Thursday, November 4, 2021

Low Characters in Ludicrous Situations

Are we living through the “dark” or “black” comedy that elite opinion, which likes to smirk but hates happy endings, loves to wallow in?


Reflecting on the unfolding disaster that is our social and political life in the United States during the consulship of Biden, I cannot help but think of Aristotle’s description of the structure of Greek tragedy. Obviously, the parallels are not exact. For one thing, tragedy as Aristotle understood it was a quick affair, its action over within a single day. Our national tragedy, by contrast, seems to lumber on indefinitely. 

Then there is the question of the character of the protagonist. Aristotle’s chap is “a man who is not eminently good and just, yet whose misfortune is brought about not by vice or depravity, but by some error or frailty.” Sound like Joe Biden? Almost, maybe, but not really. Rudy Giuliani was not talking through his hat when he invoked the specter of the “Biden crime family,” as the words “laptop,” “China,” and “10 percent for the big guy” remind us. 

There are many other differences between tragedy in Aristotle’s sense and the disaster we are suffering through. Still, when I think about the development Aristotle traces from ἁμαρτία (the tragic flaw) through ἀναγνώρισις (recognition) to περιπέτεια (the sudden reversal of fortune) to καταστροφή, the “catastrophe” that ties up the loose ends and consummates the action, I think “We’re somewhere on that road,” though exactly where is hard to say. Have we achieved the enlightenment of recognition yet? I am not at all sure about that. 

Signs of the sudden reversal of fortune are all around us, though evidence of any impending catharsis (κάθαρσις) is exceedingly meager. Why? Perhaps it’s because the emotions through which the purgation is supposed to take place are not yet fully present and accounted for. Aristotle said that the emotions of pity (ἔλεος) and fear (φόβος) are the motors of tragic fulfillment. My sense is that there is plenty of fear abroad. Pity? Not so much. (Although, thinking about it, maybe there is plenty of pity around us, too. “Pity,” Aristotle says in the Rhetoric, “may be defined as a feeling of pain at an apparent evil, destructive or painful, which befalls one who does not deserve it, and which we might expect to befall ourselves . . . and moreover to befall us soon.”) 

At the end of the day, though, I wonder whether we’re caught in a tragedy at all. I have no doubt that we are hurtling towards a catastrophe (in the Greek sense) that will be, well, catastrophic (in the modern sense). But Aristotle insists that tragedy is about grave matters and noble characters. Comedy, he says, is about low or mean characters and trades in the ludicrous or ridiculous. Isn’t that where we are now? Have we embarked on a new genre, featuring low characters in ludicrous situations who ultimately come, and bring everyone around them, to a disastrous end? Or perhaps it is not so new, but is just the “dark” or “black” comedy that elite opinion, which likes to smirk but hates happy endings, so loves to wallow in? 

That, frankly, seems closer to the case, and were we Chinese perhaps we would call it “comedy with tragic characteristics” (or maybe vice-versa). The ground underneath us is too spongy to say for sure. Anyway, I am impressed by contributions of linguistic slippage to our predicament. In part, it is a matter of cowardice: of refusing, for fear of social obloquy, to call things by what Orwell called “their real names.” Or maybe—and here again Orwell is a major authority—it is a matter of trying to subvert reality by linguistic legerdemain? 

It used to be that we knew, well enough, what words like “man” and “woman” meant. We even knew that “justice” was one sort of thing, “social justice” a disingenuous counterfeit. We no longer know those things or, rather, we know them alright, but we are afraid to say so. Once again, George Orwell is a good guide through these politically tinged linguistic thickets (I expanded upon this idea recently in this column).

To alter my authorities, let me recall that famous scene in Through the Looking Glass in which Alice has an exchange with Humpty Dumpty about semantics, identity, and power.

“I don’t know what you mean by ‘glory’,” Alice said.

Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. “Of course you don’t—till I tell you. I meant ‘there’s a nice knock-down argument for you!’ ”

“But ‘glory’ doesn’t mean “a nice knock-down argument,’” Alice objected.

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”

“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”

I wonder what Humpty Dumpty’s pronouns are? 

