Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Reflections on the Looming Revolution in America

 

No revolution has ever been successful without the use of weapons


Article by Ken Cuccinelli and Jim Presswood in The American Conservative


Reflections on the Looming Revolution in America

Left and right populists must unite to defeat cronyism and make policies that meet the needs of the American people. 

 

America is on the precipice of a second revolution. The first led to the creation of a constitutional republic and the second one could end it. The Democrats, deeply frustrated by the federal government’s dysfunction, are pursuing revolutionary changes. They are especially eager to fundamentally alter the design of the Senate and Electoral College, which serve to protect the interests of states. The most imminent potential change is removal of the Senate filibuster.

The solution to government dysfunction, however, is not revolutionary change that would dramatically intensify today’s partisan war but incremental innovation that enables bipartisan policy through modernizing the country’s ideological coalitions and how they interact. The conservative movement needs to create the institutional capacity required to advance bipartisan legislation on a wide range of issues. The ideological left and right could then effectively engage in joint legislative campaigns around shared interests, beginning with populist initiatives consistent with conservative principles.

As the 18th century British statesman Edmund Burke noted in Reflections on the Revolution in France, “it is with infinite caution” that anyone should pull down or replace structures that have served society well over the ages “without having models and patterns of approved utility” before their eyes. He applied this principle in supporting the revolution in America, while opposing the one in France, where revolutionaries radically (and viciously) transformed the political and societal structures of the country.

The Democrats almost have enough votes to remove the Senate filibuster, which they believe is necessary to overcome partisan gridlock and effectively govern. But instead of partisan gridlock, there would be partisan oppression. In our closely divided country, the parties would take turns imposing their will while earnestly seeking to reverse gains made by the other when in power. Partisan oppression would ensure the republic-killing factionalism that James Madison warned about in Federalist Papers No. 10. This factionalism would almost certainly eliminate any real interest in bipartisan compromise, which has been a defining characteristic of our republic.

Democrats also seek to remove what they derisively call the “anti-democratic” and “outdated” elements of America’s constitutional republic with the goal of moving towards a European-style parliamentary system. Their primary focus is on fundamental changes to the Electoral College and Senate. Some on the left even want to abolish these institutions.

Both institutions serve to represent the interests of states, which remain just as vital today as they were at the nation’s founding. The less populated (i.e., small) states that founded the republic fought hard for these state-focused institutions. They realized that if control of the republic’s institutions was determined solely by population, the big states would run the country and small state interests would not be adequately represented.

The founders resolved this concern for the legislative branch with the Great Compromise, which apportioned Senate membership equally among the states and House membership by each state’s population. For the presidency, they applied the Great Compromise principle to protect small state interests by establishing the Electoral College. This institution is composed of electors selected by the states and the number of electors from each state is based on its total number of representatives in the House and Senate. The creative tension between big states and small states established by the Great Compromise is foundational to our constitutional republic.

In recent years, the state-focused institutions have enabled those Republicans strongly motivated by populism to gain power, dramatically changing American politics. This populism is largely driven by the concerns of people struggling in blue collar towns and rural areas—what could be called “Left Behind America”—where hopelessness and poverty are rampant (features shared with parts of urban America). These regions are less populated, but still politically influential because of the state-focused institutions. Without these institutions, the concerns of these economically depressed regions could be ignored.

The strong alignment of less populated regions across the country with either party should be considered a loudly sounding alarm that a geographic sectionalism has emerged that is harmful to the republic. Instead of trying to fundamentally change the state-focused institutions that are serving as this alarm, the left should be focused on trying to overcome such geographic sectionalism.

President George Washington expressed serious concern in his Farewell Address about parties divided by geography, allowing their leaders to “misrepresent the opinions and aims” of other regions. A deepening metropolitan-rural divide separates the parties. People on either side of the divide hardly know or even understand each other, and false stereotypes are rampant.

Americans across the ideological spectrum have a shared interest in overcoming this divide, which is based far more on economic class and geography than ideology. While the populism that has emerged in electoral politics because of this division is currently increasing polarization, harnessing it to advance bipartisan legislation would help begin to forge a new American unity.

