Monday, April 13, 2020

AG Barr just signaled that things are about to get ugly for the Russia collusion team


 AG Barr: Soros-funded Dem prosecutor candidates will lead to ...
Article by Kevin R. Brock (a former FBI agent) in "The Hill":

“Travesty” is not a nice word. It usually is applied to gross perversions of justice, and that apparently is the context Attorney General William Barr desired when he dropped it into an interview answer the other day in the breezy courtyard of the Department of Justice (DOJ). 

His composed, understated delivery almost disguised the weighty magnitude of that disturbing word and the loaded adjective that preceded it. “I think what happened to him,” he said, referring to the president and the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation into his campaign, “was one of the greatest travesties in American history.”  

Okay, it’s important to pause for a moment and absorb what the AG said. He just called an FBI investigation not just a travesty but one of the “greatest” travesties in the nation’s history. It was an unprecedented statement by an attorney general about his own department’s premier agency.

The FBI has made plenty of mistakes, but never in its 112-year history has an FBI investigation been characterized as a travesty, let alone one that equates to other hall-of-fame travesties in American history.

Is the AG’s assessment fair? The answer is entwined in his next statement: “Without any basis [the FBI] started this investigation into [Donald Trump’s] campaign ... .”

Oops, stop again right there. Mr. Barr is making a definitive statement about that which many of us have speculated all along, namely that the weirdly unprecedented investigative team put together by former FBI Director James Comey and Deputy Director Andrew McCabe did not have adequate legal reasons to open a case into the Trump campaign in the first place. The attorney general just confirmed that.

But wait a minute, doesn’t that directly contradict DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s assertion that the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation was justified? 

Two things to keep in mind regarding that inconsistency.  

First, remember that IG Horowitz reached two primary and controversial conclusions: 1) that there was adequate justification for starting the investigation, and 2) that there was no “evidence” of political bias as a motivating factor for the investigation. He based his conclusions, according to his report, solely on his interviews of the FBI individuals who started and ran the case — from Mr. Comey on down. That’s our story, they all said, and we’re stickin’ to it. 

This would be like an FBI agent interviewing four subjects suspected of robbing a bank and, after hearing their denials, concluding there was no evidence they committed the crime.

In fairness, the IG is not a criminal investigator and certainly not steeped in counterintelligence matters. The attorney general, on the other hand, owns the Attorney General Guidelines that dictate what it takes to initiate an FBI investigation, particularly of an American citizen. He is the ultimate arbiter.  

Which leads to the second point: The AG is logically being briefed on the progress and findings of U.S. Attorney John Durham’s investigation, which he commissioned to examine how the empty Russia collusion case got started in the first place and if it involved any wrongdoing on the part of the government. It is a safe bet that Mr. Durham is collecting evidence beyond the self-serving statements of the FBI principals involved. It also is now a safe bet that his findings will respectfully disagree with Mr. Horowitz’s.

Attorney General Barr communicates in a clear, understandable, calm-as-a-summer-evening manner uncommon in Washington. He undoubtedly did not get to his current position without being a skilled litigator, whose first rule is never make a statement to the court that you can’t back up. His newsworthy claim that there was zero basis for the FBI’s investigation stands, in all probability, on a mound of — in his words — “troubling” evidence now in his possession.

Many in the media immediately sputtered that the FBI was certainly justified because Trump campaign third-stringer George Papadopoulos told an Australian official, in a bar, that the Russians had email dirt on Hillary Clinton

The media may wish that Papadopoulos’s comment is sufficient justification to investigate a candidate for president, but it is not. An experienced Russia counterintelligence FBI agent would have recognized immediately that the Australian’s assertion, while moderately interesting for existing investigations of Russians, was not nearly enough to open an invasive investigation of American citizens.

The biased, overeager Comey and McCabe, however, opened an unprecedented full-blown investigation into a presidential campaign. Worse, Durham possibly will show that the Comey team started involving itself in questionable intelligence community activities that improperly ran confidential sources against Papadopoulos well before they officially opened a case — a potentially big no-no that, if proven, will not go well for all involved.