In any event, we can see that he makes for a very modern, even Machiavellian, sort of omelet. “The question is, which is to be master—that’s all.” Could Callicles or Thrasymachus or Lenin put it any better? Could Anthony Fauci or Merrick Garland? 

Listen up! This column comes with a free racing tip. Glenn Youngkin is going to win the Virginia gubernatorial race Tuesday (or next Friday or whenever it is that the Democrats stop voting and concede the race). But even before the starting bell there has been lots of ludicrous, not to say pathetic, hanky-panky going on in the paddock. Humpty Dumpty would have approved of the effrontery though deplored the stupidity.

 Just a day or two back, people associated with the Terry McAuliffe campaign assembled a small group of men (and one woman) holding tiki torches in front of a “Youngkin for Gov” bus and shouting “We’re all in for Glenn.” The tableau was supposed to shout “white supremacist.” Indeed, it transpired that the Lincoln Project (motto: “behind every boy there’s a manly man”) organized the stunt. So what the photo really shouted was “look how desperate we are!” (and also how stupid: one of the supposed white supremacists was black). McAuliffe campaign communications director Jen Goodman instantly tweeted that the picture was “disgusting and disqualifying.” But then the fabricated nature of the photo was exposed and the story collapsed. Goodman deleted her tweet, but the internet never forgets: her original declaration of outrage was clipped, widely circulated, and preserved for posterity and ridicule. 

So, I am not at all sure how to categorize the performance we are sitting through. Not pastoral or pastoral-comical, surely, but maybe (apologies, Polonius) “tragical-historical, tragical-comical-historical-pastoral”? 

In any event, whether or not we’ve achieved any serious “recognition” or enlightenment, can that sudden change of fortune be far behind? The catastrophe will not be nice, but the catharsis will doubtless be something worth waiting for.


X22, Christian Patriot News, and more-Nov 4th


 



Evening folks. Here's tonight's news:


Trump Nearing the Crossroads - VDH

As 2024 approaches, what will Trump do?


The Left may not wish to admit it, but the fortunes of a once moribund Donald Trump of January 2021 have now largely recovered—even before the stunning gubernatorial victory of Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia. 

How and why? 

One, Joe Biden did not, as dishonestly advertised, prove to be good Ol’ “Lunch bucket” Joe. He was no moderate from Scranton. Instead, Biden has served as the clueless gun barrel through which hard-core leftists fired off the most unpopular agenda in memory. 

Open borders, huge deficits, the Afghanistan catastrophe, looming stagflation, empty shelves, bottlenecked ports, soaring energy prices, toxic critical race theory, the disastrous previews of the Green New Deal, a weaponized federal government, and the addled decline of Biden himself have done more than just collapse support for the president and his policies.  

More importantly, Biden’s string of catastrophes endangers the very stuff of life, from the ability to afford gas to finding goods on the shelves. 

Two, for 10 months, Donald Trump has been stripped of all his social network outlets. The progressive Silicon monopolies thought they had silenced the once omnipresent Trump. 

But their muzzles had unintended consequences. The less Trump was on social media, the more the public remembered his good policies rather than his controversial tweets. 

Three, Donald Trump was as responsible or not responsible for COVID-19 deaths as is Joe Biden. On Biden’s watch, more have died each day on average from the disease than during Trump’s tenure from the start of the pandemic. 

Contrary to Biden’s ungracious boasts, Trump is to be credited with the successful vaccination rollout. And the Florida model of Governor Ron DeSantis, not the New York and California model of ongoing near-complete lockdowns, did far less economic and social damage with no more—and in some cases fewer deaths per capita

Four, Trump’s low point—the January 6 Capitol rampage—was not, as the Left propagandized, a preplanned conspiratorial “armed insurrection,” and the evidence against that narrative is now becoming apparent. 

The FBI found no conspiracy at the heart of the violent entry into the Capitol. 

No one inside the Capitol itself was arrested for the use or possession of a firearm. Officer Sicknick tragically died of natural causes a day after the riot, not at the hands of Trump supporters as was claimed. 

The initial headlines of five dead due to the “insurrection” were completely false. Four died of either natural or accidental causes. The fifth, the diminutive, unarmed military veteran Ashli Babbitt, died due to the questionable decision of an officer to shoot an unarmed suspect. 