The conservative movement, however, first needs to modernize. The movement, including media outlets and NGOs, is a highly effective force in representing conservative priorities in both electoral politics and in blocking legislation. It lacks, however, significant capacity to advance bipartisan legislation. This deficiency is a principal contributing factor in today’s partisan gridlock.

Conservatives are appropriately reflecting history, yelling “stop” to the radicalized changes sought by the left. But we cannot simply oppose these changes; we must also propose incremental solutions. We need to persuade our fellow Americans that the answer is not removing the constitutional republic’s creative tensions that help resolve conflict and competing interests, but creating new bonds between the ideological left and right.

The first step in developing these new bonds would be building capacity in the conservative movement to advance bipartisan legislation. The institutional cornerstone of this capacity is the issue-specific policy advocacy group with a mission of achieving legislative solutions. Such a group is ideally designed to engage in the advocacy and coalition building needed to move legislation.

An effective group would have deep policy expertise, enabling it to readily identify common ground on often very complex problems. The group would also have good working relationships across the ideological spectrum and throughout its issue area, which is essential to developing coalitions required to advance legislation.

As described in Asymmetric Politics by political scientists Matt Grossman and David Hopkins, the left has a vast number of these groups and they wield tremendous influence. But there are relatively few issue-specific groups on the right. Most of the conservative movement’s policy groups cover multiple issues and lead the fight against the left, making it difficult for them to work with left-of-center allies.

The direct engagement between conservative and progressive issue-specific groups would be especially useful, fostering a creative tension that leads to the kind of innovation that has been a hallmark of America. The solutions developed, much like the U.S. Constitution, would be better than either side could generate on its own.

Such innovation is critical to enact effective and durable legislative solutions to the problems facing Left Behind America, which are quite complex and have confounded Western democracies around the world. Groups representing other ideological categories, such as libertarians and centrists, would continue to be invaluable as they are now, but our country is too polarized and evenly divided to make real progress on national-level issues without conservatives and progressives reaching some degree of agreement.

Enhancing the capacity of state and local-level policy groups representing the conservative grassroots is another piece of conservative movement infrastructure needed to move bipartisan legislation. Advocating bipartisan legislation typically requires professional staff with policy expertise and advocacy sophistication. The conservative grassroots groups, however, generally have very constrained resources, limiting them to electoral politics and policy advocacy focused primarily on blocking legislation.

The conservative donor class has the resources to build the movement’s bipartisan policy advocacy infrastructure. But they have not prioritized investment in policy advocacy generally—the left spends far more in this space. Conservative donors across the ideological spectrum should use their financial power to help unify the conservative movement behind bipartisan legislation.

The initial focus should be on the priorities of Left Behind America. These priorities include helping Americans struggling in these economically depressed regions and reforming regulations in multiple economic sectors. Regulatory reforms would enhance free enterprise and spur innovation, unleashing America’s entrepreneurs. Reforming regulations would also rein in corporate cronyism, helping to drain the proverbial swamp.

Conservative scholars at academic institutions and think tanks have proposed a host of policy solutions that would benefit Left Behind America. The movement needs issue groups to emerge that can advance bipartisan legislation that would enact these solutions.

The Democrats should be eager to help Left Behind America, which made our country into an economic superpower and provides the largest percentage of our armed forces. The working class of these regions is also the same demographic highlighted by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in his “Forgotten Man” speech.

An ideal place to start Left Behind America policy advocacy would be on initiatives that harness populism to advance bipartisan legislation that reforms regulations in multiple economic sectors. The first such initiative in the United States appears to be the Virginia Energy Reform Coalition, which we helped build. This left-right coalition is advocating legislation that includes competitive electricity policy reforms pioneered by President George W. Bush when he was governor of Texas. Enacting the legislation would lower energy bills, benefit the economy, reduce pollution, and rein in corporate cronyism. This left-right electricity reform initiative could readily be scaled to other states and to the national level.

Other sectors ripe for reform include financial services (reining in Wall Street’s megabanks), agriculture (removing barriers faced by smaller-scale farmers practicing good animal and environmental stewardship), and pharmaceuticals (enabling more competitive prescription drug prices).