That is especially true in light of what the AG went on to say during his interview. He likened the Comey team’s inappropriate investigation and subsequent fallout to sabotage, or the effects of sabotage. “Sabotage” is another powerful word, technically a wartime crime, but a useful metaphor in its ramifications, since it implicates a range of supporting crimes such as conspiracy, fraud, perjury and false statements. 

The AG then ominously stated that he is not interested in simply receiving a “report” from Durham. He expects him to focus on possible criminal violations: “And if people broke the law, and we can establish that with the evidence, they will be prosecuted.”
  
These are incredibly hopeful words to many Americans who have come to believe — after the 2008 Wall Street-driven financial collapse, after the numerous Clinton family schemes and scandals, and after the wasteful Mueller “investigation” — that the powerful are never held accountable.

This is an attorney general projecting an air of confidence, not afraid to speak truth to slippery politicians even though the pushback will be fierce and personal. In light of that, it’s hard to imagine his confidence isn’t buttressed with mounting evidence of abusive government actions.  

This is what the Durham investigation could well conclude: A group of people aligned with or sympathetic to one political party conspired to illicitly use the authorities of the FBI to besmirch the opposing party’s presidential candidate — and that every effort should be made to indict those who can be charged as a result.

If true, such a thing has never happened before. It would represent a direct, unprecedented attack on our democracy, to fraudulently influence the voting public with lies ostensibly emanating as facts from a noble, traditionally trusted FBI. And that, indeed, would be a travesty of historical significance. One never to be repeated, we can hope, against any future president of either party.

 https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/492405-ag-barr-just-signaled-that-things-are-about-to-get-ugly-for-the-russia

Comrade Adams: Good Citizens Volunteer For Big Tech Health Surveillance


Comrade Adams is not happy with non-compliant citizens refusing to adjust their wrongful thinking to benefit the needs of our new state.  During these stressful times thought, without regard for collective need, is an indication a citizen may be a subversive.  Please report subversives to the Ministry of COVID Compliance, so they may be blocked from the benefits of the new union; and encouraged with enhanced support.


If wrong-thoughts continue to be expressed, it may become necessary for the Ministry to deduct 200 credits from your social compliance score.  Please do not put the Ministry in the position of having to make such decisions. Compliance is in your best interest.

State influence agent, Comrade Adams, helps to correct wrong-thinking.  The state will never force you to share your health records. Only if you wish to remove yourself from voluntary home confinement, access rights, and unlock your social privileges, will you be encouraged to join a health registry via your voluntary cell phone/transponder provider.

The Ministry would never force your compliance comrade.  You may choose to remain external to the Federated United State System (FUSS). You may also choose not to participate in the employment network, state services, access to civil transit, large entertainment gatherings, parks and restaurants.  Nothing is mandated.  Relax comrades, the Ministry is sensitive to your previous rights as we initiate our new, safer, society.

The COVID Compliance Ministry appreciates good citizens who voluntarily participate in the registry.  We reward good citizenship status with enhanced credits allowing access to a safe COVID Compliant Society.  A safer society; where the odds will always be in your favor.



Would it not be preferable in the new regime to have an alert on your phone warning you of your proximity to a non-compliant, possibly infected, citizen?

A rogue citizen could put a compliant society at risk of infection. They may not just carry biologics they could carry a more alarming virus of wrong-thought against the interests of the state.  Rogue citizens would be subversive to our new society.

Surely all good citizens would agree with Comrade Adams; there must be an emergency alert of some form identifying the larger audience to these subversive public enemies so we could respond accordingly.  The infrastructure is already established.  Society is familiar with “Amber Alerts”, this would be a slight modification to avoid viral spread.

Relax, it’s going to be lots of fun Comrades. Perhaps we just start with digital armbands, certifications within your portable transponder unit, to compliment our mandatory face masks. Each state could create their designated digital stamps for your COVID ID.