Five, Trump’s supposed rantings often proved prescient rather than mad. Radical iconoclasts really did move on to attacking the monuments and statues of Jefferson, Lincoln, and Washington. 

The Russian collusion hoax really was a massive fraud. The only collusion was between the media, Hillary Clinton’s campaign, and the FBI to destroy a Republican presidential campaign. 

Joe Biden’s family really was engaged in a grifting enterprise that used Biden’s office to leverage quid pro quo money from foreign governments. 

Hunter Biden’s laptop was really his own—and not a product of “Russian disinformation.”   

As a result, a resurgent Trump is considering another presidential run. Most Republicans want him to run. They welcome a return of his successful pre-pandemic policies and a leader who does not fear the unhinged Left. They believe Joe Biden reversed the Trump agenda and brought misery. Trump promises to restore it and bring back prosperity. 

But Youngkin showed that he could push Trump’s populist agenda, keep the MAGA base, and yet also win back independents—mainly as a Trump-like candidate, but one who gets even with, rather than mad at, the Left. 

So, at the crossroad of the Republican pathway back to power, there are plenty of known unknowns. 

Would possible presidential candidates like Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis, former Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo advance the MAGA agenda, but without the fireworks and distractions? 

Or would they prove similar to a once impressive Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker—who nonetheless fizzled on the 2016 campaign stage?  

Or would a battle-scarred and wizened veteran Trump now outsmart rather than merely outrage his enemies by picking his targets more carefully? 

Can Trump, like Youngkin, win back suburbanites and independents to achieve a 51 percent majority—something no Republican presidential candidate has achieved in 33 years? 

Or could his less carnivorous rivals of the status quo be able to keep the Trump base from sitting out the election as they did in 2008 and 2016? 

Would Trump ever be content with becoming the senior statesman basking in the credit of rebooting the Republican Party from a stereotyped wealthy white corporate party into a populist-nationalist movement of the middle class of all races and ethnicities?  

Or will Trump redo 2016, bulldoze to the nomination, go for the jugular of the now hard-left Democratic Party, clobbering his way to a 2016-like Electoral College victory—or a defeat that others who copied his agendas might have avoided?


Biden’s Border Agenda Has Now Reached Peak Derangement

The administration’s policies are not compassionate. They are part of a deranged agenda meant to slowly erode this nation’s resources by importing much of the world’s poverty problem.


Those who supported the ascension of Joe Biden to the White House could be forgiven for acting out of weariness and naïveté. They were tired of the political bloodsport from the previous four years and were promised a return to “normalcy” and competence. On the border issue alone, however, this administration has created buyers’ remorse on a grand scale as it implements hard-Left, radical policies that are permanently changing the country for the worse.

The most recent initiative to derail American exceptionalism is the move to terminate the Trump-era Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), which include the “Remain in Mexico” policy. In a memo announcing his intent to terminate the program, Department of Homeland Security Director Alejandro Mayorkas included among the verbiage in his four-page document a clause saying that “I recognize that MPP likely contributed to reduced migratory flows.”

Talk about burying the lead! 

For any other DHS secretary, reducing migratory flows and preventing the kind of chaos we saw recently with the Haitian migrants under a bridge in Del Rio, Texas, would be a good thing. It would suggest a plan to maintain stability in our country and deter others from making the perilous journey.

In Bidenworld, however, Mayorkas got his job specifically because establishing border security is not on his radar. He operates more like the United Nations high commissioner for human rights, not the individual responsible for the federal agency in charge of protecting the homeland of the United States. His tattered credibility continues to sink with his bizarre dedication to repeating thelie that “the border is closed,” when all visual and statistical evidence points to the opposite conclusion. Will Biden fire him for gross incompetence? Of course not, because Mayorkas is doing exactly what he was put in place to do.

If Biden’s purported compassion for the world’s huddled masses were applied unconditionally, he could at least be credited with consistency. Alas, his Albert Schweitzer shtick ends when his party’s political interests are not served. It is the only explanation for the contrast between his “save the children” talk when it comes to Central America and Mayorkas slamming the door shut on oppressed Cubans.

