because the victims’ deaths were propagandized by the media as evidence of Yanukovych’s tyranny. In their honor, a national memorial and an order of Ukraine were created. But not everything was as it seemed.

Right Sector militants were blamed for fanning the flames of violence. Some alleged that these groups were supported by the West. “Snipers were also trained in Poland” as “a favor to Washington,” said Polish politician Janusz Korwin-Mikke in an interview with Wirtualna Polska. When asked for evidence, he replied: “I am sitting in the European Parliament next to Mr. Urmas Paet, the Estonian Foreign Minister, who admitted in an interview with Baroness Catherine Ashton of Upholland that it was our people who shot on the Maidan. 

“The democratic activists who participated in this coup were trained in Poland and this is no secret,” said Tomasz Sommer, now a non-resident research fellow with the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies at the Institute of World Politics. Oleksandr Yakymenko, the head of the SBU at the time of the coup, also implicated Warsaw, claiming in an interview on Rossiya 24 television that “all orders were issued either from the Embassy of the United States or from the Embassy of the European Union.” The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied all allegations. 

Yakymenko also claimed that Nalyvaichenko, Yarosh’s old boss and friend, had collaborated with U.S. intelligence while running the SBU. “CIA officials worked in the Ukrainian Security Service under Nalyvaichenko. The personal files of SBU officials were provided to them,” Yakymenko said. Notably, Nalyvaichenko, who replaced Yakymenko as head of the SBU after the coup, did not deny the possibility of the West backing the protests and said that the U.S. had an interest in exacerbating the situation in Ukraine. 

In the end, Ashton and Paet did not pursue the inquiry further. But Estonia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the call’s authenticity after it was leaked and sparked a scandal. Today, Yarosh is the primary commander of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army. 

On Jan. 9, 2013, in the months leading up to the coup Nuland and the NED helped instigate, Ashton announced, as co-chair of the EED’s board of governors, that the “new initiative, largely inspired by the US-funded National Endowment for Democracy,” was beginning to take shape. EURACTIV, a media network focused on EU policies, noted that Ukraine’s leaders viewed the EED at the time with hostility because, they said, it “provokes unrest” and “weakens” the country. Nevertheless, Ashton declared in Brussels that the “Endowment comes at a very timely moment, as 2013 will be a crucial year for democratic transitions, in particular in the EU’s neighbourhood.” 

“The European Endowment for Democracy can play a very important role,” she added. “By working directly with those in the field, who are striving for democracy; and by offering flexible, non-bureaucratic and dedicated procedures that are tailored to the needs and demands on the ground.” 

The journalists and activists trained by intelligence-connected NGOs were so instrumental in shaping Western perceptions on the “revolution” that it has been called the “The Journalist Uprising.” But the myth of a democratic Ukraine is largely an NGO fantasy. The reality is that the country continues to be plundered by oligarchs and foreign governments, neither of which care much for the people of Ukraine.

Now, the Kyiv Independent continues the work of manufacturing and managing consensus.

As troops massed on Ukraine’s borders, Rudenko criticized Zelensky specifically and the West’s “megaphone diplomacy” generally in the New York Times. She said Russia had been “waging a war in eastern Ukraine since 2014,” and warned that should Zelensky make “any concession to Russia,” it “would likely bring hundreds of thousands of people to the streets—threatening him with the fate of Viktor Yanukovych, the president overthrown by a revolution in 2014.”  

 Rudenko curiously omitted the United States’ involvement in that “revolution.” Nor did she mention that the “war” in eastern Ukraine was triggered by Nuland’s coup when anti-government separatist groups declared independence from the Washington-approved regime. Indeed, there appears to be little daylight between Rudenko’s publication and D.C.’s liberal interventionists. The Independent uncritically amplifies President Volodymyr Zelensky’s false claims of Russian nuclear terrorism and demands for a no-fly zone—all of which, if acted upon, would result in a catastrophic escalation of the war.

It’s no surprise, then, that CIA Director Bill Burns recently told lawmakers that Russia “is losing” the information war. But what he really means, though, is that a false, Manichean narrative has emerged to absolve the West of all wrongdoing and inch us toward nuclear war. Supposedly, all in the name of “democracy.” 

But “democracy” in Ukraine started a civil war that has raged for nearly a decade, with more than 14,000 dead before Russia even crossed the Rubicon. It meant turning Ukraine into the poorest country in Europe and using it as a proxy in the West’s new cold war, for which it is now paying dearly.


X22, Christian Patriot News, and more-March 17

 



Happy St. Patrick's Day! Here's tonight's news:



10 Realities of Ukraine ~ VDH

We should not rehash the past but learn from it—and thereby ensure Vladimir Putin is defeated now and deterred in the future.


