Saturday, March 5, 2022

Putin Invaded Because He Thought He Could

With a stronger American president, the Russian strongman certainly would have opted for a more pragmatic and cost-effective path.


Amidst the wartime propaganda filling airtime everywhere in the world, one question remains largely unanswered. Given the countless means Russia had at its disposal to coerce Ukraine into any desired outcome, why did Putin opt for a full military invasion of his neighbor? Neither the West’s good-versus-evil rhetoric nor Russia’s claims of “de-Nazification” of Ukraine are convincing arguments.

Ever since the war with Georgia in 2008, Russia’s military ventures have been very calculated and pragmatic, ensuring that no serious backlash would follow, always keeping diplomatic backchannels open for negotiating with supposed opponents, even when this did not fully align with its aggressive foreign policy rhetoric.

This recent invasion of Ukraine seems to have broken this pattern, but not for a lack of alternatives. Putin did not even bother waving the most potent weapon in his arsenal: the energy weapon. To halt the streaming of natural gas through the Ukraine would mean depriving the country of a revenue of almost $1.2 billion a year, roughly one percent of its entire GDP. This would have hit Ukraine’s barely recovering economy hard. Such a move would also put further pressure on Germany to certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and guarantee its energy security.

Putin also had the opportunity to establish a more robust de facto presence in Donetsk and Lugansk, without having to resort to a full-scale invasion. By incorporating the two regions’ infrastructures and economies into Russia’s, he could have replicated, at a slower pace, the Crimean scenario. This would have most likely incurred very little resistance from the international community.

Instead, Putin opted for the brutish approach of an all-out invasion, deploying massive force with the sole purpose of completely eradicating Ukraine’s military and forcing the Ukrainian government to capitulate.

Given the present and foreseeable repercussions, the rationale for Putin’s choice remains elusive, especially since there do not seem to be any rational long-term benefits to this invasion. What could explain these actions, though, is the permissiveness of the global environment in international politics.

Primarily, the one power that could have seriously given Russia pause, the United States, is currently not taken seriously abroad. This is not because of its inability to effectively project power, but rather due to this current administration’s image on the global scene. When serious global powers observe the humiliating way in which the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, they do not see leadership that has crisis management potential. When the non-Anglo-Saxon world looks with astonishment at the most recent earth-shattering reforms of the American military, which culminated in allowing servicewomen to wear fake eyelashes while on duty, or of NATO, with its 40-page manual on gender-inclusive language, they react with ridicule.

Such a transformation in the image of the world’s mightiest military force might possibly assist the current administration in pleasing its base domestically, but to the outside world, it invokes images of lunacy, weakness, and senility. It should come as no surprise that Putin did not see the United States as a current deterrent for his actions. Notice how he had no problem with current NATO bases along his borders, but rather the future expansion of the pact, which could only come to be with a more teeth-baring administration. Only then would it create a real security concern for Russia.

Finally, the state of the global economy cannot be discounted in Putin’s calculations. It continues to suffer from the effects of the pandemic. One of its most notable effects is the increase in energy prices and the pressure this puts on the supply chain, eventually trickling down to costs consumers incur. Decision-makers in Moscow certainly banked on Europe’s fear for its energy security, a replay of the annexation of the Crimea scenario. In the not-so-distant past, international observers reasonably assumed that, given the cost, the West did not deem Ukraine worth opposing Russia over.

Without an international context that made him feel comfortable enough to take such drastic action, the Russian strongman would have certainly opted for a more pragmatic and cost-effective path. Sadly, at this point, the only thing that remains to be seen is how this conflict can come to an end with the lowest possible human cost.


X22, And we Know, and more-March 5th

 



Evening. Here's tonight's news:


Trump Was Right Again: The U.S. Subsidizes Europeans’ Healthcare and Defense

And Joe Biden’s State of the Union pitch to lower drug prices won’t change that.


It took Russia’s naked aggression against Ukraine for Germany to admit that Donald Trump was right all along: Europe needs to stop relying on U.S. subsidies and spend more on its own defense. 

In a stunning policy reversal, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany would do what Trump was long urging and commit at least two percent of GDP to defense spending. 

That the United States has been subsidizing Europe’s defense is well known, thanks mainly to Trump’s harping on it. Another thing Trump thundered about, correctly, is that the United States also subsidizes Europe’s socialized healthcare. Pharmaceutical companies rely upon sky-high U.S. drug prices to render economically viable their ability to sell drugs in other countries. The United States thereby subsidizes socialized healthcare in the rest of the world, especially in the wealthiest European countries. 