The difference? Refugees from the Northern Triangle are considered more likely to vote with Democrats. Cubans have been living under the boot of a hardline Communist dictatorship for generations and are wise to the progressive lure of cradle-to-grave benefits. Sorry Cubans, the lofty rhetoric about saving the impoverished and persecuted children of the world does not apply to you.  

Partisan politics aside, the unvarnished truth is that the Remain in Mexico policy worked. It served as a forceful deterrent to illegal entry, and almost certainly saved the lives of untold numbers of migrants who chose not to make a journey where sexual assault, death, and extortion at the hands of savage human trafficking cartels is common.

America may yet be saved by the last remnants of checks and balances on executive power. A federal court blocked the administration from ending Remain in Mexico, and the Supreme Court also denied a stay, leaving the lower court’s order in place during the appeal process. Like so many federal policies today, this one will likely make a further slog through the courts before change happens.  

Biden’s bait-and-switch with the American people continued when it was reported that White House officials are considering payments of up to $450,000 to illegal aliens separated from family members during the Trump Administration. On its face, the idea sounds like an absurd parody news site story. While Biden and his “immigration czar” Kamala Harris give a boilerplate warning to would-be asylum seekers not to come, they create perhaps the biggest incentive ever for the rest of the world to enter our country illegally. This while American citizens are struggling to survive through COVID, inflation, unemployment, and numerous other hardships either created or mismanaged by this administration.

These instances of contempt for the American people and dereliction of duty are not outliers for this administration, they are the norm. Biden’s abandonment of the border can also be seen in his effort to dismantle the border wall. 

So intent is Biden to undo any Trump accomplishment that he was paying federal contractors not to build sections of the wall already paid for and authorized by the government. As Biden and his deputies harangue American citizens that any opposition to their border policies is evidence of latent xenophobia, vast fields of unused wall sections worth $5,000 apiece rust away in  the Texas sun. 

These policies are not compassionate. They are part of a deranged agenda meant to slowly erode this nation’s resources by importing much of the world’s poverty problem, and in the process endowing one party with a permanent underclass to give it a lock on power for generations. There is still time to push back, but time is running short. Those who don’t want this future for their country will be required to see through the political doublespeak and the corrupt corporate media to demand better.    


The elusive adventures of Catherine Dior

     hen Catherine Dior, one of the heroic French Resistance workers captured by the Nazis, came face to face with her torturer at his trial in 1952 and received the suggestion from his lawyer that it was a case of mistaken identity, she burst out furiously to the judge: ‘I know what I’m saying. This affair cost people their lives.’

This is one of the very few vivid glimpses we get of Dior in Justine Picardie’s book. The respected former editor-in-chief of Harper’s Bazaar has tackled what is the most difficult subject for any biographer: a person about whom virtually nothing is known. Claire Tomalin brought it off in The Invisible Woman, the story of Charles Dickens’s shadowy mistress Nelly Ternan. Catherine Dior is almost equally undocumented, save for her testimony to the War Crimes Commission.  


So little is recorded about the sister of the great Christian that Picardie has had to build up a picture of her life by relying on the diaries and testimonies of others around her, or whose lives touched hers, be it working for the French Resistance, surviving the horrors of a Nazi concentration camp or in the rarefied atmosphere of French couture salons. Pages often go past without a single mention of our heroine. In fact this is a book largely about other people, some of them with barely discernible relevance. What, for instance, has the well-worn story of Edward VIII, Mrs Simpson and the abdication to do with either life in Ravensbruck camp or Dior’s New Look?  


But enough of this nitpicking. As Picardie tells the story, we plunge almost straight into World War Two, when the Dior family found themselves near Cannes, in the unoccupied Zone of France under Marshal Pétain (by June 1940 Paris had fallen and much of the country was under German administration).  


At the end of the summer of 1941 Christian returned to Paris to seek work in couture, the clothes sold to a few rich clients, to the wives of Nazis or to black marketeers. Business soared. A new social world evolved in the capital as certain hostesses entertained those Germans they believed to be cultured and sympathetic. In these warm houses one could be sure of every luxury, including champagne and superb food, in contrast to the rest of Paris, which was cold and starving.  