Traveling will be so much fun, we can collect the whole set. “Achtung Juden – New York”, “Juden Raus – California”, and the larger federal “Enemy of the People”, designation.

Social Distancing or House Arrest…. Details, comrades,… details.



Macron’s TV address: What did he say?

France's President Emmanuel Macron has just delivered his third TV address on the coronavirus, announcing the extension of a nationwide lockdown to stem the spread of coronavirus.
The lockdown, Macron said, would be extended until 11 May.
Under the rules, which are enforced by police, anyone who goes outside is required to carry a document stating their reason for leaving home.
Here’s what else he said:
  • He thanked essential workers in all sectors for “allowing our nation to continue to operate” during the pandemic
  • He admitted the French government was not prepared for the crisis, acknowledging shortcomings in delivering medical supplies to hospitals
  • France’s borders will remain closed to non-EU countries until further notice
  • Restaurants, bars, cinemas and other public venues will remain closed, and festivals cannot be held until mid-July
  • The elderly, and those with severe disabilities or suffering from chronic illnesses, must remain confined even after restrictions begin being eased
  • Schools, colleges and high schools will gradually reopen from 11 May
  • All people with symptoms of coronavirus will be tested from 11 May
  • In co-operation with its EU partners, France will ramp up research into developing a vaccine against coronavirus 
  •  

Former NY Times reporter sounds alarm...

Former NY Times reporter sounds alarm over flawed coronavirus models that have tossed economy into ‘freefall’ — and blasts the left

‘The people on the left hold themselves out as being science-driven … they think they’re smarter, but they won’t look at facts that won’t meet their narratives’

Alex Berenson is a former reporter who worked for the New York Times from 1999 to 2010 where he covered everything from the drug industry to Hurricane Katrina.

After that stint he devoted himself to writing books full time. Last year, his project “Tell Your Children” was published, which deals with the science around cannabis and mental illness.

But Berenson has again come into prominence amid the growing coronavirus pandemic, as he’s been posting data analysis revealing a disturbing conclusion: The models that have dictated mass business closures — and that have swiftly collapsed the American economy — are deeply flawed.

Fox News reporter Adam Shaw spoke with Berenson in detail regarding what he’s been learning — and he pulled no punches with his conclusion: “The response we have taken has caused enormous societal devastation; I don’t think that’s too strong a word.”

“In February I was worried about the virus. By mid-March I was more scared about the economy. But now I’m starting to get genuinely nervous,” he tweeted Wednesday. “This isn’t complicated. The models don’t work. The hospitals are empty. WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INDEFINITE LOCKDOWNS?”

Recently he’s been focusing on discrepancies within the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model. That model has come under renewed scrutiny as it has revised its metrics multiple times. It once predicted more than 90,000 deaths by August but recently issued a new estimate that has the figure closer to 60,000. Government officials say it’s a model that’s moving with what the country is doing.

And while Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of national experts on the White House coronavirus task force, said indicators show social distancing is working — “what you do with data will always outstrip a model. You redo your models, depending upon your data, and our data is telling us that mitigation is working” — Fox News said Berenson insists those models already figure in social distancing and other measures.

“Aside from New York, nationally there’s been no health system crisis. In fact, to be truly correct there has been a health system crisis, but the crisis is that the hospitals are empty,” he told the cable network. “This is true in Florida where the lockdown was late, this is true in South Carolina where the lockdown was early, it’s true in Oklahoma where there is no statewide lockdown. There doesn’t seem to be any correlation between the lockdown and whether or not the epidemic has spread wide and fast.”

Fox News also said Berenson has argued on Twitter that the drop in cases has come before lockdowns would have had an impact since it takes time for social distancing to work due to the time lag between infection and symptoms:


2/ The state’s “unmitigated” model “projects” that without mitigation, the peak of 62,000 will occur (will HAVE OCCURED, to be more accurate) on March 22...

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
3/ Only Ohio didn’t *actually* issue a lockdown order until Monday, March 23. Yes, lockdowns are such magic that they can PREVENT (theoretical) peaks that occurred before they were issued...