Here’s how and why—and why Joe Biden’s State of the Union pledge to lower drug prices is dead on arrival. 

Drug development is expensive. To defray costs and turn a profit, most pharma companies rely upon the holy trinity of drug approval: The United States, Western Europe, and Japan—usually in that order, for compelling economic reasons.  

Why that order? The United States is nearly always first because the highest prices can be obtained there. Through their “market access” functions, pharma companies negotiate prices with the “payers”: large healthcare organizations, hospital systems and insurers. These discussions often involve byzantine structures of rebates and third parties known as pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs). But the main goal is always the same: to convince the payers to accept the highest price possible for U.S. sales. 

The Trump Administration briefly tried to enact “most-favored nation” status for the United States, under which American prices could be no higher than the lowest approved prices elsewhere. That proposal went nowhere fast. The same will happen with Biden’s State of the Union pledge to “let Medicare negotiate lower prices for prescription drugs.” Pharma companies donate a lot to politicians of both parties. Therefore, neither “most-favored nation” nor negotiated Medicare prices will happen. 

The pharma companies have no interest in changing the status quo, as their business models explicitly depend on high U.S. prices. Without being propped up by American consumers and taxpayers, the economic viability of selling drugs in Europe and beyond nosedives. The European health authorities, on behalf of their largely single-payer systems, know they have the upper hand with the drug companies, as everyone acknowledges that high U.S. prices are intended to subsidize lower prices in Europe. This, of course, props up their socialized medicine schemes by limiting costs. 

Japan, also a single-payer system, typically relies upon two European countries’ “reference pricing” in setting the Japan price. This is why Japan is typically the last part of the holy trinity to kick in—the Pentecost of the drug approval process. 

After the Europeans and Japanese set their prices, steeply discounted from the U.S. price, the pharma companies then may seek approval in other countries. Such approvals depend upon even more draconian pricing, as these countries typically use the “most favored nation” provision as an absolute ceiling. Some advanced countries’ pricing is so restrictive—Canada and South Korea, for example—that pharma companies often do not aggressively pursue drug approvals there. 

All the parties involved—the pharma companies, the health insurers, the PBMs, the U.S. government, foreign governments—know that the system ensures that the United States will always have the highest prices, and that reliance on this American subsidy is how drugs are made available to the rest of the world. To synergistically paraphrase both Solzhenitsyn and Bob Dole: We know it, they know it, we know they know it, and they know we know they know it. 

Pharma companies and their lobbyists in the United States will often cite the need to fund research and development of innovative new products as a reason and a justification for high prices, while also noting that the limited period of patent protection ensures a never-ending supply of off-patent generics at bargain prices. Tinkering with the system threatens to slow down or even stop this virtuous cycle of innovation. 

No person or entity has been more aggressive in advancing this pharma shibboleth than the industry’s principal trade association, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA). In a section on its website titled “Why Washington Shouldn’t Copy The Flawed Pricing Policies of Other Countries”nothing subtle there!—PhRMA rails against government attempts to set U.S. prices as well as those who believe such price controls would not harm patients and innovation. “Reality,” PhRMA informs us, “tells a far different story.”  

PhRMA notes that the United States far outpaces Europe in research and development spending, a sharp reversal from previous decades. Moreover, PhRMA continues, Americans enjoy quicker and broader access to new medicines, leading to better health outcomes; for example, “the five-year survival rate for all cancers is 42% higher for men and 15% higher for women in the United States than in Europe.”  

In short, says PhRMA: “The United States currently leads the world in access to new medicine because it was designed to be that way.” (Emphasis added.) In other words: The system works. Don’t screw it up! 

All well and good—and largely true and perhaps even, yes, virtuous. But here is what remains unspoken: just as with defense spending, the United States, through its high drug prices, subsidizes and thus props up socialized healthcare systems in other countries—often very wealthy ones such as Germany, France, and Japan.  

Don’t hold your breath waiting for an invasion by Russia or a State of the Union pledge to prompt the beneficiaries of this well-oiled machine to impart this nugget of truth; although if you do so and pass out as a result, there are drugs for that.


Has the Joe Biden Comeback Started?