In Cannes a month or two later Catherine met Hervé des Charbonneries, tall, glamorous, an early supporter of the Resistance and a married man. This did not prevent her from falling in love, or working for him. Picardie’s tireless research into archival material — ‘I am sitting at my desk, surrounded by piles of photocopied papers’ — reveals that Catherine both carried and hid intelligence reports for Hervé’s group in Cannes, made more dangerous when the Germans took over unoccupied France in November 1942. When several key members of the group were arrested in the spring of 1944 it was time to flee; Catherine was alerted by the coded telephone call from Hervé: ‘We will dine tomorrow evening with your brother in Paris.’  


In Paris Catherine continued to work for Hervé’s group until she was picked up by the Gestapo on July 6 and taken to their headquarters. The tortures she suffered are recorded in her witness statement to the War Crimes Commission in 1945. Despite them, she refused to name her associates and even, through quick thinking, saw that her unit’s headquarters held no compromising material: ‘I had told them to remove everything from the office if I wasn’t back a quarter of an hour after the agreed time.’

 

 In mid-August 1944 Catherine was deported, along with others, in the last convoy to leave Paris. At the same time, with the war clearly drawing to an end, many Germans were also leaving; a mere ten days later, the German garrison in Paris surrendered. After a week, Catherine’s train arrived at Ravensbruck. Picardie’s description of the horrors of the camp is accompanied by a moving account of her own visit to it (her father, as she tells us, was Jewish).  


Catherine was one of the survivors, arriving back in Paris at the end of May 1945 — so thin that at first Christian did not recognize her. By the end of the year, she was well enough to start, with Hervé, who had moved in with her, a business selling fresh flowers from Provence, although her ordeal had left her with arthritis, injuries to her hips, back and feet and kidney problems, not to mention insomnia, nightmares, memory loss and depression.  


Then comes a history of the Paris fashion houses, from Worth onward; the story of Christian Dior’s rise to fame with the birth of the New Look, the War Crimes Court at Hamburg and pages about the British royal family. Finally we come to the trial of those who tortured Catherine and here we meet her angrily giving the evidence that ensured their execution.  


On a visit to La Colle Noire, Christian’s house in Provence where Catherine spent six months, Picardie writes: ‘The vestiges of Catherine’s presence remain as a powerful reminder of the importance of freedom, and why it is worth fighting for.’ There are few truer words.  


https://spectatorworld.com/book-and-art/elusive-adventures-catherine-dior/  



Christian Dior’s house La Colle Noire in Provence, where Catherine spent six months during the war  





Questioning the Climate-Change Narrative

What do the research literature and government reports actually say about human-induced climate change and its consequences?


Editor’s Note: The following are extracts from Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters, by Steven E. Koonin.

The first two, which are brief, are from the introduction. One sets out the basic thesis of the book, and the other is a summary of Koonin’s background. The third, which is lengthier and lightly edited, comes from a chapter entitled “Apocalypses That Ain’t,” wherein Koonin discusses climate change’s effect on the economy.


From the Introduction

‘The Science.” We’re all supposed to know what “The Science” says. “The Science,” we’re told, is settled. How many times have you heard it?

Humans have already broken the earth’s climate. Temperatures are rising, sea level is surging, ice is disappearing, and heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires are an ever-worsening scourge on the world. Greenhouse-gas emissions are causing all of this. And unless they’re eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, “The Science” says earth is doomed.

Well . . . not quite. Yes, it’s true that the globe is warming, and that humans are exerting a warming influence upon it. But beyond that — to paraphrase the classic movie The Princess Bride: “I do not think ‘The Science’ says what you think it says.”

For example, both the research literature and government reports that summarize and assess the state of climate science say clearly that heat waves in the U.S. are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warmest temperatures in the U.S. have not risen in the past 50 years. When I tell people this, most are incredulous. Some gasp. And some get downright hostile.

But these are almost certainly not the only climate facts you haven’t heard. Here are three more that might surprise you, drawn directly from recent published research or the latest assessments of climate science published by the U.S. government and the U.N.:

  • Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century.
  • Greenland’s ice sheet isn’t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was 80 years ago.
  • The net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century.

So what gives . . .?