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
It’s the economy, stupid

The tattered state of the U.S. economy due to widespread business shutdowns isn’t lost at all on Berenson.

“There was incredible pressure to do something … so these lockdowns all cascaded, every governor tried to outdo the next,” he told Fox News. “And no one stopped and said, ‘OK what about Japan? They don’t seem to have a terrible epidemic, they wear masks, maybe we should wear masks.'”

Berenson added to the cable network that “we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now — the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening … the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don’t want to acknowledge it, so they say, ‘Oh, it’s the lockdown that saved us.'”

More from Fox News:
Berenson is not a known partisan. His Twitter feed and other works contain few references to specific politicians, and there’s no indication that he’s in this to bash or defend Trump or either political party. But he noted that, like with his conclusions on marijuana, there has been a distinct lack of interest from the left.
“I went to Yale, and I worked for the New York Times,” he told the cable network. “The people on the left hold themselves out as being science-driven, as being smarter; they think they’re smarter, but they won’t look at facts that won’t meet their narratives.”

Author: Dave Urbanski

Trump’s most devastating 2020 weapon will be Bernie Bros, insiders say



The Trump campaign’s secret weapon against Joe Biden will be Bernie Bros.

“Bernie Sanders supporters have been laying the groundwork for many of the lines of attack that the Trump campaign will be using against Joe Biden in the general,” a senior Trump campaign insider told The Post. “From his serial dishonesty, to his obvious issues, to his attempts to cut Social Security. We are going to have a field day.”

During the 2020 primaries, nobody’s knives for Biden were sharper than Sanders’ rabid supporters online and in far-left media.

Echoing critiques they made against Hillary Clinton in 2016, the Bernie Bros laced into Biden for being insufficiently left on a number of their core issues: healthcare, which they say would leave 10 million Americans uninsured as opposed to Sanders’ “Medicare for All”; Biden’s vote for the Iraq War in 2003, and his chumminess with billionaires and SuperPacs.

In an effort to court the Bros, the Biden campaign announced this week that he would call for lowering medicare eligibility to 60 and canceling student loan debt for some poor and middle-income families. The effort, however, was swiftly denounced as woefully insufficient by the Sandernistas — including his own former National Press Secretary Briahna Joy Gray.

Other criticism goes for the jugular.

“There’s much talk online, especially among Bernie Sanders supporters, about whether Joe Biden is in cognitive decline, whether he has dementia, why he’s so incoherent,” Al Jazeera pundit and Sanders uberfan Mehdi Hasan said in March 9 video. “Now I’m no doctor. I’m not going to make a medical diagnosis, apart from to say that in terms of his speech and his memory, there has clearly been a lot of decline in recent years.”

The video — published nearly a week after Sanders’ collapse on Super Tuesday — has been retweeted more than 6,000 times and racked up more than a million views in five weeks.

“We have a running tab here at Trump campaign headquarters of Mehdi Hassan’s many in-kind contributions,” laughed the campaign insider, saying Team Trump — which assiduously avoids using the D-word when talking about Biden — would never have put out something as audacious as Hasan’s video.

With Sanders’ eventual exit all but a foregone conclusion for weeks, there has been much handwringing within the Democratic Party over preventing “Broxit” — an exodus of Sanders’ most devout fans.

The threats and warnings from Sanders supporters throughout the primary are no idle threat. In 2016, 12% of them voted for Trump, according to an analysis by Cooperative Congressional Election Study. All told, 216,000 Bernie voters switched sides in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — far exceeding Trump’s 77,744 vote combined margin of victory in those swing states.

There were also untold numbers of Sanders die-hards who stayed home or bolted to the Green Party. Among them was Gray, who publicly admitted to voting for Jill Stein over Clinton in 2016.

The Bros mostly shrug off any responsibility for future Trump attack ads against the Democratic nominee.

“That’s the point of a primary and I think anyone treating legitimate and fair criticism during a primary as helping the opponent in the general election is disingenuous,” said Jordan Uhl, a progressive activist.