Bonchie reporting for RedState 

Joe Biden has had one of the most disastrous first years of a presidential term in US history. Yeah, Abraham Lincoln had the Civil War and George W. Bush had 9/11, but there’s a difference between events being forced on a president and a president causing events.

Biden managed to completely screw up the response to COVID despite being handed vaccines upon taking office. More people ended up dying on his watch than under the Trump administration. Then there are the foreign policy boondoggles, from Afghanistan to what’s currently happening with Russia. But if that wasn’t bad enough, Biden also turned the border into a humanitarian disaster. I could keep going, but you get the point.

Things have not gone well, but is that all about to change? That’s the assertion from CNN’s Chris Cillizza, who believes the president is at the beginning stages of a comeback.

I’d quote the article, but there’s really nothing groundbreaking in it. The evidence used to support the idea that Biden is on the comeback trail boils down to a single NPR poll which has the president at 47 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. No doubt, that’s a far better number than we’ve seen in the past. Just a week prior, four straight polls dropped showing Biden at 38, 38, 41, and 38 percent approval.

Of course, even dealing with the most recent period of polling, we can make some apples-to-apples comparisons. Yes, that NPR poll has Biden at 47 percent approval with a -4 disapproval spread, but two other polls released at the same time (Rasmussen and Reuters) have him at 42 and 43 percent respectively. The disapproval numbers on those polls are really bad as well, with spreads of -13 and -11.

Enough of the data nerd stuff, though. Take a look around and see if you think the current political environment is primed for the president to rebound? Gas prices are exploding, Russia is still invading Europe, and inflation is absolutely out of control. Biden’s public appearances also continue to be a disaster. A single outlier poll is hardly proof that he’s suddenly overcome those dynamics.

With that said, I will admit that it’s possible Biden gets a slight, temporary bump in the face of Russia’s aggression. Still, I think the idea that the president is marching back into the good graces of the broader electorate is wishful thinking. We’d need a lot more data points to even begin to entertain that thought. CNN’s rush to push that narrative is partisan, and that’s fine, but they should admit that’s all it is.



Faced With TheHorrific Results Of Their Ideas, ….

Faced With The Horrific Results Of Their Ideas, Leftists Are Backpedaling With All Their Might

homeless

It would appear that leftists don’t actually like a lot of the radical policies they have been advocating for since the beginning of the lockdowns and the death of George Floyd in spring 2020. From homelessness to crime to Covid policies, the left is backtracking on much of its platform in the face of disastrous results and frustration from rank-and-file liberals. Recent developments in our nation’s capital provide some of the most dramatic examples. 

Cities across the country are taking a more aggressive stance on homeless encampments in response to residents’ complaints, including Washington, D.C. An early February poll conducted by The Washington Post found that three-fourths of Washingtonians support the district’s plan to clear the camps of homeless persons that now proliferate across the city. 

That the American Civil Liberties Union and even some D.C. council members oppose Mayor Muriel E. Bowser’s cleanups have not stopped their enforcement. Bowser has quite a mandate for this: the number of city residents who want these camps cleared does not substantially change based on respondents’ race, and is above 70 percent for white, black, Hispanic, and Asian residents.

That the district is pursuing this policy with substantial local support is a bit ironic, given that so many prominent leftist organizationslocal leftist leaders, and Democratic politicians have been trying for more than a year to protect these encampments. This included Ann Marie Staudenmaier, wife of Maryland gubernatorial candidate Tom Perez, who last year advocated for homeless camps in the district to be permitted and protected. “Don’t evict them from the only place that they have to call home,” she urged.

Perhaps it has something to do with how large numbers of homeless persons affect the cleanliness, security, and attraction of neighborhoods. A separate recent WaPo article cited residents who noted homeless persons in the camp have harassed them. One D.C. resident said downtown is “not pleasant” and that the ubiquity of the encampments threatens the security of local residents. 

Although many on the left would likely grimace to say it, national trends on curbing these camps indicate a significant percentage of the rest of America feels the same way.

Refunding the Police

Mayors of America’s largest cities, once responsive to calls to defund the police, have done a dramatic reversal in response to local frustration with higher crime rates. Now “refund the police” has become the cry of many liberal residents. 

In D.C., residents’ opinions on crime and police have experienced this shift, given increased crime and murder rates in the city since 2020. According to a recent WaPo poll, a sizable majority (59 percent) now agree that increasing the number of police officers patrolling communities would reduce the amount of violent crime in D.C.