*   *   *

I’m a scientist — I work to understand the world through measurements and observations, and then to communicate clearly both the excitement and the implications of that understanding. Early in my career, I had great fun doing this for esoteric phenomena in the realm of atoms and nuclei using high-performance computer modeling (which is also an important tool for much of climate science). But beginning in 2004, I spent about a decade turning those same methods to the subject of climate and its implications for energy technologies. I did this first as chief scientist for the oil company BP, where I focused on advancing renewable energy, and then as undersecretary for science in the Obama administration’s Department of Energy, where I helped guide the government’s investments in energy technologies and climate science. I found great satisfaction in these roles, helping to define and catalyze actions that would reduce carbon-dioxide emissions, the agreed-upon imperative that would “save the planet.”

But then the doubts began . . .

From Chapter Nine: ‘Apocalypses That Ain’t’

In 2018, on the day after Thanksgiving (Black Friday), the second volume of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA2018) was released. It deals with the projected impacts of human-induced climate change, and it immediately generated the now familiar headlines warning of impending economic disaster, among them:

  •  “Climate change will wallop the US economy” (NBC News)
  • “Climate report warns of grim economic consequences” (Fox News)
  •  “Climate change could cost US billions” (Financial Times)
  •  “US climate report warns of damaged environment and shrinking economy” (New York Times)

Indeed, Key Message No. 2 of the report’s Chapter 29 reads:

In the absence of more significant global mitigation efforts, climate change is projected to impose substantial damages on the US economy, human health, and the environment. Under scenarios with high emissions and limited or no adaptation, annual losses in some sectors are estimated to grow to hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century.

Both the key message and the heated headlines greatly dismayed me — they’re clearly intended to be frightening. Yet I had studied the issue and knew that the projected net economic impacts were minimal. Let me explain. 

I first looked into the economic impacts of climate change the year before, in 2017, when one of the world’s largest investment organizations requested my advice on climate science. Since they’d asked that I cover economic impacts, I had carefully read what the U.N.’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) had to say on the matter.

Projections of the economic impacts of a changing climate are highly uncertain. Of course, we already know there are great uncertainties in how the climate will change because of inadequate climate models and uncertainty in future emissions. And climate uncertainties are larger at the regional level than they are at the global level. For example, for the first five or six years of the recent California drought, many climate scientists said that human influences on the climate increased the risk of drought. Yet it took only about a year after the drought broke dramatically in 2016 for papers to appear claiming that a warming world would also mean a wetter California. Perhaps this is just the process of scientific understanding being refined. Less charitably, I get the distinct sense that the science is unsettled enough that any unusual weather can be “attributed” to human influences.

In addition, climate is only one of many factors influencing economic development and well-being. Economic policies, trade, technology, and governance are also important, and these are different in different countries and can change in unpredictable ways. Economic measures are highly regional, and their future uncertainties are compounded by the uncertainty of regional climate predictions. It is particularly difficult to predict how, and how much, a rising temperature would damage a society economically in the face of so many unknowns — among them the role that might be played by adaptation measures such as the raising of sea walls or shifts in what crops are cultivated that minimize, or sometimes even exploit, the impact of climate changes.

Despite those challenges, the AR5’s Working Group II — whose part of the assessment is devoted to the ecological and societal impacts of the changes in climate outlined by Working Group I — does say something about how world economic activity would be affected by a warming globe. Figure 9.4, a chart included in Unsettled, plots some 20 published estimates showing that the (by now familiar) projected global temperature rise of up to 3 °C by 2100 would negatively impact the global economy by — wait for it — 3 percent or less.

For my talk to the investors, I provided some important context that was missing from the U.N. report. An impact of 3 percent in 2100 — some 80 years from now — translates to a decrease in the annual growth rate by an average of 3 percent divided by 80, or about 0.04 percent per year. The IPCC scenarios (discussed in Chapter 3) assume an average global annual growth rate of about 2 percent through 2100; the climate impact would then be a 0.04 percent decrease in that 2 percent growth rate, for a resulting growth rate of 1.96 percent. In other words, the U.N. report says that the economic impact of human-induced climate change is negligible, at most a bump in the road. In fact, the first point in the executive summary to its Chapter 10 is:

For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers (medium evidence, high agreement). Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact of climate change.