Modeling COVID -19 and the Lies of...





Modeling COVID-19
And The Lies Of Multiculturalism


Image by Grae Dickason from Pixabay


By Sarah Hoyt April 12, 2020


Perhaps the best thing that could come out of this entire debacle and turning America into a police state — where people are arrested for going somewhere in their cars and never leaving their cars — should be a total disdain for and disbelief in computer models.

The Imperial College of London model that terrified our largely scientifically illiterate politicos and therefore killed the world economy, like every other model that tries to model human behavior, assumed a spherical cow of uniform density in a frictionless vacuum.

What am I talking about? Exactly what I said.

Computer modeling can be incredibly useful, particularly when you’re modeling physics: an object dropped from such and such a place, which has such and such velocity, will impact on such and such a place with such and such force. However, as the mother and wife of STEM people for whom physics is a game and who create such models for fun, I know that the accuracy of the model depends on how much you put into it and how much of the real factors on that day, in that place, you can put in.

That spherical cow of uniform density in a frictionless vacuum has long been a joke among physicists, because of course cows aren’t spherical, nor do they have a uniform density, and a vacuum, such as we know it, is never frictionless (unless it’s in a small, contained enclosure, usually in a laboratory, a vacuum contains small particles.) And all of those variables mean that your model will be wrong if they’re not included in it. So, at its basis, if you’re designing a computer model for fun, or to settle a bet with your brother (yes, my family is weird), you can ignore all the variables. When you’re actually modeling a real-life situation, you cannot and should not.

Unfortunately, we have willfully and on purpose, over the course of the last 50 years, blinded ourselves to one of the most important factors when modeling disease in human populations: culture. We have taught our kids in school that culture is food and clothing, and sometimes -- but not always -- language, but that culture is inherently the same underneath those trappings.

That is what's assumed by those models, and it is enough of a lie to be a d*mned lie.

Mind you, the computer modeling of humans in general is always hazardous. This is why no one can give accurate predictions of what will happen with the economy at any given time, and that is why most legislators are completely baffled when the second- and third-order effects of their legislation hit. Because to them we are all spherical cows in a frictionless vacuum.

However, culture is the most important – or should be the most important – in modeling the spread of any disease in a human population. Next and almost equal to it, should be the physical home of that culture: where do the people live? How dense is the population? How much air do they share?

The models for how bad COVID-19 would be, and the measures for mitigating its spread all, without exception, ignore these factors.

I don’t think COVID-19 is a hoax. (Though frankly this news makes me wonder, but that’s another matter.) I do think it has got really bad “in clusters.”

I also think if you go and look at the clusters, you’ll find that there are reasons why it got exceptionally bad there, but not anywhere else. And it was never going to get as bad anywhere else. And the measures should have been taken specifically in those places, without the ruinous cost of crashing the economy.

For instance, my friend in Albany, Georgia, tells me he assumes part of the reason it got so bad in his neighborhood (the worst per capita in the U.S. last I looked) is that “we are the touchiest, most social people I know.” I.e. there is a lot of touching and hugging.

At a guess this is the reason it got so bad in Italy, too, but not nearly as bad in Germany, where frankly people aren’t that touchy/feely/huggy.

New York City — Do I really need to say this? — is not Colorado.

I can go months without using an elevator. I can’t remember the last time I used a subway, and the last time I used public transport was last year while visiting my parents in Portugal – and even then only when I was going downtown Porto because it’s almost impossible to park – and if I keep the curtains closed in the bathroom, I can’t see my closest neighbor (who admittedly is close, but that's on one side). That’s in Denver. I have open space in the front and back of the house, and the only people I share air with are my family.

Now, in NYC, besides the fact they all live in modified closets with shared air, you can’t get anywhere without rubbing elbows with strangers. Subways and elevators are simply parts of daily life for most New Yorkers. And as for social distancing… well! Every time I go East, when I hit the first layover, I want to start singing, “Don’t stand so close to me.”