“The share of Washingtonians who say they are not safe from crime has risen to 30 percent this year from 22 percent in November 2019 and is the highest in more than two decades of Post polls,” reports the WaPo.

This is quite a change from the “defund the police” initiatives city residents — and various activist groups — so loudly endorsed after the death of George Floyd. The D.C. government in 2020 supported measures in June 2022 to cut $15 million from the police department budget. At the time, the police chief warned this could lead to the loss of hundreds of officers and that underfunding training and equipment might result in officers using more excessive force.

Thankfully, D.C. is not alone in wanting to refund the police. As NBC reported in February, Democratic politicians are calling the “defund the police” movement “dead” and mayors in San Francisco, New York, and Chicago are “moving to increase police budgets and end ‘the reign of criminals.’”

Surrendering to Pandemic Fatigue

Democratic states are also ending many Covid restrictions in the face of rising complaints from their constituents. Consider D.C. Mayor Bowser’s mid-February announcement that she would lift the city’s vaccine requirement for businesses and “dial back” the city’s indoor mask rules. This announcement followed a number of states — including many governed by Democrats — that have also eased their restrictions as polls come back showing their rising unpopularity. Now D.C.’s party scene is “returning to normal,” reports the WaPo, even though coronavirus case counts in and around Washington remain “high.”

This is a remarkable and speedy shift, especially considering D.C. had some of the most strict Covid restrictions in the country. Perhaps the District’s dramatic about-face has something to do with widespread annoyance with pandemic restrictions, even among liberal voters. Perhaps it results from the rising tide of Democratic politicians listening to their constituencies despite “public health guidance” claiming the country is moving too fast in loosening the rules. 

Perhaps all of these changes also relate to the fact that the District of Columbia is no longer experiencing the population boom and gentrification that have defined the last couple of decades. The capital’s population declined by 2.9 percent from 2020 to 2021, according to the Census Bureau. Living in an increasingly dangerous, filthy nanny-city is apparently not that appealing, even to the District’s majority leftist population. This has been part of a broader national trend as people across the nation in 2021 left Democratic-run states.

Mugged by Reality

To borrow a phrase from the late Irving Kristol, D.C. residents (and liberals across the country) have been mugged by reality — and in some cases actually mugged. Perhaps living in a lefty utopia where the homeless camp wherever they like, undisturbed by a defunded police force, with fickle and irrational health-related restrictions isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. 

Democrat D.C. residents, like the rest of Americans, don’t actually like their public spaces overrun by homeless persons, their neighborhoods suffering increased violent crime rates, or their cities stuck in a cycle of never-ending draconian public safety regulations.

What this all means is that, thankfully, certain activist narratives that threatened all Americans have lost considerable steam. It also means these policies are likely political liabilities in upcoming elections. Perhaps it also shows there are certain things that all Americans can still agree on.



Spygate Figure Whose Attorney Outed Him To The New York Times Now Wants His Name Hidden In Court Documents

Because the special counsel’s office did not identify Rodney Joffe, either by name or in all but name, John Durham has nothing to answer for.


No longer able to control the media narrative about Rodney Joffe’s role in peddling the Alfa Bank hoax to the FBI and CIA, his attorneys now seek to silence Special Counsel John Durham. That revelation came from a brief docket entry in a federal district court earlier this week documenting a sealed motion to intervene that Joffe’s lawyers had filed in the criminal case against Michael Sussman, in which they asked for references to “Tech Executive-1” to be expunged from the court filings.

The special counsel’s office indicted Sussmann on September 16, 2021, charging the former Clinton campaign lawyer with one count of lying to FBI General Counsel James Baker when Sussmann provided Baker information purporting to show a secret communication channel between the Trump organization and the Russian-based Alfa Bank. Specifically, the indictment charged that “Sussmann lied about the capacity in which he was providing the allegations to the FBI,” with Sussmann falsely stating “he was not doing his work on the aforementioned allegations ‘for any client.’”

According to the indictment, Sussmann was acting “on behalf of specific clients, namely, (i) a U.S. technology industry executive (‘Tech Executive-1’) at a U.S. Internet company (‘Internet Company-1’), and (ii) the Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign (the ‘Clinton Campaign’).”

At no point in the indictment, or in later court filings, did Durham name Joffe as Tech Executive-1, or even for that matter name the “U.S. Internet company” at which Joffe worked. Nonetheless, in a transparent attempt to frame the narrative about his role in pushing the Alfa Bank hoax, Joffe’s attorney confirmed that his client was “Tech Executive-1” in an interview with The New York Times.