One. Reassuring an enemy what one will not do ensures that the enemy will do just that and more. Unpredictability and occasional enigmatic silence bolster deterrence. But Joe Biden’s predictable reassurance to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he will show restraint means Putin likely will not. 

Two. No-fly zones don’t work in a big-power, symmetrical standoff. In a cost-benefit analysis, they are not worth the risk of shooting down the planes of a nuclear power. They usually do little to stop planes outside of such zones shooting missiles into them. Sending long-range, high-altitude anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine to deny Russian air superiority is a far better way of regaining air parity.

Three. Europe, NATO members, and Germany in particular have de facto admitted that their past decades of shutting down nuclear plants, coal mines, and oil and gas fields have left Europe at the mercy of Russia. They are promising to rearm and meet their promised military contributions. By their actions, they are admitting that their critics, the United States in particular, were right, and they were dangerously wrong in empowering Putin.

Four. China is now pro-Russian. Beijing wants Russian natural resources at a discount. Russia will pay for overpriced access to Chinese finance, commerce, and markets. Yet if Russia loses the Ukraine war, goes broke, and as an international pariah is ostracized, then China will likely cut the smelly Russian albatross from its neck—in fear of new Western financial, cultural, and commercial clout.

Five. Americans are finally digesting just how destructive the humiliating flight from Afghanistan was. The catastrophe signaled to Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran that Western deterrence had died. 

No surprise that Russia sent missiles into a Ukrainian base near the Polish-NATO border. North Korea in January launched more missiles than in any month in its history. Iran sent missiles into Kurdistan. China daily announces it is just a matter of time until it absorbs Taiwan. The tens of billions of dollars of sophisticated weaponry sent to Ukraine by the West are still far less than what the U.S. military handed over to the terrorist Taliban.

Six. The Ukraine war did not cause inflation and record gas prices. Both were already spiking by early February 2022. 

The cause was the Biden Administration’s year-long radical expansion of the money supply at a time of post-COVID, pent-up consumer demand. It foolishly continued de facto zero-interest rates. Its generous COVID subsidies for the unemployed discouraged a return to work, while slashing U.S. oil and gas production and pipelines. 

Prior to Putin’s invasion, Joe Biden was quite publicly blaming greedy corporations, oil companies, COVID, and Donald Trump for the inflation he had birthed in 2021. And he was claiming undeniable high prices were only temporary or mostly an obsession of the elite.

Seven. Putin did not invade during the Trump tenure—although he had been more aggressive under previous American leadership with his prior attacks on Georgia, Ukraine, and Crimea. Russia stayed still when oil prices were low, fuel supplies in the West were plentiful, and the United States was confident. When the United States was neither bogged down in optional military interventions nor led by a president predictably accommodating to Russian aggressions, Russia stayed quiet. 

Putin took note of increased NATO and U.S. defense spending. He feared low global oil prices and record American oil and gas production. He was wary after unpredictable American strikes against enemies like ISIS, Abu al-Baghdadi, and the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. 

Eight. It is not “escalation” to send arms to Ukraine. The Russians far more aggressively supplied the North Koreans and North Vietnamese in their wars against America, without spreading the war globally. Pakistan, Syria, and Iran sent deadly weapons—many in turn supplied to them by Russia, North Korea, and China—to kill thousands of Americans during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

Nine. Putin may never fully absorb Ukraine as long as it can easily be supplied across its borders by four NATO countries. The United States deadlocked in the Korean War, lost the Vietnam War, was stalled in Iraq, and fled Afghanistan in part because its enemies were easily supplied by nearby border friends on the assumption the United States could not strike such abettors.

Ten. It is not “un-American” to point out that prior American appeasement under the Obama and the Biden Administrations explains not why Putin wished to go into Ukraine, but why he felt he could. It is not “treasonous” to say Ukraine and the United States previously should have stayed out of each other’s domestic affairs and politics—but still do not excuse Putin’s savage aggression. It is not traitorous to admit that Russia for centuries relied on buffer states between Europe—lost when its Warsaw Pact satellite members joined NATO after its defeat in the Cold War. But that reality also does not justify Putin’s savage attack.

We should not rehash the past but learn from it—and thereby ensure Putin is defeated now and deterred in the future.


Why Is Putin Talking About ‘De-Nazifying’ Ukraine?


When Vladimir Putin speaks of de-Nazification, what he really means 
is to Russify — to return to the age of the Tsars circa the 1860s.