A 2018 article written by one of the IPCC’s coordinating lead authors reviewed a further four years of published papers and came to a similar conclusion:

The total economic impacts of climate change are negative, but modest on average, and . . . the severe impacts on less developed countries are caused primarily by poverty.

The consensus on the minimal overall economic impact of rising temperatures is well known to experts, though it’s an inconvenient one for those wishing to sound the alarm on climate. I was dumbfounded when I asked a prominent environmental policy-maker about the U.N. assessment and the response was: “Yes, it’s unfortunate that the impact numbers are so small.

At any rate, this background left me primed to weigh in on the breathless coverage that accompanied the release of Volume II of NCA2018. The last figure in that report’s final chapter is based on a 2017 paper published in Science magazine. It shows that projected direct damages to the U.S. economy at the end of the century grow with increasing global average temperature (shown as the anomaly relative to the 1980–2010 average). As in the IPCC projection for the world economy, the impacts on the U.S. are small: A very large warming of 5 °C (9 °F) at the end of the century would diminish the U.S. economy by 4 percent. (It’s worth noting that this 5 °C warming is relative to today’s temperatures, which are up 1 °C from pre-industrial values, making this equal to 6 °C of warming by the Paris Agreement accounting, which has set 1.5 °C as a goal.)

Like the U.N. report, NCA2018 fails to put this in context, but I can do so quite simply: The U.S. economy has grown at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent since 1930 (it’s almost 20 times larger now that it was 90 years ago). Under the conservative assumption that annual economic growth will average 2 percent for the next 70 years, the U.S. economy will be four times larger in 2090 than it is today. The purported climate impact of 4 percent in 2090 then corresponds to two years of growth. In other words, an additional warming of 5 °C (9 °F) by 2090 would delay the growth of the U.S. economy to that time — 70 years from now — by only two years. . . .

Within a few hours of the NCA2018’s release on Black Friday, I had drafted a short op-ed saying more or less what I have said here, which the Wall Street Journal published online on Monday. The next day, a prominent U.S. energy economist sent an email thanking me for making the point — alas, that person could never express that thanks publicly. The next week, one of the authors of the original 2017 research paper from which the estimates used in the assessment report were drawn expressed dismay at the way their results had been portrayed in the media.

The climate-science establishment, most notably the authors of NCA2018, reacted to my op-ed with silence. They did nothing to address the media’s catastrophizing. Perhaps they were embarrassed by their own doom-mongering. Or perhaps, like the policy-maker I mentioned earlier who wished the impact numbers had been greater, it was precisely the coverage they’d been hoping for.

As you’ve no doubt noticed yourself, the notion of climate-related economic disaster remains alive and well in the media and political dialogue. Economics has been called the “dismal science,” and I once joked to a prominent economist that the compounding of climate and economic projections is a “doubly dismal” enterprise. It is reasonable to expect that factors related to climate change — including shifts in agricultural conditions or variations in storm patterns — will have different economic impacts (and benefits) on certain populations and economic sectors. Yet contrary to popular belief, even the official assessment reports indicate that significant human-induced climate change would have negligible net economic impact on either the world or the U.S. economies by the end of this century.


What You Need To Know About Today’s Gun Rights Case In The Supreme Court

The initial question the justices must decide is whether the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to keep and bear arms outside of the home.


Wednesday, for the first time in more than a decade, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral argument in a case involving the Second Amendment. While the appeal in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen concerns the constitutionality of New York’s restrictive concealed-carry permitting system, the high court’s analysis will prove as important as the ultimate outcome.

Here’s what you need to know.

First Things First: The Second Amendment

The Second Amendment provides: “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

Although one of our first freedoms, the Second Amendment remained neglected in the realm of constitutional jurisprudence until 2008, when the Supreme Court in District of Columbia v. Heller held that the Second Amendment protects “the individual right to possess and carry weapons in case of confrontation.” The court further held that the individual right did not depend on militia service—that the “militia clause” was merely prefatory, explaining the purpose of the protection, but not limiting the right to keep and bear arms.

Two years later, in McDonald v. City of Chicago, the Supreme Court held that the Second Amendment to the Constitution “is fully applicable to the States” and “state subdivisions, such as counties and cities.