The New York Times Helps Both Ways

The Times’ chief Clinton spinner, Charlie Savage, along with Adam Goldman, then provided Joffe’s legal team a PR assist in the September 30, 2021 article, “Trump Server Mystery Produces Fresh Conflict.” With a subhead proclaiming that internet researchers were pushing back on suggestions in the Sussman indictment that they did not believe their own Alfa Bank research, the Times article quoted Joffe’s attorney, Steven A. Tyrrell, as he framed his client as merely a concerned tech expert.

“His client had a duty to share the information with the F.B.I.,” the Times reported Tyrrell as stating. Savage and Goldman then aided that take by noting that Joffe in 2013 “received the F.B.I. Director’s Award for helping crack a cybercrime case, and retired this month from Neustar, another information services company.”

In addition to Joffe’s attorneys outing him in the Times article, attorneys for Joffe’s colleagues in the Alfa Bank “research” all went public on their clients’ behalf too. “The indictment’s ‘Originator-1’is April Lorenzen, chief data scientist at the information services firm Zetalytics,” her attorney Michael J. Connolly confirmed. And “the indictment’s ‘Researcher-1’ is another computer scientist at Georgia Tech, Manos Antonakakis,” with “Researcher-2” confirmed as David Dagon by his lawyer.

The Times article then proceeded to push the narrative that the researchers all stood by the Alfa Bank theory, with Joffe’s attorney claiming their research “culminated in the well-supported conclusions that were ultimately delivered to the F.B.I.” Jody Westby and Mark Rasch, lawyers for Dagon, told the Times that “the Alfa Bank results ‘have been validated and are reproducible. The findings of the researchers were true then and remain true today; reports that these findings were innocuous or a hoax are simply wrong.”

Mark E. Schamel, the lawyer for the third researcher, Antonakakis, told the Times “his client had provided ‘feedback on an early draft of data that was cause for additional investigation.’” Schamel added, according to the Time, that “their hypothesis” “to this day, remains a plausible working theory.”

PR Strategy Backfires

Confirming his identity to the Times and then going on the offensive likely seemed a strong strategy to Joffe’s attorney, but once lawyers confirmed his identity, and those of Dagon, Antonakakis, and Lorenzen, journalists could conduct their own research, rather than merely serving as scribes to the self-interested lawyers.

That’s complicated matters because at times Joffe communicated with the researchers via email at Dagon and Antonakakis’ Georgia Tech addresses, and Georgia law takes a very favorable view to transparency via its Right to Know law. Various Right to Know requests have revealed several details at odds with the preferred narrative.

For instance, while Antonakakis’ lawyer told Time the Alfa Bank “hypothesis” “to this day, remains a plausible working theory,” emails obtained by a Right to Know request show “Researcher 1,” as Antonakakis called himself in the email, “never supported the article.”

The Federalist asked Antonakakis’ attorney how he could reconcile his statement to the Times that the hypothesis of the white paper “that there are hidden communications between Trump and Alfa Bank” “to this day, remains a plausible working theory” with Antonakakis’ separate private statement that he “never supported the article.” His attorney did not respond to the request for clarification.

Another email from Antonakakis from August 20, 2016 to Lorenzen, with Joffe copied, had the Georgia Tech researcher saying “the conclusion here is that there is no conclusion.” Later that day Joffe would respond, “fuck <sigh>” in an email to Antonakakis concerning the first analysis, a seeming reference to the Alfa research given that Lorenzen and Dagon were both copied on the email.

A Right to Know request also revealed that Antonakakis’ attorney viewed Joffe’s “‘fuck’ email response” as “indicating that the preliminary analysis did not produce a definite answer,” but he claimed that doesn’t mean communications didn’t occur.

When Things Are Good, Go To NYT. When Bad, Sue

In addition to these emails, others provided in response to a Right to Know request to Georgia Tech document anti-Trump vitriol that also doesn’t serve Joffe’s PR push. Such growing negative attention, coupled with the special counsel’s continued use of legal filings in the Sussmann case to detail how the Alfa Bank hoax (and the related Russian cell phone canard) went down, provide a backdrop to Joffe’s motion that seeks to force Durham to remove references to Tech Executive-1 in past (and likely future) court filings.