Harnessing populism to achieve regulatory reforms would also begin to forge a new American unity. Conservatives and progressives can readily agree on many of the policies and they share a deep disdain of cronyism. Regulatory reforms are opposed by powerful corporate cronyists, so the left and right would have to fight together to achieve progress. The battles would build working relationships and even friendships. The working relationships would enable compromise on more divisive issues, such as comprehensive immigration reform that reduces low-wage worker immigration.

Left-right legislative campaigns would also enhance the functionality of Congress. As explained by Yuval Levin in A Time to Build, the institution has essentially lost its ability to achieve durable compromises. He asserts that its members are now far more interested in using it as a platform for waging the culture war and building their personal brands than for lawmaking. Successful left-right campaigns would create strong incentives on both sides of the aisle to make the institution more functional and enact effective legislative solutions to our country’s most pressing problems.

Many in America and around the world believe that the nation’s best days are behind it. Authoritarian regimes, especially China, point to our dysfunction as proof that Western democracies are no longer viable. But America has a long history of innovation and overcoming seemingly insurmountable obstacles. We created the best system of government in the history of the world, and it still is. We just need some incremental innovation to make it work for the 21st century.

 https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/reflections-on-the-looming-revolution-in-america/





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X22, James Red Pills America, and more-August 17

 



Happy Tuesday! Got a big lineup of news tonight (and a lot of it!):

Additional article from Gateway Pundit: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/08/cant-miss-trump-join-hannity-tonight-discuss-bidens-complete-failure-afghanistan/


Biden's Afghanistan Debacle May Have Been Intentional

 


Article by Nick Arama in RedState


Biden's Afghanistan Debacle May Have Been Intentional

During his speech yesterday, Joe Biden angrily blamed everyone else for the collapse in Afghanistan, including his predecessor, President Donald Trump, saying that he had to comply with the deal Trump had worked out, despite the fact that the Taliban had breached the agreement and despite the fact that Biden himself had tossed aside so many other deals that Trump had worked out.

But Politico has a great story that completely blows all this apart. The story basically indicates that this debacle was intentional — that Biden always intended withdrawal, nothing to do with Trump, and to heck with our allies.

They noted on the Afghanistan pullout, for example, Biden overruled his top military advisers and ignored the near-unanimous view of the Washington foreign policy establishment.

From Politico:

It wasn’t a new position. While Biden championed nation building in Afghanistan in the early years of the war, he had turned against it long ago, as George Packer reported in The Atlantic earlier this year:

“By the time Biden became vice president in 2009, the disastrous war in Iraq, the endemic corruption of the Afghan government, and the return of the Taliban had made him a deep skeptic of the American commitment. He became the Obama administration’s strongest voice for getting out of Afghanistan. In 2010, he told RICHARD HOLBROOKE, Obama’s special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, that the U.S. had to leave Afghanistan regardless of the consequences for women or anyone else. According to Holbrooke’s diary, when he asked about American obligations to Afghans like the girl in the Kabul school, Biden replied with a history lesson from the final U.S. withdrawal from Southeast Asia in 1973: ‘Fuck that, we don’t have to worry about that. We did it in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.’”

Incredible. So he wanted to get out for years, and he believed he would be able to just pull out in a blind withdrawal without reckoning for the allies. Just as, in fact, he did, in the disaster we’ve been witnessing. He just thought he could get away with it, as he says there, because, in his opinion, others had in the past. Now, it makes sense why he ignored Afghan pleas for months, why he left any real actions to the last minute. Because he just couldn’t give a darn and it was always in his calculus to leave them high and dry.

This is not just Joe Biden incompetent. This is Joe Biden evil. He wasn’t avoiding Vietnam comparisons, he was using a Vietnam comparison to think that he could do what he did and get away with it. He pulled out without a real plan because he never had a plan. The plan was to just pull out and abandon them.

Now he’s mad that he was wrong yet again, mad that we actually care and are demanding answers, mad that he does in fact have to account for people.