So, would a complete lockdown of the city, with perhaps distribution of food so the grocery stores could be closed, make sense for NYC? Sure it would. Of course it would.

A grave violation of everyone’s rights? Sure. No doubt about that. But perhaps necessary for a limited time in a limited space.

Does a complete lockdown in places where the culture is completely different make any sense? No. Also no. With a side of no.

Now, there are still differences that don’t make a lot of sense, like the difference in death rates between Portugal and Spain, but that might be entirely because we don’t – frankly – know much of events that take place in other countries. When I told my mother (yes, still in Portugal, as is all my blood-family other than my sons) that I couldn’t figure it out, she said something about various demonstrations and civil unrest in the lead up to the outbreak. She said it in the off-hand manner that assumes of course I’ve heard of this, but I’m ashamed to know I hadn't since frankly I rarely read European news these days. So I have no idea how significant that is.

The other thing is that I remember – lost in the flurry of early news – that Spain’s first response to this was the nationalizing of its health care system. Which means that before this “emergency” Spain had (as to an extent even we do) parallel public and private health systems. At the onset of the epidemic, the private health care system was folded into the public.

Not only would this have caused the usual difficulty of socialized medicine – that a patient is treated as a figure and that figure is in the debit column – but it would also undoubtedly have caused confusion, disorganization, and general mess as many different hierarchies were folded into an overarching one, and doubly so, because Mediterranean cultures are not really good at organization in general. That alone would explain things like the abandonment of elderly people in old-age homes (in some cases part of the health care system) as well as other horrors we heard of. These problems are not caused by malice, but by utter pants-on-head disorganization to a level Americans can’t even conceptualize.

Our media relays scenes of panic and death without the slightest context that might make the rest of us realize that the factors leading to those are unlikely to obtain in our own neighborhood. This is partly because most of our so-called journalists are incredibly ignorant and glib. And it is partly because they think crashing the economy and blaming it on Trump will get the Democrat Spokeszombie elected. But that's a whole 'nother matter, for another article.

So, yes, COVID-19 got very bad in spots (though the rates of both infection and death surfacing as more studies in Europe are done, as well as the rates of infection and death for the Diamond Princess, still indicate that those “bad spots” are nowhere near as bad as has been advertised).

And we might have been justified in closing down, isolating, and stopping travel to and from those spots.

It would have been economically painful enough since one of those spots is NYC. However, with the rest of the country (or the majority of it) working, we should have been fine.

It wouldn’t have been the disaster that it’s been made by the blithe "multiculturalist" assumption that “culture” is all about clothes and food, and not about how people behave and act in concert, due to cultural assumptions and the physical environment of their daily lives.

I can only pray that in the destroyed hopes of our children and grandchildren, in the scorched landscape of the world economy, in the revolt – dear Lord, I hope it’s a revolt to come otherwise the United States as we knew it is dead – against the police state imposed during this madness, people will see what multiculturalism and inane computer models have wrought.

I hope if no other good comes of this, that people will open their eyes to the insanity of treating humans as equal widgets who all behave the same way and all cultures as essentially the same under their colorful wrappings.

If we learn that lesson, then perhaps greater insanity – like the Green New Deal or ever new and shinier forms of socialism – can be avoided along with even greater mortality, ruin, and blighted lives.


Don't Forget to Recommend
and Follow us at our Disqus
Homepage


The Criticism of Those States Who Issued No (or “Late”) Stay-at-Home Orders Doesn’t Really Hold Water



The Criticism of Those States Who Issued No (or "Late") Stay-at-Home Orders Doesn't Really Hold Water

Article by Susie Moore in "RedState":


A comment from a family member the other day about the Governor of Missouri, Mike Parson, “waffling” regarding issuing a stay-at-home order in response to the coronavirus got me to thinking about something: I’ve seen media criticism regarding those governors who’ve declined to issue statewide stay-at-home orders and those who were later in doing so. Presumably, that criticism is borne of the belief that the failure to implement such orders will result (or has resulted) in increased numbers of infections and, possibly, deaths.