Although Joffe’s motion is sealed, the docket entry notes he presents a constitutional claim. That constitutional claim is likely premised on the due process clause of the Constitution, as courts have found due process violations when the government names an unindicted individual in an indictment or later court filings.

“The fundamental requirement of due process is the opportunity to be heard ‘at a meaningful time and in a meaningful manner,” precedent teaches. Yet a named, but unindicted, individual “is not afforded a forum in which he can attempt to vindicate himself.” Expungement of the individual’s name is appropriate in those circumstances, absent an important governmental interest to identifying the individual.

Joffe’s Attorney Named Him Publicly First

The problem for Joffe, however, is that the government did not name him. To the contrary, the special counsel’s office complied with Department of Justice guidelines that provide that “federal prosecutors should remain sensitive to the privacy and reputation interests of uncharged third-parties,” and neither name them or provide an “unnecessarily-specific description” of the individual.

For instance, the guidelines explain, a third party can be referred to generically in most cases such as “a Member of Congress,” as opposed to “Senator X.” And uncharged third parties can be referred to as “an individual.”

In this case, Durham’s team used generic descriptions and neither named Joffe nor provided an “unnecessarily-specific description.” Also, it was not Durham who outed Joffe, but his attorney when he confirmed Joffe’s identity as Tech Executive-1 to The New York Times as part of an apparent PR move.

While it is true that by the time Joffe’s attorney confirmed his identity it was widely understood that Joffe was Tech Executive-1, that belief came not from Durham’s indictment but from internet sleuths who had been following the Alfa Bank civil lawsuit. In fact, one Twitter investigator who goes by Fool Nelson, along with assists from another using the moniker Walkafyreidentified Joffe, Dagon, and Lorenzen as responsible for the Alfa Bank research even before the indictment dropped.

Because the special counsel’s office did not identify Joffe, either by name or in all but name, Durham has nothing to answer for. Whether the court will agree, however, is another question. The court may believe that now that Joffe’s identity is known, future filings must omit any reference to Tech Executive-1, or maybe even be filed under seal.

The latter solution, however, raises other constitutional concerns, namely the First Amendment right to access to criminal court proceedings, which Durham’s team will likely stress in its response to Joffe’s motion. That response is due today, but given the court ordered the special counsel’s office to file it under seal, we will be without further insights until the court issues its decision.


Government Grew by 24,000 Employees in February

Government Grew by 24,000 Employees in February

(CNSNews.com) - Government in the United States grew by 24,000 employees in February, according to numbers released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In January, government employed 22,174,000. In February, that increased to 22,198,000.

Over the year--from February 2021 to February 2022--government employment in the United States grew from 21,805,000 to 22,198,000, an increase of 393,000.

Government employment hit an all-time peak of 22,879,000 in February 2020, according to the historical data published by the BLS. Since then, it has dropped by 681,000.

The largest number of government employees work for local governments. From January to February, local government employees grew from 14,060,000 to 14,081,000—an increase of 21,000.

Local government employment hit an historic peak in January 2020 at 14,665,000. Since then it has dropped by 584,000.

State government employment grew from 5,239,000 in January to 5,242,000 in February—an increase of 3,000.

State government employment hit an historic peak of 5,310,000 in February 2020. Since then it has dropped by 68,000.

Federal government employment held steady at 2,875,000 in January and February of this year.

Federal employment hit an all-time peak of 3,416,000 in May 2010 (a Census year). The current federal employment level of 2,875,000 is 541,000 below that Census year peak.


German anti-aircraft missiles offered to Ukraine not usable: Report

 

BERLIN

The German government had to backtrack on Friday on the planned delivery of 2,700 East German-era Strela anti-aircraft missiles to the Ukrainian army, local media reported.

According to a report published by the weekly Der SPIEGEL news magazine, a large proportion of the Strela missiles in the German army depots are not only completely outdated, they are also no longer usable.

A maximum of 2,000 of the rockets in the troops' warehouses can still be used, according to the report.

The German army had already taken the East German-era system out of the troops' operations in 2014 "for security reasons", according to a confidential note on the weapon system.

Since then, the wooden boxes with the weapons that are now to be delivered to Ukraine have become so moldy that soldiers are only allowed to enter the storage facilities with protective clothing.

German Economic Minister Robert Habeck announced on Thursday morning that Germany wanted to deliver a total of 2,700 Strela missiles to Ukraine in addition to 1,000 rocket-propelled grenades and 500 Stinger missiles.