 

https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2021/08/17/bidens-afghanistan-debacle-may-have-been-intentional-n428183





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Number of Americans Trapped in Afghanistan May Be Even Worse Than the Biden Team Is Telling Us

 

British Women and Children Interned in a Japanese Prison Camp, Syme Road, Singapore, 1945

 

Article by Nick Arama in RedState

 

Number of Americans Trapped in Afghanistan May Be Even Worse Than the Biden Team Is Telling Us

Including military personnel, up to 40,000 Americans may have been left behind in our this new Dunkirk challenge

As we reported earlier, the Biden team is saying that there may be up to 10,000 Americans who still need to be rescued from Afghanistan. I wrote previously about how they were begging people like Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) for help because our government wasn’t responding and had just told them to shelter in place and fill out a form.

But it may be even worse than that, according to Bush Assistant Secretary of State Robert Charles. According to Charles, he said there was a tally and it was between 15,000 and 40,000 people still waiting to be told when they’ll be saved.

‘It’s hard for me to properly present the extent of this foreign policy failure. This is a cascading national security failure.

‘There’s a document in the embassy called the F-77. I am told the F-77 of Afghanistan indicates there are 15,000 potentially, upwards of 40,000 Americans scattered around Afghanistan right now.

‘The Taliban has given a two week grace period for them to get out but most of them have been told to shelter in place by the State Department,’ Charles told Fox and Friends.

Meanwhile, State Department spokesperson Ned Price claimed there was no “tally.” So which is it?

Charles was referencing an apparent uneasy understanding between the Taliban and the U.S. military that they can get some people through to the airport.

 

 But the Taliban has encircled the airport and has all the access points covered, and the Americans and the allies who need to be rescued are spread out all over the country.


 How are we even going to begin to do that? The US claims it’ll remove 5,000/day despite only rescuing 1,400 since Sunday. But if there are 40,000 Americans plus thousands more allies, how are you going to be able to get those people out now?

 

 Are the Taliban really going to let them get the allies who they are looking to kill through Taliban checkpoints? What we’re talking about now is many incredibly dangerous missions, possible hostage-taking, and people getting killed all because Biden left us in the lurch on all this, because he failed to even consider or even care about any of these questions until now.

 

 

 https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2021/08/17/number-of-americans-trapped-in-afghanistan-may-be-even-worse-than-the-biden-team-is-telling-us-n428138





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The Generals Can Blame Biden for the Current Afghanistan Debacle, They Can't Blame the Last Twenty Years of Lies and Incompetence on Him


streiff reporting for RedState 

I’d like to say I was a little shocked when I read this story by my colleague Mike Miller: Biden Ordered Afghanistan Withdrawal Against Warnings From Top Generals: Report.

The gist of the story is that senior military leaders, including General Mark “Stand Back, I Have White Rage” Milley, told Biden they needed to modify the withdrawal plan Biden was already modified:

Gen. Frank McKenzie, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East; Gen. Austin Scott Miller, who led NATO forces in Afghanistan; and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Citing the risks of removing American forces to Afghan security and the U.S. Embassy, they recommended that the U.S. keep 2,500 troops in Afghanistan while stepping up diplomacy to try to cement a peace agreement.

If you read that carefully, you could be excused for coming away with the illusion that Biden received advice that would have made a difference to where we are today. It wouldn’t have. And I’m not shocked because this kind of blame-shifting and failure to accept responsibility has become something of a hallmark of the nation’s senior military leadership.

The rot was already present in a very brittle Afghan Army that could fight well but often chose not to. The Afghan Army, rightfully, didn’t trust a deeply corrupt and unpopular government. Central Asian countries saw the writing on the wall and made it more difficult for the contractors needed to support or Afghan adventure to get there. Our allies were mostly gone. Everyone was looking for the exits. And our Defense brain trust recommended 2,500 more troops and mo’ better diplomacy.

What you see is our military leaders, the people who planned, directed, and managed the US military campaigns in Afghanistan over the past twenty years…pause and think about that for a moment, twenty years, there are numerous instances of fathers and sons fighting in the same war…now claiming that Biden is to blame and if he’d only listen to the same failed counsel that Bush and Obama and Trump had listened to, well things would’ve been different.

I predict that we will be hearing the same stuff from the intelligence community as they try to erase stories like this one from three days ago from the public’s memory: Taliban could take Afghan capital within 90 days after rapid gains -U.S. intelligence.