Russian President Vladimir Putin has proffered, as one of his rationales for invading Ukraine, the need to “de-Nazify” the nation. Russian propaganda, some people sympathetic to it, and others perhaps well-meaning, points to the Azov Battalion in Ukraine as proof of that nation’s Nazi leanings.

To preface this discussion, it’s important to put into context what Putin means by de-Nazification. Both the Nazis under Hitler and the Soviet Union, especially in the early years under Lenin, emphasized national identity.

Because the Soviet Union sought to be a global communist empire, it anticipated a host of Soviet Socialist Republics (SSRs) for everybody: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and even Germany, Hungary, and the rest of Europe. Under this construct, the SSRs would be united in their international communist ideology, but unique in their national identity. In this, Lenin and later generations of Kremlin leaders, rightly surmised that the larger an empire is, the more leeway it must grant its provinces, at the risk of fomenting rebellion.

It was in this early time of the U.S.S.R.’s history that Ukraine saw a resurgence of its language, literature, and national identity after decades of Russification under the Tsars.

Thus, when Putin speaks of de-Nazification, what he really means is to Russify — to return to the age of the Tsars circa the 1860s, when Russia imposed a 40-year ban on the publication of books and newspapers in Ukrainian.

About Those Neo-Nazis

Putin’s insular view of what it means to be de-Nazified aside, there appear to be some actual armed neo-Nazis in Ukraine in the form of the Azov Battalion. What is the Azov Battalion and how did it come into being? Just as importantly, is it uniquely Ukrainian, or are there similar groups elsewhere?

In late 2013, as Ukraine’s fourth president, the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych, approached his fourth year of a five-year term, political unrest — known as the Euromaidan protests — grew out of a public desire for closer integration with the European Union rather than Russia. By February 2014, Yanukovych had fled to Russia while Russia was invading Crimea and sending Russian officers to the Donbas Basin provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, in Ukraine’s east.

In the chaos of 2014, the Ukrainian military, which had been left in disrepair and hobbled by corruption and cronyism, was wholly inadequate to the task of defending the nation. Crimea fell almost without a shot, while Donetsk and Luhansk were rapidly brought under de facto Russian control. Mariupol, the second-largest city in Donetsk with some 430,000 residents, was abandoned under pressure by Ukrainian government forces in May 2014.

But five weeks later, government forces, including the Azov Battalion, retook the city. Three months later, the Russian-backed separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic tried again to take Mariupol, and again, the Azov Battalion played a leading role in keeping the city under Ukrainian control.

At the time, the Azov Battalion’s insignia and the ideology of its leadership and rank-and-file wer openly neo-Nazi. The unit was also accused of war crimes, including using torture on their Russian-backed enemy. When confronted with the similarity between the Azov Battalion’s unit patch and that of the German Nazi 2nd SS Panzer Division, Azov officials denied the connection, claiming that their symbol is an abbreviation for the slogan “National Idea.” (In Ukrainian, the letters “H” and “I” are tilted to the right by 45 degrees.)

Chris Joyner, writing for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on March 4, quoted Prof. David Malet, an expert on transnational fighters with the School of Public Affairs at American University, who noted that as the Ukrainian military gained proficiency, it sought to tame the Azov Battalion and discourage foreign extremists from volunteering in Ukraine. Malet told Joyner, “A lot of Russian propaganda has focused on Nazi ties, trying to paint all the volunteers in Ukraine as Nazis, when again it’s probably been a pretty good mix of it on both sides.”

Of course, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish, as was the nation’s previous prime minister, Volodymyr Groysman. This led Hans Jakob-Schindler, senior director of the Counter Extremism Project, to sarcastically note of Putin’s claims of Ukraine as a Nazi state was, “apparently, a very new kind of Nazi that only a Russian understands how that works.”

Reinforcing Groysman’s view, the 450-member Ukrainian parliament, or Rada, only has one member from a party accused of neo-Nazi leanings. Svoboda, founded in 1991 at the dissolution of the Soviet Union, recruited skinheads and employed neo-Nazi symbols in the 1990s, only to later moderate. It reached its apex in the 2012 election, winning 10 percent of the vote and 37 seats. In the 2019 election, Svoboda received only 2 percent of the vote.

Returning to Malet, his contention that there’s a “good mix” of neo-Nazi-like groups in both Ukraine and Russia is important for context.

Putin has his own ultra-nationalist groups. For instance, in 2014, a Russian motorcycle gang with close Putin ties known as the “Night Wolves,” was used as the vanguard of the Crimea invasion — inaugurating a new era of so-called “hybrid warfare.” By streaming into Crimea, the Night Wolves showed that the Ukrainian central government was powerless. The gang’s ideology is based on contempt for a decadent and rootless West with its leader Alexander Zaldostanov admitting that “death to faggots” might be an appropriate motto.