It will likely come as little surprise that I’m a defender of Governor Parson on this front. (Full disclosure: I was at my county’s Lincoln Day celebration the evening Missouri’s first case of coronavirus was announced. The Governor was slated to be there but was called away in light of the announcement.) As the pandemic has unfolded, Gov. Parson has, in my observation, maintained a steady, calm approach, initially leaving it local officials to make the call best suited for their respective communities, though he did eventually issue a statewide order which took effect April 6th. (Note: St. Louis City and St. Louis County issued stay-at-home orders that took effect on March 23rd; adjacent St. Charles County — where I reside — followed suit the following day.)

Parson’s (and other governors’) decision to hold off met with some media criticism. (See, e.g., here and here. My colleague, SisterToldjah, also highlighted some of that criticism here.) Though he was giving regular updates regarding the state’s response to the situation, I was, frankly, gobsmacked by the number of people howling at him every time he tweeted about it to shut the state down — people who, undoubtedly, do not agree with his politics and would never vote for him. Yet, they were flat-out demanding that he restrict their freedom; shut the whole state down — consequences be damned. This, while much of the state had few — if any — cases.


 COVID-19 update for April 7: 3,037 positive patients with 508 hospitalized patients. We are saddened to report we have lost 53 Missourians to COVID-19.

To learn more about Missouri’s COVID-19 response and statistics, visit http://Health.Mo.Gov/coronavirus . |


So…like I said, it got me to thinking: What was going on in the states around Missouri? (Little bit of trivia: Missouri and Tennessee have the distinction of being the two states with the most border states — eight.) And, perhaps more importantly, what was going on in states with early stay-at-home orders versus those with later (or no) stay-at-home orders?

So, I got to digging. I pulled together stats for Missouri and each of its bordering states. I was particularly interested to compare Missouri and Illinois — for a couple of reasons: First, and foremost, I live and work on the Missouri/Illinois border, so am fairly attuned to what’s going on in the bi-state area. Second, Illinois was one of the earliest states to implement a statewide shutdown. Third, Missouri being a red state and Illinois being a blue state adds a certain degree of…intrigue.

I wanted to take into account more than just pure COVID-19 numbers, so I also pulled population numbers, the population of each state’s larges metro area, and the political affiliation of their governors and makeup of their legislatures. I started with Missouri and its eight border states. And then, for good measure, I added in the four other “holdout” states — Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming (whose approach to social distancing I wrote about last week.)

I even pulled together some fancy tables to reflect the data. (These tables reflect the data for 4/11 and 4/12 – current as of 10:30 pm CDT. The virus totals were pulled from worldometers.):




The Criticism of Those States Who Issued No (or "Late") Stay-at-Home Orders Doesn't Really Hold Water

 The Criticism of Those States Who Issued No (or "Late") Stay-at-Home Orders Doesn't Really Hold Water

From left-to-right, the tables track: Date of first case; total cases; total deaths; total tests; cases per million people, deaths per million people, tests per million people, statewide population, largest metro area population, and date of statewide shutdown (stay-at-home order).

I did not include the political affiliation/makeup information in the tables (largely because it doesn’t result in a numeric rank so as to make much table-sense.) However, I thought it somewhat interesting to note that of the 13 states surveyed, only three have Democrat governors (Illinois, Kentucky, and Kansas), and only one has a majority-Democrat legislature (Illinois.) In fact, nine of the states in question have Republican super-majorities.

So, what stands out in all this? Well, for one thing, Illinois. It basically runs the table, so to speak, save for tests per million people. (Interestingly enough, the states with the highest number of tests per million are (other than Tennessee) those without stay-at-home orders in place.) Illinois has the highest number of cases (by far), the highest number of deaths (by far), the highest number of tests and, perhaps not surprisingly, the highest number of cases and deaths per million people. Of the states surveyed, Illinois also has the largest population (by far) and the largest metro area population (by far). Keep in mind — looking at the cases and deaths “per million people” factors in that population differential.