This is shameful. The fact that the commander-in-chief didn’t do what you requested doesn’t relieve you of responsibility for an unmitigated, world-class military disaster like that unfolding in Afghanistan. I’m not talking about the Afghan Army cutting and running for the Iranian border. I’m talking about the lack of strategic imagination that prevented the US military from allowing this to happen:

A couple of months ago, James Jay Carafano wrote a short essay on the subject of the failures of our military leadership for the Washington Times:

Perhaps, the armed forces busy with their day jobs of over a decade of heightened military operations and prolonged combat didn’t have the time or space to think deeply about the future or how America was changing around them.

Perhaps, in not robustly educating military leaders on economics, politics and culture, their intellectual arsenal is empty.

Maybe the military relied too much on advanced civilian education that was heavily weighted to leftist politics.

Or maybe we have become too lax about holding military and political leaders accountable when they start meddling too much in the operational side of the other’s affairs.

It is time to talk about why our military can’t deal with politicians who play politics with the military, or why some military officers have become partisan political actors while in uniform (a phenomenon of the Trump administration as well as Biden’s).

Most importantly, we need to start talking about how we fix this before it really gets out of hand.

One answer, of course, is to stop electing politicians who play politics with the military.

But we also need to educate military leaders on how to properly serve both elected civilian leaders and the oath they took when they put on a uniform — and to serve both equally well no matter how difficult that might be.

While people in uniform are always required to follow lawful orders, they are not there just to say “yes” to every politician. Nor should an officer remain silent, failing to stand for the right thing, because it might endanger their career or advancement.

Military leaders are there to provide for the common defense no matter how outrageous or out-of-kilter domestic politics gets. Sometimes that can be as challenging as fighting a war. It’s every bit as important. Because you can’t fight or deter a war with a military that can’t fight.

I can add another category. Perhaps our military is not led by steely-eyed warrior monks but by a spoiled, petulant class of divas skilled in evading responsibility and navigating a byzantine bureaucracy but grossly incompetent in what we hired them to do?

We were failed by 20 years worth of general officers. There needs to be an accounting. No matter what dumbf*** calls Joe Biden made, the military had an obligation to anticipate, do better, and not blame Biden for them screwing the pooch as they did in the past 72 hours.


‘A Pitiful, Helpless Giant’

The more serious and recurrent the failures and humiliations of
 the Biden Administration, the more China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea 
will push and provoke America and its allies.


President Richard Nixon warned what America would become should it fail to have the determination and courage of a great world power. Speaking on April 30, 1970, he said: “If when the chips are down, the world’s most powerful nation, the United States of America, acts like a pitiful, helpless giant, the forces of totalitarianism and anarchy will threaten free nations and free institutions throughout the world.” He was announcing a successful incursion into Cambodia that was welcomed by the Cambodian government and which he promised would be ended within a deadline—which was met. 

In recent weeks, we have had the announcement of the withdrawal of the final 3,500 Americans from nearly 20 years in Afghanistan with the confident assertion that the heavily armed Afghan army would hold its own against the Taliban Islamist guerrillas, followed by steadily more alarming reports of Taliban progress to the point where 5,000 soldiers and Marines are being concentrated and sent to Kabul to assure the safe evacuation of all American personnel from that country.

In the few weeks between the confident statement of American withdrawal and Afghan defense capability, the U.S. government, through Defense Department spokesman John Kirby (who has not been exuding confidence), first assured the press that the Taliban was sufficiently concerned with international acceptance that it would avoid provocative actions such as seizing the U.S. embassy. That state of official serenity lasted for approximately a week before the announcement that elite airborne forces would be entrusted with the evacuation of Americans and close U.S. supporters among the Afghan population. 

The U.S. embassy was completed about 10 years ago at a cost of $700 million. To the world, it will almost undoubtedly be represented as a reenactment of the dreadful and shameful fiasco in Saigon in 1975 when helicopters evacuated Americans from the embassy compound with desperate Vietnamese clinging to the runners and wheels of the departing helicopters.

This fiasco squares with the inexplicably stupid Biden Administration appeasement of the green extremists in stopping the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada and ending offshore drilling where the U.S. government has the jurisdiction to do so, thus tumbling the United States back into the status of an energy importer, only to go back, cap-in-hand, to the avaricious OPEC cartel to ask them to increase production in order to reduce the cost of American oil imports. This request was made of such intimate and good-intentioned American allies as Iran, Venezuela, and Libya. 