The ministry has already approved the delivery of anti-aircraft missiles. The only thing missing is a positive vote by the Federal Security Council, which is a must to export arms.

Germany had switched course in the Ukraine crisis last week by deciding to equip the Ukrainian military with heavy weapons in its war with Russia.  

"The Russian attack on Ukraine marks a turning point. It threatens our entire post-war order," said Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a speech to the German parliament.

"In this situation, it is our duty to do our best to support Ukraine in its defense against (Russian President) Vladimir Putin's invading army. Germany stands closely on Ukraine's side," he added.

 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-crisis/german-anti-aircraft-missiles-offered-to-ukraine-not-usable-report/2524178    





MSM Catching On, Now They Call It Food Protectionism as Hungary, Argentina, Moldova and Turkey Ban Grain Exports


Again, they are blaming this on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but the origin of the issue goes back much further.

Last year, CTH was one of a small number of people talking about the very real possibility of food shortages due to the cumulative effects from regulatory COVID mitigation and the fracturing of the food supply chain that government intervention created. {Go Deep}

What we are witnessing now is not as much attached to the Ukraine crisis, as it is the continued ripple effects in that same supply chain.

The current grain issues are an outcome of a major supply chain disruption on the manufactured and processed food side, which is now exacerbated by higher replenishment costs and lower yields. Fertilizer costs have skyrocketed due to energy cost increases.

It is a perfect storm.

Without the Ukraine crisis surfacing, the grain (wheat, corn, soybean) and supply chain issues were already going to be a problem, and many of these current mitigation efforts -wrongly being attributed to Ukraine- would have taken placed without any regional conflict.  That’s why we predicted these issues last year, long before Ukraine-Russia was in the headlines.

The thing to keep in mind is that some smart governments, especially those nations where the government controls and monitors the food industry, can see these issues long before they surface.  If CTH could see these multinational food issues last year, you know the governments of China and Russia could also see them coming.  Some might even argue they gamed out the problem and are taking advantage of it right now. {Go Deep}

It’s interesting to see the media use the term “food protectionism” instead of a ‘food war‘, but really what we are now seeing in Europe is positioning amid territorial regions to keep food available.   In North America (Canada, U.S. and Mexico), we are blessed with several crop cycles each year.  Some nations only get one or two, we have at least three, but we still need the fertilizer.

(Bloomberg) — Governments around the world are taking steps to safeguard domestic food supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled trade and sent prices of key staples soaring.

Hungary is banning grain exports, its agriculture minister told television channel RTL on Friday. Argentina and Turkey also made moves this week to increase their control over local products. And Moldova, albeit a small shipper, temporarily halted exports of wheat, corn and sugar from this month.

Protectionist measures — which already picked up in recent years as the Covid-19 pandemic sparked worries about local supplies and high prices — could spell more bad news for global food trade. The war in Ukraine has brought crop shipments from much of the crucial Black Sea region to a halt, heightening fears of shortages of grain and sunflower oil.

[…]  Argentina, a major grain shipper, is creating a mechanism to guarantee wheat supplies for local millers and tame pasta prices. Top flour exporter Turkey boosted the agriculture ministry’s authority over exports of an array of goods, allowing it to make “periodical arrangements” if needed.

Hungary’s ban takes effect immediately, and a government decree will soon be published, its agriculture minister said. The country had sold about 127,000 tons of soft-wheat abroad so far this season.

Elsewhere in Europe, Bulgaria — a much larger exporter — is working on a system to buy grain that can be used to meet its population’s needs, the government said after a meeting with producer lobby groups on Friday. (read more)

Y’all know my lengthy position on this. I have long said that farmland, food, source material, manufacturing and processing, should be considered a national security issue.  I do not think the federal government needs to get involved too much, but I do think states should be permitted to control or limit foreign ownership, investment and Big Ag corporate monopoly controls.

It amazes me to see the so-called “experts” that we rely upon, completely incapable of understanding the laws of unintended consequence.

Each seemingly small issue creates another small issue, which creates another small issue, which ultimately pokes holes in the supply.  Poke enough holes in enough small categories from manufactured condiments to manufactured drinks, to manufactured cereals, pasta, grains, soups, pet foods, and the complex food processing system overall begins to show the larger problem.

It’s a system collapse by a thousand paper cuts – from the fork all the way back to the field.