Most importantly, Illinois was one of the earliest states to issue a statewide stay-at-home order. Governor J.B. Pritzker issued the order which went into effect on March 21st. While Illinois had one of the earliest reported cases of coronavirus (the first case was reported on January 24th), the number of cases remained low through the early part of March. As of March 12th, there were only 32 cases. On March 21st, the day the order went into effect there were 727 cases in Illinois. Obviously, there was a fairly significant jump in mid-March and one might surmise that Pritzker’s decision was a reasonable reaction to the situation as it was developing. Fair enough.

But if that’s the case, then what justifies the criticism of other governors for doing the same thing in relation to their respective states? Or are we just going to subscribe to the notion that all states are exactly alike? That their needs and circumstances are identical? In which case, why even have governors making these decisions? Why not just insist that King President Trump decree a nationwide lockdown? Never mind the fact that the vast majority of states aren’t experiencing the level — or rate — of infection and deaths that Illinois is.

Some might contend that it’s only a matter of time until the infection spreads and the rate of infection in other states matches that of Illinois. But if that were the case, then wouldn’t we already see states around Illinois experiencing similar numbers?

Conversely, if statewide stay-at-home orders were the key, wouldn’t we see a lower rate of infection in the states that issued them early than in the states that issued them late – or haven’t at all?

But that’s not what we’re seeing. In either respect. States immediately adjacent to Illinois – particularly the northeast quadrant, where Chicago (and the vast majority of Illinois cases) are located – don’t have similar infection numbers or rates. Wisconsin? 3,341 total cases, with 587 cases per million people. Indiana? Indiana is a closer call – but even they have a lower rate (1,194 per million people) – and a lot of those are centered largely around Indianapolis, not Illinois-adjacent areas.

Which brings me back to Missouri – Illinois’ neighbor to the west. Where is Missouri in relation to Illinois? One-fifth the total number of cases, one-sixth the total number of deaths, a case per million rate of 683 (versus Illinois’ 1,626) and deaths per million at 19 (versus 56). And this, despite a stay-at-home order that came 16 days later.

And what of those states without a stay-at-home order at all? Eight of the thirteen included in this analysis remain without one. Which are the states on the lower end of the caseload and infection rate? Seven of those eight states. Utah appears to be the outlier here. However, Utah also has a decent-sized population and, perhaps more significantly, the highest rate of tests per million people – which may simply mean that a higher number of tests = a higher number of cases. You’ll note, they maintain one of the lower numbers of total deaths and the second-lowest number of deaths per million people.

All of which is to say: There doesn’t really appear to be much correlation between the implementation of a statewide stay-at-home order and infection or death numbers or rates. Rather, the clearer correlation appears to exist between population density and infection/death numbers and rates — among the states and within each state. (So…wait…you mean this virus is no respecter of state boundaries or laws, but rather, hops from person-to-person more easily in more densely populated areas? Knock me over with a feather!)

Oh, and while we’re drawing conclusions, one might note that, while the first two stay-at-home orders in the states studied came from Democrat governors, the infection/death numbers and rates differ between those two significantly. Illinois is hurting, while Kansas is doing okay. Keep in mind — Illinois has a population of 12.67 million, while Kansas only has 2.91 million. Kentucky, which has the third Democrat governor, sits in the middle of the pack. It also has no statewide stay-at-home order (although apparently its Governor doesn’t take all that kindly to church congregations…well, congregating. READ: Federal Judge Shocks Many When He Informs Louisville Mayor That the US Constitution Applies There and Churchgoers Show up for Easter Services, Met With Nails and the Police After Governor Forbid Public Gatherings.)

Maybe…just maybe…what all of this means is that each state’s governor is better situated to assess his/her state’s respective needs and appropriate response to this pandemic. It may even mean that a governor’s decision to hang back and let local officials make the best call for their respective constituencies isn’t such a bad thing after all. Go figure!

https://www.redstate.com/smoosieq/2020/04/13/the-criticism-of-those-states-who-issued-no-or-late-stay-at-home-orders-doesnt-really-hold-water/