This disaster itself followed an invitation from the Biden Administration to the human rights specialists of the United Nations to assess and report on America’s status in fighting racism within its own borders. The personnel of the United Nations and its agencies are notoriously hostile to the principal Western countries and perversely confide such functions as the assessment of the state of human rights to countries that make no pretense whatsoever of having any respect for individual liberties—and frequently no respect for notions of racial equality either. It is inconceivable that any country could look upon this request by the United States to be monitored and evaluated by the United Nations as anything but an act of unimaginable naïveté or uncontrollable masochism. 

Still, perhaps the most serious retreat into the appearance and conduct of a pitiful helpless giant has been on the southern border of the United States. Virtually every week for the first six-and-a-half months of the new administration, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has solemnly explained, “The southern border is closed.” Finally, on Thursday, he was overheard explaining to some border officials that the position was extremely serious and “unsustainable.” As people from all over the world are now flooding in across the southern border at the rate of more than 200,000 a month, and border control officials are giving interviews every day in which they indiscriminately tell the media what a desperate and hopeless situation it is with tens of thousands of the incoming migrants being COVID-19 carriers who are then released into the United States, the only excuse White House press secretary Jen Psaki can offer is the administration came into office and found an immigration system that was “badly broken.”

In fact, the southern border was in better condition than it had been since the time of Presidents Dwight Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy. The Biden Administration immediately decided to stop construction of the wall that was within a couple of months of completion, not even bothering to paint it (which means it will have to be rebuilt altogether by the next administration), and to return to the “catch-and-release” policy that apprehends illegal migrants and then releases them into the country on the theory they will return later for a court date (which, in fact, almost never happens). 

And the Biden Administration dismantled the arrangements with the government of Mexico whereby the detention of those seeking entry to the United States as refugees was by the Mexicans and on the Mexican side of the border. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador directed almost three full divisions of the Mexican army to alleviate the strain of approaching migrants in northern Mexico toward the United States. All this has ended. 

This administration has been extremely fuzzy and ambiguous about what it considers the legitimate national interests of the United States to be. The status of Taiwan in particular invites concern. The long-standing arrangement going back to President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 has been that both China and the United States accept the concept of a single China, a concept that Taiwan accepts also, and the People’s Republic of China acknowledges that it will not attempt to reunite Taiwan to the mainland by force. The United States in turn asserts that it will not encourage Taiwan to declare its permanent separation and independence from China. Little has been stated officially about what the United States would do if, as the speculation goes, China decided to take advantage of America’s present irresolution and sought to reunite Taiwan to China by force.

The entire security of Western civilization and the preeminence of the Western languages and alphabet and of governments officially devoted to the Judeo-Christian values of the rule of law and respect for individual rights, however imperfectly observed in practice, depends on the United States maintaining its position as the world’s most influential country. That is to say: the almost undisputed priority in the world of the major Western powers that has prevailed since the Greeks repelled the great King of Persia, Xerxes at Salamis in 480 B.C., 2,501 years ago, also depends on the United States retaining its status as a superpower with all the strength of example and deterrence and alliance leadership that it has successfully exercised since World War II. 

The more serious and recurrent the failures and humiliations of the Biden Administration, the more China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will push and provoke America and its allies, and the feebler and more appeasement-minded America’s long-time allies will become. Americans should be in no doubt that with the fall of Kabul, the world, which has become rather tired of American leadership anyway and is not an inexhaustible reservoir of Americophilia, will, at least for a time, be mindlessly consolable in believing that “the land of the free and the home of the brave” has indeed become “a pitiful, helpless giant.”    


Taliban Enjoys Deep Belly Laugh Over Diversity Training Materials Left Behind By U.S. Military



KABUL—According to sources in Afghanistan, the Taliban was having a "deep belly laugh" over the diversity training materials left behind by the U.S. military previously stationed there. Taliban fighters captured books like Antiracist BabyWhite Fragility, and The GayBCs and collectively cracked up over the ridiculousness of the gender ideology present in the works. 