While landmark decisions, Heller and McDonald addressed very narrow questions, namely whether laws banning or regulating the possession of weapons in the home violated the Second Amendment. The court answered in the affirmative in both cases, striking the laws at issue in both cases.

Since then, the high court has kept its docket free of all Second Amendment cases, other than in 2016 issuing an unsigned order in Caetano v. Massachusetts, wherein the Supreme Court held that stun guns were protected under the Second Amendment.

Wednesday morning changes that when the justices consider Robert Nash and Brandon Koch’s challenge, in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, to New York’s refusal to issue them licenses to carry concealed handguns outside of the home.

In New York, it is illegal for individuals to openly carry handguns, and carrying concealed handguns is permitted only upon issuance by the state of a conceal-carry permit. The New York licensing scheme, however, only allows members of the public to obtain a license to carry a concealed handgun if they establish “proper cause exists.”

New York’s statute does not define “proper cause,” but to date state courts have held that applicants seeking a license to carry a concealed handgun for self-defense “must demonstrate a special need for self-protection distinguishable from that of the general community or of persons engaged in the same profession.” A generalized fear of crime, and even living in an area with high-crime statistics, is insufficient.

After the state denied Nash and Koch licenses to carry concealed handguns, they filed suit in federal court arguing that requiring them to show they had “proper cause” violated their Second Amendment rights. Both the trial court and the Second Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the argument, prompting the New Yorkers to appeal to the Supreme Court.

In seeking review by the Supreme Court, Nash and Koch asked the court to determine “whether the Second Amendment allows the government to prohibit ordinary law-abiding citizens from carrying handguns outside the home for self-defense.” However, in agreeing to hear the appeal, known as granting certiorari, the Supreme Court limited the question on appeal to “whether the State’s denial of petitioners’ applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment.”

Why This Is a Big Case

While the question before the Supreme Court is narrow, the case is significant for two main reasons.

First, under either framing of the question on appeal, the initial question the justices must decide is whether the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to keep and bear arms outside of the home. Because Heller and McDonald both concerned laws prohibiting or regulating guns within the home, at least five circuits have used that fact to hold Second Amendment protections do not extend beyond the threshold.

The Supreme Court now can correct that illogical conclusion—illogical given that the Second Amendment speaks of the right to both “keep” and “bear” arms, the latter of which most reasonably occurs outside the home.

Second, since Heller and McDonald, the lower courts have applied myriad different standards in judging the constitutionality of laws affecting Second Amendment rights, and for a simple reason: The Supreme Court has failed to clarify the controlling standard.

As a result, the federal appellate courts have crafted their own standards. For instance, the Second Circuit and the D.C. Circuit have both held that the relevant question is whether the government has established a “substantial relationship” between the regulation and “an important state interest.” In the law, the “substantial relationship” with “an important state interest” standard is called “intermediate scrutiny.”

Other courts and commentators suggest strict scrutiny should apply and that the government must have a compelling reason to ban or regulate protected weapons and that the law must be narrowly tailored to achieve that end.

The Seventh Circuit devised a different test for the Second Amendment, reasoning that, “instead of trying to decide what ‘level’ of scrutiny applies, and how it works,” it is more appropriate “to ask whether a regulation bans weapons that were common at the time of ratification or those that have some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency of a well-regulated militia, and whether law-abiding citizens retain adequate means of self-defense.”

Other courts have adopted different standards based in part on the law being challenged.

In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, the Supreme Court has the opportunity to clarify the standard under which laws affecting Second Amendment rights will be judged. Today’s oral argument will likely include a focus on that question, with the justices peppering lawyers with questions concerning how to reconcile governmental regulations with the Second Amendment’s declaration that the right to keep and bear arms “shall not be infringed.”

What governmental interests suffice and under what circumstances will likely be the subject of other questions. Watch also for Justice Clarence Thomas, who seems to have found his tongue of late, to call for a focus on the Second Amendment’s text, history, and tradition, as opposed to any judicially invented standards of review.

It will be many months before we know the outcome of the case. But for now, the hearing will provide a gauge of the justices’ views on the appropriate standard under which to judge laws challenged under the Second Amendment.