The Rise of Neo-Paganism

In some sense, the rise of nationalism has paced the rise of globalism and the subsequent disorienting displacements of work and dilution of culture. One reaction to this can be seen in the concurrent rise of neo-paganism.

When I enlisted in the U.S. Army in 1983, I never saw pagan symbology. By the time I retired as a lieutenant colonel in the Army National Guard in 2007, it was noticeable, but not yet widespread. Interestingly, when I toured Folsom Prison in 2006 while a member of the California State Assembly, the prison chaplain told us the two fastest-growing faiths behind bars were Islam and Wicca, the latter being a revival of paganism.

There is a certain logic in this. Christianity is a global faith, making no distinction between people. Further, Christianity teaches forgiveness, to love one’s enemy, and to turn the other cheek. In the context of the profession of arms — or the dangerous reality of being incarcerated — Christianity may be seen by some as weak, whereas paganism can appeal to a warrior ethos.

Insofar as Ukraine and Putin’s Nazi accusations against the nation, the question is whether actual Nazis with real animus towards the Jewish people and other minorities can gain a foothold and use their power to persecute people. This prospect appears vanishingly small, and, if Ukraine survives as an independent nation, even less so.



U.S. Retail Sales Collapse as Govt and Media Attempt Denial That Economy Is Contracting


Move along, move along folks… please do not pay attention to the fire raging downtown, the suburbs are so nice this time of year… move along folks, look shiny Ukraine thing over there…

When retail sales are calculated, they are calculated in dollars.  Any recorded increase in retail sales that does not exceed the price increases in those items is factually reflecting a drop in units sold.

Ex. – if you sell 300 items at $1.00 each, you have $300 in sales.  If you sell 250 items at $1.25 each, you have $312.50 in sales.  Technically, you have a 4.1% increase in sales.  However, you have sold 17% less items (50 units).

When you are selling less stuff, your business (economy) is contracting, not expanding.  We have been in this contracting cycle (an actual production recession) since May/June of last year; however, the contraction has not been recognized because massive inflation is hiding it.  That, my friends, is the painful truth and it spells big trouble ahead.

(AP) […] Retail sales increased 0.3% after registering a revised 4.9% jump from December to January, fueled by wage gains, solid hiring and more money in banking accounts, according to the Commerce Department. January’s increase was the biggest jump in spending since last March, when American households received a final federal stimulus check of $1,400.

Business at furniture and home furnishing stores fell 1% in February, while sales at consumer electronics and appliance stores slipped 0.6%. General merchandise stores saw business down 0.2%, while online sales fell 3.7%. Restaurant sales rose 2.5% as shoppers shift more of their spending to services as the threat of COVID-19 fades. (read more)

Take the figures above and compare them to the sector inflation in February (Table-2, BLS Report)  – Just sticking to what is above:

  • Furniture prices rose 0.8% in Feb, total furniture sales dropped 1.0%
  • Electronics and appliances rose around 1.8% in Feb, sales dropped 0.6%
  • Online sales items rose in price around 0.5%, sales dropped 3.7%

.

What this reflects is an actual contraction much greater than the dollar drop in sales.   In most cases the unit sales dropped at a rate six times the price difference.  If you reverse engineer the math, the average is approximately a 15% reduction in durable good units purchased.

In a very macro perspective, that means the U.S. economy overall has approximately 15% too much labor in the sectors associated with the categories of goods that people have stopped purchasing.  This means people working in the durable goods sector, production, assembly, transportation, delivery and retail sales staff, are about to get laid off work, RIF’d and downsized.

Math is math, and inflation clouds the realities of the economy.

Ordinary people are prioritizing spending and watching their wages get chewed up by higher prices for food, energy, fuel and housing.  If you live in a predominantly working class or blue-collar area, when you start seeing contraction locally, you can be sure it will show up nationally.

Prepare for a long-duration recession, combined with increasingly costly energy costs.

However, do not distress yourself with dark imaginings.  Instead, empower yourself.  Take action today to evaluate your expenses and then ask how can I lower those expense costs by modifying my habits?  Think strategically about convenience -vs- costs -vs- how much your own time is worth.

You may not need to modify anything.  Or you may need to reevaluate priorities in order to help your kids or grandkids.

Be wise.

Be the hero for your family.

Be strong.

Be proactive.

Above all, be thankful to a loving God.  No weapon formed against you shall prosper.

Stay humble in your expectations, stay connected to your stabilized core self, and embrace fellowship.

This too shall pass.

#FJB