As the American military evacuated quickly with no apparent plan or direction, many top-secret materials were left behind, from battle plans and tactics to books like How to Be an Antiracist and Heather Has Two Mommies. According to sources, after a busy 24 hours conquering all of Afghanistan, the material provided a "much-needed break" and some "well-deserved laughter."

"Oh man, this is great stuff, Allah be praised," said one Taliban leader, tears in his eyes, as he read through Pink is for Boys and Jacob's New Dress. "These American fighters thought they stood a chance against us? Pathetic!"

"Look at this book -- the Americans think it is praiseworthy for a boy to dress up like a girl! No wonder they couldn't win in a war against us!"

At publishing time, the Taliban were kicking themselves after realizing they could have won the war much earlier if they had just called American soldiers by the wrong pronouns.


Biden Administration's Afghanistan Timeline


🧵THREAD🧵

I don’t know the right answer to what’s going on in Afghanistan.

But I do know that nearly everything the Biden Administration has said about it for the last few months has been wrong or a promise unkept.

I revisit what was said and predicted.⤵️ 
First, important framing. We’ve known that the rebuild of Afghanistan has been a failure and a fraud for years.

If you haven’t yet, I encourage you to read The Afghanistan Papers from @washingtonpost, which unpacks the depth of the deception: washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/…
Despite that, President Biden plowed ahead with his withdrawal plans.

He was confident enough that, just last month, he rejected comparisons to Saigon because “the Taliban is not the North Vietnamese Army.”

That might be fair. They proved far more capable.Image
Again, just last month, Biden said “the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”

One month later, the Taliban had done just that.ImageImage
If today’s speech from Biden sounded familiar, it’s because it was largely lifted from his speech in April announcing the drawdown.

One line that didn’t make it in this time? The Afghan military will “continue to fight valiantly…at great cost.”ImageImage
One of the most consistently wrong people is Antony Blinken, Biden’s Secretary of State.

He said of the withdrawal: “as the United States begins withdrawing our troops, we will use our civilian and economic assistance to advance a just and durable peace for Afghanistan.”Image
In April, while visiting Afghanistan, Blinken told Afghan President Ashraf Gandhi - who has since fled the country - that Blinken was there to “demonstrate literally, by our presence, that we have an enduring and ongoing commitment to Afghanistan.”ImageImage
I’m…not sure that one came to pass.

But perhaps Blinken’s worst prediction was from June where he said the US withdrawal wouldn’t lead to “some kind of immediate deterioration in the situation” that could happen “from a Friday to a Monday.”

It took, what, a week and a half?ImageImage
There were a lot of bad predictions about the Taliban.

In April, US Envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad told lawmakers that the new Taliban would behave better because “international recognition” would prove an incentive.

Doesn’t look like it.ImageImage
The generals, as ever, were also wrong. Speaking to the Senate in June, SecDef Lloyd Austin and Gen Mark Milley said there was a “medium” risk that the Taliban would have the capability to retake Afghanistan and it would take two years.

It took them two weeks.ImageImage
Milley at that same testimony said that “I don’t see Saigon 1975 in Afghanistan. The Taliban just aren’t the North Vietnamese Army. It’s not that kind of situation.”

It was, in fact, precisely that type of situation, just worse and faster.Image
Here we’ve got nameless “U.S. officials” endorsing the theory that the Taliban - yes, that Taliban - would be concerned about being an international pariah because their leaders “have a record of seeking international credibility.”Image
"...experts also believe that Taliban leaders have moderated in recent years, recognizing that Afghanistan’s cities have modernized, and note that the group’s peace negotiators have traveled internationally, seeing the outside world in a way its founders rarely...did." NYT, 4/23Image
Speaking of generals, here’s Joseph Dunford endorsing the international respect theory that this Afghanistan would “temper its violence” because…well, who knows.Image
Just amazing.Image
As has been the case for the last twenty years, our intel has simply been wrong.

We thought we had months, even worst-case scenario.

We really only had weeks.ImageImage
I’ve said this on here repeatedly but I really don’t think that Biden will face serious political consequences from this devastating situation.

But every prediction and promise he and his team have made have been disastrously wrong on Afghanistan. 

• • •